The New England Patriots head back to Foxboro in week 13 to take on the Minnesota Vikings in their final matchup of the season against the NFC North. Last Word on Pro Football’s Dale Lavine predicted that the Patriots would fall against two NFC North opponents this season: the Chicago Bears and either the Green Bay Packers or the Vikings. Since Xavier Rhodes will likely not be making an appearance in this week 13 matchup, things are looking bad for the bold predictions and really good for Josh Gordon.
Week 13 New England Patriots Wide Receivers Report
Vikings Defensive Outlook
Rhodes injured his hamstring late in the game on Sunday Night Football last week, and he did not appear at practice all week. Lucky for Rhodes, his hamstring injury will not require surgery. Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer says that the injury is “very mild” despite how bad the injury may have looked.
Mike Zimmer says Xavier Rhodes’ hamstring injury is “very, very mild” contrary to some reports out there that predicted otherwise.
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) November 26, 2018
While this may have led to some speculation that Rhodes would play this week, it seems extremely unlikely.
The Vikings have been the best team in the league against number one wide receivers, and this is almost exclusively due to how good Xavier Rhodes is at corner. The top opposing receiver has averaged a paltry 58.7 yards per game against the Vikings.
With Rhodes out, Trae Waynes has to step up as the top cornerback on the field. Waynes isn’t a terrible cornerback. He allowed a passer rating of absolute zero in week seven against Sam Darnold and finished out last season on an absolutely searing streak. But he’s no Xavier Rhodes. Neither are Mackensie Alexander and Mike Hughes.
Alexander found himself on the injury report for the Vikings on Thursday as well with a knee injury. It seems likely that he’ll play, perhaps on standard rotation with Hughes, but the secondary situation in Minnesota looks a little dire.
Watch Out for Josh Gordon
Without Rhodes to keep Gordon in check, expect the big man to open up. For the second week in a row, the Patriots will have all of their favorite offensive weapons at their disposal. The presence of Rob Gronkowski ate into the 100-yard prediction I had for Gordon last week, to be sure. The overreliance on Gordon that I accused Tom Brady of a few weeks ago seems to have been dealt away quietly.
But Gordon could be in line for a massive play for a score this week. The Vikings have allowed only 14 receiving touchdowns this season, the best in the league. However, only two of those were allowed by Rhodes. Without Rhodes draped all over him, Gordon’s chances of making it into the end zone jump up significantly. Moreover, the Vikings have allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more this season, placing them well into the bottom half of the league. Josh Gordon has proven his ability to make big plays, and he should showcase that this week.
Supporting Cast and Crew
Zimmer acknowledged this week that the Patriots are probably the best play-action team in the country. That was largely evident last week against the New York Jets. According to Evan Lazar of CLNS, Brady has completed 90.9 percent of his play-action passes and has averaged 11.2 yards per attempt in the last two games.
Fun fact: The Vikings are terrible against play-action. They are ranked 20th in the league in passer rating against play-action and allow 14.1 yards per reception. The Patriots are going to take advantage of that.
Cordarrelle Patterson and James White, the Patriots two most versatile weapons, should both play pivotal roles in selling play-action passes this weekend. The threat of Sony Michel makes the play-action even more successful, given the rookie’s proven ability to punish defenses on the ground.
Don’t Forget Dorsett
According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings defense is its worst at defending short passes when they’re thrown to the left side of the field. Their DVOA on short-left passes is a measly 6.1 percent, ranked 26th in the league.
As David Latham pointed out this week, Phillip Dorsett has been phenomenal in this area of the field. Dorsett has a team-leading 82 percent success rate on targets short-left. Julian Edelman‘s versatility be damned. Edelman and Gronk will get their fair share of targets over the middle on those gorgeous crossers, but the Patriots should give Dorsett the respect he deserves as a short threat this week.
Last Word on Week 13
Xavier Rhodes failing to appear in this matchup is a bit of a godsend. The Patriots have been relying on Josh Gordon a lot lately, a reliance that has sometimes failed them. With Rhodes off the field, the Brady-Gordon connection gets a little bit smoother. When the Brady-Gordon connection gets smoother, the Edelman and Gronk connections begin to open up a little bit more. All this to say, the Patriots receiving offense should be a thing of beauty at home in Foxboro this week.
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