As the New England Patriots enter a much-needed bye, it’s time to take a look at how the Patriots wide receivers have fared through the first ten weeks of the 2018 season.

New England Patriots Receivers: By The Numbers

Target Share

Figure 1. Statistics from NFL’s NextGen Stats and ESPN. Visualization performed in Tableau. 

Expectations for Julian Edelman‘s return were extremely high, but the reality of his return was overwhelming. Prior to week five, Phillip Dorsett was leading the receiving corps in targets consistently from week to week. Between Dorsett, Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson, the receiving corps were seeing anywhere from ten to 17 targets per game. (James White, of course, led the whole team in targets every week except for week three during this period.)

Tom Brady targeted Edelman nine times in his very first game back, the first time he had played a meaningful snap of football since Super Bowl LII. Edelman’s nine targets outdid anything any wide receiver had seen all season so far. Since his return, the lowest number of targets he has seen is seven, tying Dorsett’s season high. And Edelman’s targets rose every week from week six onwards.

Poor Phillip Dorsett

Dorsett was actually performing pretty well, with the exception of his gross misuse in week three against the Detroit Lions.

Figure 2. Statistics from NFL’s NextGen Stats and ESPN. Visualization performed in Tableau.

Dorsett was averaging more than eight yards per reception and posted a perfect catch rate twice in the first five weeks of the season. But, as Fig. 1 shows, as soon as Edelman returned to action, Dorsett’s production took a nosedive. In fact, everyone’s production took a nosedive.*

Except for Josh Gordon‘s.

(*It is worth noting that there were a few passes clearly intended for Hogan in recent weeks that apparently did not meet ESPN’s criteria as a “target” and thus did not appear in the dataset used for the visualization in Figure 1. Nonetheless, these targets were few and far between.)

Inexplicable Reliance

Figure 3. Statistics from NFL’s NextGen Stats and ESPN. Visualization performed in Tableau.

Gordon has posted a catch rate above 60 percent just twice this season, but his targets continue to climb.

The offense seems to be relying on Gordon more and more as the season progresses. It’s an undeniable fact that Gordon has been one of the best receivers in the league this season in terms of yards after the catch per reception. He’s proven his ability to bully and juke his way up the field despite swarms of defensive backs. Gordon has posted two massive 55-yard gains this season.

But why continue targeting a receiver that has not been catching the ball well on the off-chance that he can break off a big play?

A Question of Trust

The continued reliance on Julian Edelman is easily explained. When facing above-average pass rushes, as the Patriots did in weeks seven and eight, it makes sense for an aging Brady to get the ball out quickly to short threats like Edelman and White. Edelman’s target shares reflect that type of gameplay.

But Brady has made it clear that trust is a big part of his offense. Mike Lombardi was quoted early in the season about how Brady will never trust Patterson. ESPN often refers to the unwavering trust that Brady has in Rob Gronkowski. The folks at the Boston Globe went so far as to create a “trust tree” for the Patriots star quarterback. Even Brady himself has been quoted several times talking about how important trust and dependability have been to him.

And Brady trusts Josh Gordon. The Patriots news coverage in early October was saturated with the notion of Josh Gordon having earned Tom Brady’s trust. (Exhibits A-H)

With Gronkowski churning out a disappointing season fraught with injury, Brady has turned to the other outsized receiving threat on the team with an arguably concerning amount of reliance.

Moving Forward

Brady knows what’s happening on the field. He’s more than aware. He admitted on Kirk & Callahan this week that he has “to figure out a way to get the ball to everybody” in order to return the offense to form.

“When everyone is making plays, I think our offense is tough to stop,” Brady said. “That will certainly be something we focus on and make sure everyone is getting looks that they deserve and go make the plays when we get them.”

Also in that interview, Brady addresses Hogans lack of looks in recent weeks:

“I am just letting coverage dictate where it goes. It’s not like we are throwing into triple coverage, we’re throwing into 1-on-1. … Chris [Hogan] didn’t get as many as he would like, but again, we just have to look at how things have looked the past few weeks and figure out how to get everyone more looks, more targets.”

Brady referenced a fourth-down play against the Tennessee Titans in week ten where Hogan had beat Malcolm Butler down the sideline and would have been able to make a play for the first down. Brady said, “I had a chance to throw it down the sidelines, but I was kind of focused on Julian.”

Whether this is Brady admitting that his “trust” in specific receivers cost the team a fourth-down conversion late in a tough game or this is Brady trying to explain away Hogan’s diminished looks, it seems indicative of the problem of overreliance in the Patriots offense.

The Patriots have a very good chance of winning out. According to ESPN, the Patriots have the second-easiest schedule through the second half of the season. When the Patriots return to the field after the bye, they ought to have plenty of opportunities to spread the ball around against a mediocre New York Jets receiving defense.

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