With the NFL’s 23rd ranked defense in both points and total yards allowed, no one would dare call the New Orleans Saints defense a dominant unit. Their pass defense has taken a massive step backwards after growth in 2017, allowing a fifth-worst 300.0 passing yards per game thus far. However, these numbers don’t tell the entire story.
What’s hidden behind the explosive pass plays allowed by this unit is their significant improvement against the run. After allowing a fifth-worst 4.4 yards per carry rushing average in 2017 and over 100 yards per game, the Saints currently lead all defenses with 74.1 rushing yards allowed per game and a 3.2 rushing average allowed this season. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rushing game since their week one loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While this progress is encouraging, the Saints remain relatively untested against the run. The only top-ten rushing offenses they’ve played are the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins and they’ve yet to go against a team with a top-10 rushing average.
That will change this week as the Los Angeles Rams come to town with Todd Gurley, who currently leads all running backs with 100.0 yards per game and 11 touchdowns.
Todd Gurley Presents Ultimate Challenge for New Orleans Saints Top-Ranked Run Defense
Overview
Last season Gurley developed into the NFL’s most complete running back and was named Offensive Player of the Year. Gurley rushed for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns at 4.7 yards per carry and emerged as a receiving threat with 64 catches for 788 yards and six touchdowns. At his current pace, he will easily top his rushing numbers from last season. Midway through the season, Gurley is projected to finish 2018 with 1600 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns.
Considering what he’s done to most defenses the last two years, the Saints fared pretty well against Gurley in a 26-20 loss to Los Angeles last season. Gurley rushed for 74 yards at 4.35 yards per carry, falling below his 2017 season average in both categories. Gurley’s longest run went for just 14 yards, though he did get open for a 31-yard reception. Gurley didn’t score a rushing or receiving touchdown, which happened in only four other games last season.
A Big Reason Why Gurley is Thriving
One of Gurley’s biggest assets is the Rams passing game. Quarterback Jared Goff ranks in the top ten in every meaningful passing category. His 9.6 yards per pass attempt leads all quarterbacks with 100 or more completions. When facing a big-play passing game like the Rams have, most defenses are forced to back up their defenders and leave themselves vulnerable to run plays.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Gurley has reaped the benefits of lighter defensive fronts, facing eight-men boxes on only 9.47 percent of his runs. The only two backs with a lower percentage in this category are Wendell Smallwood and Kenyan Drake. Both are part-time players that have received less than 50% of their respective team’s rushing attempts.
The Rams’ frequent use of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) is a big reason why they’ve been able to set up lighter boxes for Gurley. According to Sharp Football Stats, Los Angeles has run 489 plays from 11 personnel, amounting to 94 percent of their play calls. That’s 129 more plays and a 15 percent higher ratio than any other NFL offense.
The Rams have had incredible success with this personnel. Goff has a 110.4 passer rating in 11 personnel and averages 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Los Angeles averages 5.2 yards per carry and has scored 10 touchdowns when running from 11 personnel. With 263 pass plays and 226 run plays called, the Rams have a fairly even pass-run ratio with 11 personnel looks, causing a high degree of uncertainty for opposing defenses.
Outlook for New Orleans
The Saints will have to find a creative solution to this Rams approach. In an effort to assist their struggling secondary, the Saints haven’t been crowing the line of scrimmage much, and clearly, this matchup would be a bad time to start frequently loading the box.
Schematically, the Saints could try putting extra safeties on the field to counter 11 personnel looks rather than cornerbacks. This is what they did last year against Los Angeles, with four different safties receiving 24 or more defensive snaps. This was done mostly out of necessity since the Saints were without both starting cornerbacks at the time, but it also seemed to help New Orleans contain Gurley.
Speaking more generally, winning this matchup will come down to fundamentals and effort. The Saints must always be mentally prepared for a run and swarm Gurley when he has the ball. The defensive line, which has thrived lately needs to win in the trenches.
It will be an extremely important game for linebacker Demario Davis, who’s been a big part of the Saints’ success against the run. Davis is currently the NFL’s top-graded linebacker against the run by Pro Football Focus and he has 55 tackles this season, including five for losses. He should be on the field for every defensive snap, which he’s done in two games already this season.
The unpredictability of the Rams’ offense relies largely on Gurley. If the Saints can minimize his impact, Los Angeles will become more one-dimensional. If the Saints run defense is as good as their stats suggest, they should be up to the task.
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