It’s NFL Week Seven and we have another NFL London game to look forward to. This one, between the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers, is going to be a matinee, 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff. All you NFL fans make sure you’re well stocked on drinks and munchables. It’s going to be a long day of football.
As for the Seer of Sayers, Nostrathomas took a beating on his top three picks. The Seattle Seahawks buried the Oakland Raiders as expected but the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers crapped the bed.
Still, Nostrathomas nailed last Sunday night, picking the New England Patriots to win and the Kansas City Chiefs to cover. That helped pull Week Six over the .500 mark. Nostrathomas finished 8-6 against the spread and 11-3 straight up.
Nostrathomas NFL Week Seven Picks
For the season Nostrathomas is now 7-9-2 with his top picks, 33-40-2 against the spread and 45-26-1 straight up. Now it’s time to break down NFL Week Seven.
Top NFL Week Seven Bets
Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 (9:30 a.m. ET, Wembley Stadium, London, England)
The Chargers have lost two games this season, one to Kansas City at home, the other in the battle of Los Angeles vs the Rams. In their other four games they’ve won by a differential of 53 points.
Philip Rivers is currently having one of the best seasons of what should be a Hall of Fame career. He’s second in the league with a 115.1 passer rating, is fourth with an 8.13 net yards per pass attempt average and leads the NFL with 15 touchdown passes.
Tennessee is currently one of the toughest teams in the league to score on. Opponents drive an average of 18.1 yards per point scored, which averages to 126.7 yards of offense per seven points. It’s their offense that has failed to support that defensive effort.
Lead off your Week Seven parlay with the “home team” in this NFL London matinee game.
Los Angeles Chargers 29 Tennessee Titans 16
Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (1 p.m. ET; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)
Has Nostrathomas lost what’s left of his beer-addled mind by predicting that the 1-5 Indianapolis Colts will cover this size of a spread against the visiting Buffalo Bills? When Buffalo has to start recently signed Derek Anderson to avoid the prospect of Nathan Peterman taking snaps, you know, as a team, that you’re nearing the bottom of the barrel.
Buffalo can still play enough defense to stay competitive but Indianapolis can bring more than enough offense to this game with Andrew Luck at quarterback to cover a spread of this size.
Indianapolis Colts 25 Buffalo Bills 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs -6, Over 58 (Sunday Night Football, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO)
Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs into their third prime-time matchup in seven weeks, this time at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
While head coach Marvin Lewis’ squad has recovered from a mediocre 2017 to challenge the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North, Kansas City has been playing at a championship level so far, six weeks into this season.
The Andy Dalton to A.J. Green connection is thriving again. Along with Joe Mixon at running back, the Bengals have an offense that can do damage against the Chiefs. However, Cincinnati doesn’t have the defense to slow down the Chiefs stratosphere level offense.
Along with Kansas City -6, take the over 58 points in this game. With the rise in scoring across the NFL so far this season bookmakers have been struggling to adjust to the higher point totals. This game should crack 60.
Kansas City Chiefs 35 Cincinnati Bengals 28
The Best of the Rest
New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons -4 (Monday Night Football, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)
The New York Giants will have four extra days to dwell on their 34-13 embarrassment at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Atlanta Falcons are heading into their bye week in danger of completely falling out of the NFC playoff picture.
The Giants should be able to move the ball against an Atlanta team that struggles to stop the run. Saquon Barkley fantasy owners have to be licking their chops because of that. They also struggle to rush the passer and are last in preventing third down conversions.
Why take the Falcons -4 then? New York is bad on the defensive side of the ball and if it weren’t for Barkley they wouldn’t have an offense either. At age 37, Eli Manning is breaking down. He ranks near the bottom of the NFL in net passing yards per attempt and that’s with Odell Beckham, Jr on the roster. Either Manning can no longer get the ball to Beckham or won’t throw downfield to him.
Running backs rarely win games by themselves. Quarterbacks are the key and the Falcons have Matt Ryan. That’s why they cover.
Atlanta Falcons 25 New York Giants 19
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars -5 (1 p.m. ET; EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL)
This is a battle between two 3-3 teams for first place in the AFC South.
Something is not clicking with this Houston Texans team so far in 2018. Yes, they’re on a three-game win streak but it consists of overtime wins over Indianapolis and the Dallas Cowboys plus a Nathan Peterman aided win over Buffalo. At the same time, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been playing like they’re still hung over from their Week Two victory over the New England Patriots.
The deciding factor in this game comes down to trends. Houston is 7-13 as underdogs since 2016. The Jaguars are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against the AFC South and 5-1 in their last six games.
Jacksonville Jaguars 25 Houston Texans 18
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins -1.5 (4:25 p.m. ET; FedEx Field, Washington, DC)
A lot of handicappers are getting carried away by the Dallas Cowboys big win at home last week against Jacksonville. Remember what Nostrathomas said before Week Two about overreacting. That win made Dallas 3-0 at home. They’re also 0-3 on the road.
The home and away records are what this game comes down to between these two rivals. The Washington Redskins are 2-1 at home and are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six at home.
Washington Redskins 23 Dallas Cowboys 19
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ)
After two straight fourth-place finishes in the AFC East, it’s looking like the New York Jets are starting to figure a few things out. This is going to be a very good game and Nostrathomas would really like to take the Jets at home but the Minnesota Vikings are a couple of years ahead in development.
The Vikings are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 road games against the AFC East. Take the road favorite to win and cover.
Minnesota Vikings 32 New York Jets 27
New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (4:05 p.m. ET; M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD)
Drew Brees is having a season for the history books for the New Orleans Saints but this week he faces one of the top defenses in the NFL. New Orleans also faces a top team on defense, the Vikings, next week in a Sunday night slugfest.
In the 10 defensive stats among the 23 that Nostrathomas uses to analyze games, the Baltimore Ravens are first in seven and second in two others. If this game were being played in New Orleans, Nostrathomas might count the Saints as a stronger play but not this weekend in Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens 26 New Orleans Saints 23
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET; Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)
Both the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles have been tough for Nostrathomas to get a handle on this season.
The Eagles are coming off of a big Thursday night, Week Six win but that was against the Giants, who are currently vying for another top-five draft pick in 2019. Looking at this game with cold logic, Carolina is the better team and getting healthier by the week.
Take the road dog to win and cover.
Carolina Panthers 23 Philadelphia Eagles 19
New England Patriots -3 vs Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET; Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)
It’s tempting to take the Bears here as the home underdog. The New England Patriots struggle to get to the quarterback and that’s when Mitch Trubisky thrives. Chicago also puts one of the top defenses in the league on the field, even with Khalil Mack slowed by an ankle injury.
Still, Tom Brady and company are a Super Bowl caliber team. Will New England show some fatigue after winning one of the most exciting games of the season last Sunday Night? It’s possible, but the Bears still need to prove they can beat a top-tier team before Nostrathomas can pick them to cover a game like this.
New England Patriots 30 Chicago Bears 24
Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (1 p.m. ET; Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)
The Cleveland Browns had kept every game within one score for the first five games of the season before getting steamrolled by the Chargers last week. Now they travel to face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has lost three straight.
This game is tough to pick but Jameis Winston played well last week in his first start back from suspension. That and the Buccaneers being home is enough to pick them to cover here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Cleveland Browns 20
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins +3 (1 p.m. ET; Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL)
The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week which is probably why they’re favored by three despite traveling south to play the Miami Dolphins.
Can the Lions succeed where the Bears failed last week? They’re capable but they have one trend going against them. The Dolphins are 3-0 at home this season while Detroit is 0-2 on the road. Take the home dog in a close game, even with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
Miami Dolphins 24 Detroit Lions 22
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 vs San Francisco 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET; Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)
There is absolutely no doubt that the Los Angeles Rams can beat the San Francisco 49ers by more than 9.5 points no matter where this game is played. Still, this game screams backdoor cover.
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan gets a lot of credit for making C.J. Beathard look like a genuine NFL quarterback. He’s been so successful that the 49ers almost escaped Green Bay with a win last Monday night.
Still, unless the Rams take their foot off the gas pedal in the second half, this game is all Los Angeles. If you must bet this game you can’t go against one of the top NFC Super Bowl contenders.
Los Angeles Rams 34 San Francisco 49ers 20
