Some people are just late bloomers. It takes them a bit longer to get things down, but then all of the sudden it all just clicks. This has basically defined Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin’s entire career. His first four seasons in the league, he never had a season where he went over 900 yards. He had 14 total touchdowns during that same span. Then, it all came together for him in 2015. Well, more specifically, in the second half of 2015.
That year, he matched his career total of 14 touchdowns, nine of them coming in the second half of the season. Since then, he’s made second-half growth spurts his trademark. Fantasy football team owners need to trade for him now, so they can be part of it.
History Shows It is Time to Buy Doug Baldwin in Fantasy Football
Historically Slow Starter
Baldwin might be able to be called the Jekyll and Hyde of fantasy football. Since 2015, he always begins the first half of the season ranked outside of the top 20 at his position. Then, he has a second-half explosion that blasts him all the way up to top positional numbers overall.
Last season, from weeks one through five he was ranked all the way down as the WR22. The team had their bye in Week Six, and then he came back to average 10.2 points per game, ranked as the WR6 during that span. This balanced him out to a WR11 overall finish in standard leagues. A similar situation happened in 2016. At the midpoint of that season, Baldwin was ranked as the WR30. Go from weeks nine to 17, and he jumps all the way up to WR6, with an average of 11.1 points per game. This put him as the WR10 overall.
Finally, 2015 was the most marked difference. Baldwin ranked as WR7 for the entire season but was averaging a putrid 5.8 points per game from weeks one through eight. This had him as borderline un-rosterable, and in many leagues, he wasn’t. Then, Baldwin exploded in the second half of the season, ranking as the WR2 during that same span averaging 18.1 points per game. People who picked him up got a rare late-season top-performer. If history repeats himself, Baldwin should be in for another big finish to the year.
Offense Starting to Click
It has been a tough start to the season, not just for Baldwin, but the entire Seahawks offense. First, Baldwin hurt his knee in a preseason game. He later said that even though he would be ready in Week One, he would never be 100 percent this season. It got worse from there, as Baldwin suffered a partial MCL tear in his other knee early into the game against the Denver Broncos.
But it wasn’t just Baldwin. The entire Seahawks offense looked clunky at the start of the year. The offensive line, already coming into the season with questions as to their ability to protect Russell Wilson, looked even worse than expected. Seattle couldn’t run the ball either and wasn’t sure who their lead back in their running back committee would be. It also didn’t help that they played some of the league’s top defensive lines during the first quarter of the season. The Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, and Arizona Cardinals are all top-ten in the league in sacks.
Finally, the past two weeks, the unit seems to be settling in. The offensive line is starting to gel and free up holes for the running backs. Chris Carson and Mike Davis have emerged as a solid one-two-punch that gives the offense options. Last week, Baldwin finally looked like his old self, gaining over 90 yards on six catches. This week they have a bye week to rest up and come out strong and healthy for the rest of the season. Baldwin is trending up with the entire Seahawks team.
Buy Baldwin Low Now
So far, Baldwin has nothing to show in terms of stats. In the three healthy games he’s played, he has combined for 13.3 points in standard leagues. With his bye coming this week, he is only going to fall further down the wide receiver rankings. Team owners should be able to get him for pennies in trades if they act now. Emphasize that he himself said he’d be hurt all year. Try to sneak him into some package deals for other players.
An easy way to get him would be to target running back needy teams. With all the injuries at the position, a lot of players have lowered their standards as to who they are willing to start. Try to flip disappointing players in bad offenses like Dion Lewis or Derrick Henry. Another good strategy is to get the other player to make the first offer since his value is all over the place. At worst, just offer any startable wideout who has more total points than Baldwin so far this year (which is almost anyone).
Baldwin also has a great slate of games weeks 15 and 16 during the fantasy playoffs, making him even more desirable. He gets the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15, and then the Kansas City Chiefs one week later. Both games will likely turn into high scoring affairs, with plenty of targets and scoring opportunities for Baldwin. Don’t wait until it is too late. Teams need to take advantage of Baldwin’s slow start to the season and get him on their squad before he blows up like he has done the past three years.
