Nostrathomas missed Week Four due to an emergency meeting of the Four “S” Society (Seers, Soothsayers and Psychics) but is ready to crush the Week Five slate.
Nostrathomas isn’t used to being under .500 against the spread this far into the season so he’s been hitting the crystal beer mugs hard. At this point through three weeks of predictions he’s 6-5-1 on his top picks, 20-24-1 total against the spread and 25-18-1 straight up.
Let’s look at how we’re going to make up some ground in Week Five.
All point spreads and totals from Vegasinsider.com
Top Bets for Your Week 5 Parlay
Baltimore Ravens -3 vs Cleveland Browns (1 PM ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH)
For a team that finished 0-16 in 2017 the Browns, by drafting quarterback Baker Mayfield first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft and appearing on HBO’s Hard Knocks, have brought a significant amount of attention to Cleveland this season. In return, the Browns have fought their way to a 1-2-1 record, forcing the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders to battle to the final seconds to beat them.
This week Cleveland hosts the Ravens, a team that has passed the 2018 quarter-pole as one of the league’s best. Every indicator points to this game being dominated by Baltimore. To start with, they’ve won eight of the last nine against Cleveland and 18 of their last 20.
There are only two team statistics where the Browns surpass Baltimore. One, they average 4.7 yards per carry running the football. Two, they have a 10.7 negative pass play percentage on defense (sacks plus interceptions divided by number of drop backs) good for seventh in the NFL.
For the Ravens, they’re tops in the league on defense in net passing yards per attempt and passer rating allowed. Mayfield is going to have one of his toughest games as a rookie quarterback this week.
The line for this game opened with Baltimore favored by one, jumped immediately to the Ravens -3 and despite over 80 percent of public money coming in on them, has stubbornly held at that spread. Obviously professional gamblers (sharps) see this as a trap game for Baltimore after a big win at Pittsburgh. What they’re not taking into account is the Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games after facing the Steelers. Take Baltimore as road favorites and lay the three points.
Baltimore Ravens 26 Cleveland Browns 20
New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers -6.5 (1 PM ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)
The Panthers have a three game winning streak when coming off their bye week and will be facing a Giants team in Week Five that is still struggling to find consistency on offense under new head coach Pat Shurmer. New York’s offense travelling to Carolina to face a rested Panthers defense is not going to be the cure for what ails them.
On defense, the Giants are number 28 in the league in rushing yards per attempt average and they’re facing a quarterback and running back who learned to run before they could walk. Cam Newton averages 4.9 yards and Christian McCaffrey averages 5.9 per attempt.
The usual rule for picking a road dog is, only bet them if you think they can win. Nostrathomas doesn’t see the Giants winning this game.
Carolina Panthers 28 New York Giants 19
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Over 58 (1 PM ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA)
This Week Five game is a case of unstoppable forces against movable objects. Both teams are going to score and score big. Neither has the defense to stop the other.
Victory is going to come down to which team can make a defensive stop in the fourth quarter and even Nostrathomas can’t clearly see who that will be. What he does see is the total of 58 being crushed before this game is over. Both teams have hit the over in three of their four 2018 games.
If you want to bet the spread, keep in mind that Atlanta is getting Devonta Freeman back from a right knee injury this week. Also, with all things being equal, take the team with the better quarterback. Right now that’s Matt Ryan.
Atlanta Falcons 36 Pittsburgh Steelers 29
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs Seattle Seahawks (4:25 PM ET, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA)
This is one Week Five game Nostrathomas just can’t pass up. This matches up current premier team in the NFL against a squad that’s only a shell of what they were just two seasons ago. You know how far Seattle has fallen when first team All-Pro safety Earl Thomas flipped someone on the Seahawks’ sideline last week while being carted off with a broken leg.
On offense, Seattle can’t run effectively, can’t protect Russell Wilson and can’t convert third downs. That’s not going to keep the top offense in the NFL off the field and contained. Take the Rams, lay the seven points and mourn what the Seahawks used to be.
Los Angeles Rams 32 Seattle Seahawks 20
Pad Your Parlay With a Couple of These
Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs Buffalo Bills (1 PM ET, New Era Field, Buffalo, New York)
Tennessee has been playing tough defense all season. How tough has that defense been? The Titans survived two weeks with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Now it appears that Marcus Mariota is recovering well from the nerve injury in his elbow and is ready to lead the way again.
On Buffalo’s side, they showed up strong two weeks ago when they caught the Minnesota Vikings looking past them to a Thursday night tilt against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills came crashing back to Earth last week against an average Green Bay Packers defense.
Tennessee has a weak run defense so if Buffalo can get LeSean McCoy going they have a chance to keep this close for a while. The Bills don’t have the passing game to keep up though. The Titans are on the upswing and they’ll keep that going in Buffalo
Tennessee Titans 18 Buffalo Bills 12
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs Kansas City Chiefs (1 PM ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO)
This is the top game of the weekend. One of the top offenses in the league will face-off against one of the top defenses. Conventional wisdom is that being at home is worth three points to that team. Kansas City is getting the home town discount for this game and no more.
As good as their offense is under center with Patrick Mahomes, at some point this season a team is going to make the Chiefs pay for not fielding a competent defense.
What this game comes down to is that the Jaguars can score while holding down the opponent’s offense. Kansas City can score but has trouble stopping anybody.
Take Jacksonville in the biggest upset of the week.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Kansas City Chief
Close Calls but Nostrathomas Picks Them All
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals -6 (1 PM ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)
The New England Patriots showed Miami last week that they weren’t ready to surrender the AFC East to the upstart Dolphins. In the meantime, Cincinnati finished running the gauntlet of the Ravens, Panthers and Dolphins and came out of that tough stretch with a 2-1 record.
This is a tough one to call considering that along with Joe Mixon, the Bengals have lost Tyler Eifert for the remainder of the season.
Nostrathomas is going to use a couple of trends to decide the pick for this game. Both teams are 3-1 against the spread this season but Cincinnati is 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS the past four years in weeks prior to playing the Steelers.
Cincinnati Bengals 31 Miami Dolphins 23
Green Bay Packers -1 vs Detroit Lions (1 PM ET, Ford Field, Detroit, MI)
Detroit swept the season series against the Packers for the first time since 1991. Of course, it helped that Aaron Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone for both games.
This year Rodgers is back, though mostly playing on one leg, but he is 13-3 against the Lions in his career. Detroit also hasn’t won three straight against Green Bay since 1990/1991.
Green Bay Packers 25 Detroit Lions 21
Denver Broncos vs New York Jets +1 (1 PM ET, MetLife Stadium, Rutherford, NJ)
This game opened with the Jets favored by one and early action swung the game to Denver being favored. That’s an interesting swing considering the Broncos are 1-6 in the Eastern time zone.
Of the 23 statistics Nostrathomas uses to analyze games New York is the superior team in 15. That’s good enough to take the home team in this game.
New York Jets 22 Denver Broncos 20
Oakland Raiders +5 vs Los Angeles Chargers (4:05 PM ET, StubHub Center, Los Angeles, CA)
The underdog has covered 15 of the last 18 in this series. That’s a trend worth following even though Nostrathomas doesn’t think Oakland is good enough to beat the Chargers (yes, Nostrathomas knows this breaks the road dog rule).
San Diego Chargers 29 Oakland Raiders 27
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles -3 (4:25 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)
A replay of last season’s NFC Championship Game which doesn’t feel nearly as thrilling or important as it should.
Both teams are struggling to find their footing as they head into the second quarter of the season.
Trend, the Eagles have covered seven of their last nine meetings against Minnesota.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Minnesota Vikings 20
Arizona Cardinals +4 vs San Francisco 49ers (4:25 PM ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)
This is the game with the least action among bookmakers for Week Five. Not surprising considering this is a showdown between Josh Rosen and C.J. Beathard.
On San Francisco’s sideline their injury tent will sit next to a chopper pad and have a red cross on the top. The Cardinals have won six straight in this series, granted with Bruce Arians as head coach.
Arizona is currently better and healthier than the 49ers. If you absolutely must play this game bet the road dog to win and cover, then get help.
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans -3.5 (Sunday Night Football, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)
If your bankroll is down after the Sunday afternoon slate the Battle of Texas isn’t where you want to catch up.
Dallas continues to struggle but it’s beginning to look like Texans’ quarterback Deshaun Watson is recovering some of the magic that he flashed last season. The Texans take this game and cover at home.
Houston Texans 29 Dallas Cowboys 24
Washington Redskins +6 vs New Orleans Saints, Over 52.5 (Monday Night Football, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA)
Another battle of two offenses, this time on Monday night. Take the over to cash, the Saints to win and Washington to cover.
New Orleans Saints 32 Washington Redskins 30
Main photo:
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