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Fantasy Football Outlook: Where to Value JuJu Smith-Schuster

Why Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith Schuster has the potential to put up fantasy football numbers evocative of the top players at the position.
Juju Smith-Schuster

Fantasy football has always been an amazing way for NFL fans to expand their knowledge of teams and their players. The players who may not be well-known now have relevance in fantasy owners perspectives, making the game more enjoyable. Fans can take an in-depth look at past superstar players and view players who are consistent performers and contribute to their respective teams on a weekly basis. When those lesser-known players become superstars themselves, the now-engaged football fan will be prepared for their breakout. The question is, will that breakout candidate continue their trend upwards?

JuJu Smith-Schuster: A True Number One Fantasy Receiver?

When 21-year-old JuJu Smith-Schuster is away from Fortnite, he is terrorizing defensive backs and opposing fantasy owners. Smith-Schuster burst onto the scene in 2017 with his stellar play and infectious personality. This season, Smith-Schuster has taken his play to another level. Through a quarter of the season, the former USC Trojan has hauled in 31 catches (third-best in NFL) on 49 targets (third-best) for 416 yards (eighth-best). Those totals have elevated Smith-Schuster to the 11th-ranked receiver in fantasy football, and have created a discussion as to what the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ receiver is capable of.

Reasons of Concern for Smith-Schuster

On the opposite side of Smith-Schuster is an All-Pro and potential Hall of Fame receiver Antonio Brown. While that draws attention away from Smith-Schuster, it does not help his workload. With four weeks down, Brown is currently second in targets in the NFL after averaging 11.5 per game (162 total), last season. While Brown has struggled to connect with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger this season (54.7 percent catch success), Brown will likely finish among the league leaders in targets once again. There is also the chance that if the duo begins to connect again (65.7 percent career catch success), Brown will receive more opportunity.

There also remains the potential of running back Le’Veon Bell returning to the starting lineup in 2018. It has been announced that Bell will report to the team during the team’s bye week, finally ending his hold-out. With Pittsburgh only managing 43.3 rushing yards per game since week one, the Steelers may be welcoming Bell back with open arms by week seven.

Over the past two seasons, Bell has accounted for 200 targets in 27 games, while averaging 22 carries per game. In Pittsburgh’s first four games, fellow running back James Conner amassed 20.25 touches per games and 6.25 targets – both lower than Bell’s marks of 27.5 touches and 7.4 targets. The uptick in touches given to running backs could result in a lesser volume of targets heading towards Smith-Schuster, hurting his production. Still, there is a small chance Bell winds up in a different uniform before his official return to the Steelers.

Reasons of Belief for Smith-Schuster

The Steelers’ defense has been everything fantasy owners hope for in their players’ defenses: dreadful. Allowing 420 yards and 29 points per game, while being the most penalized team in the league, the Pittsburgh defense has been among the worst this season. This causes the offense to attempt to keep pace, primarily through the air. According to SharpFootballStats.com, the Steelers attempt a pass 71 percent of the time and have dropped back 195 times in four games – third most in the league.

Since the injury to linebacker Ryan Shazier, the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 28 points per game and it does not appear that there is a solution to the bleeding this season. The large passing rate will create additional opportunities for Smith-Schuster to increase his target share and continue to produce as a WR1 in fantasy.

The Steelers have found a way for their former second-round pick to contribute on their talented offense. In Smith-Schuster’s last 16 contests, he has gathered 124 targets for 86 catches, 1,317 yards, and seven touchdowns. Comparing Smith-Schuster’s stretch to other notable receivers performances from last season bodes well for his future. Smith-Schuster’s 5.4 catches per game align with Julio Jones‘ 5.5 catches, his 82.3 yards per game surpasses Michael Thomas‘ 77.8 yards, and his 7.75 targets per game are more than the likes of Golden Tate (7.5). Also, Smith-Schuster’s totals from that 16-game span would place him as WR5 at the end of the 2017 season. Not to mention, both Brown and Bell participated in 10 of those 16 games.

Smith-Schuster’s Role in the Offense

With Brown and Bell being integral parts of the Steelers’ offense, it can appear that there is not enough opportunity for Smith-Schuster to be successful. Luckily, Smith-Schuster was able to contribute to Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense that averaged the fourth-most yards per drive and 378 yards per game in 2017. During an 11-game span in 2017, the three offensive weapons showed they can be successful together. In weeks two through six, Brown and Bell averaged over 21 fantasy points per game with Smith-Schuster trailing at 13 points. If Smith-Schuster were to average 13 points per game for a 16-game season, he would have finished as WR15.

Then, in five of the last six weeks the trio played together, Brown and Bell’s scoring increased to over 22 points per game while Smith-Schuster’s total shot up to over 16 points per game. A total of 16.1 points per game would have landed Smith-Schuster as WR7 on the fantasy season. Despite trailing his teammates, Smith-Schuster still managed 10+ points in 64% of his contests as a rookie. Smith-Schuster has shown the ability and has received the opportunity to finish as a fantasy WR1 in 2018.

Logan Bell

Logan Bell

First time writer of the NFL and fan of all things football. NAU 2019.

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