The media heavily documented the lack of success for first-year NFL head coaches following Week One. But despite a combined 0-7 record, it wasn’t all bleak, and a few of the new coaches bounced back with victories in Week Two.
While two games is still a small sample size, there’s already a clear indication that a few first-year head coaches are on their way to success. Others are struggling.
Let’s take an early look at how the seven first-year NFL coaches have fared through two games and project which are most likely to experience success in 2018.
Which NFL First-Year Head Coaches Appear Headed for Success Heading Into Week Three
Matt Nagy
While the New England Patriots assistants (Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels), the return of Jon Gruden, and the New York Giants stole most of the headlines, the Chicago Bears quietly made perhaps the best coaching hire of the off-season. Through two weeks, Nagy has displayed why.
The Bears vanilla offense from last season suddenly looks innovative. Nagy has lined up running back Jordan Howard behind center in wildcat formations and used wide receiver Taylor Gabriel in the running game to get the Bears playmakers the ball.
However, the thing that stands out the most in Nagy’s offense has been opening drives. Second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky has gone a combined 10-of-11 passing for 104 yards and a touchdown on the first drives of games. Both series’ resulted in touchdowns and early leads for the Bears.
That’s a clear indication of great game planning. Nagy’s pregame script is placing his young offense in a great position to succeed early in the first quarter.
The next step for Nagy is making better halftime adjustments. The Bears offense stalled during the second half in Week One and allowed the Green Bay Packers to record an epic comeback. Opponents have outscored the Bears 38-20 in the second half this season.
2018 Outlook: Trubisky continues to develop and the Bears finish above .500 for the first time since 2012.
Frank Reich
He was the Indianapolis Colts‘ third or fourth choice, but things may just work out better with Frank Reich in Indianapolis. After blowing a 13-point lead in Week One to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Colts bounced back to dominate the Washington Redskins on the road.
Quarterback Andrew Luck isn’t off to a blazing start, but he and Reich have decent chemistry, and the offense is effectively spreading the ball around to multiple receivers. Ten different Colts have catches in the first two games, and five different Colts have recorded at least eight receptions.
Reich’s biggest mistake through the first two games was mismanaging the clock at the end of the first half against the Bengals. Kicker Adam Vinatieri still hit a long field goal, but better use of their timeouts and the Colts would have had at least one shot to the end zone. They ended up needing the points later in the game.
Reich, who was offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles from 2016-17, will face his former team this Sunday. The aggressiveness of both head coaches will make the matchup one of the best of the weekend.
2018 Outlook: The Colts have a good chance to finish in second place behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.
Jon Gruden
Similar to Nagy and the Bears, Jon Gruden has game planned his two opponents well. The Oakland Raiders drove with ease against the Los Angeles Rams defense to start in Week One and made a field goal on the first drive against the Denver Broncos. Oakland has outscored its opponents 22-13 in the first half.
However, the second halves have been a different story. Three Derek Carr interceptions turned Week One into a blowout, and the Raiders gave up the final 13 points to lose against the Denver Broncos last Sunday. The Raiders didn’t score in the final 20 minutes in Week Two.
Gruden going for a fourth-and-one at the Broncos 33-yard line with a little under 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter was a questionable decision. To his credit, Gruden made the perfect play call, but fullback Kevin Smith dropped what would have been a first-down catch.
If the Raiders make the field goal (it would have been a 50-yarder at altitude in Denver), the Broncos would have been forced to score a touchdown instead of winning with a field goal on the final possession. Gruden also failed to run off more clock in the four-minute offense, giving the Broncos a chance with the ball again.
Overall, the offense looked great in Week Two. Carr threw just three incompletions and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, but the offense only scored 19 points. Up next is a trip to Miami to visit the 2-0 Dolphins.
2018 Outlook: The Raiders offense will continue to improve offensively, but the lack of playmakers on defense makes a winning season tough to foresee.
Mike Vrabel
It’s very difficult to judge a coach who is playing without his franchise quarterback, Marcus Mariota, best playmaker, Delanie Walker, and both offensive tackles, Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin. But without all of them in Week Two, the Tennessee Titans somehow edged the Houston Texans, 20-17.
A lot of credit should go to Vrabel for the victory. His fake-punt call early in the first quarter turned into a 66-yard touchdown. The Titans added another touchdown in the first half and responded with two field goals after 17 straight points from the Texans.
It’s hard, though, seeing this team going anywhere with the injuries piling up on offense. Mariota is reportedly still feeling tingling in his fingers and is uncertain to play in Week Three against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If he doesn’t play, that leaves Blaine Gabbert as the Titans starting quarterback. It took him about three quarters Sunday to surpass Kevin Byard in passing yards.
2018 Outlook: Vrabel appears capable of maximizing the talent on his team, but he’s not an offensive guru, and that will lead to a below .500 record. The Titans would have been better off keeping Mike Mularkey for Mariota’s development.
Pat Shurmur
The New York Giants have a new coach and running back, but the same problems persist. There’s no running game, and quarterback Eli Manning is under siege.
Most of that falls on the offensive line, which the Giants tried to address more than they did in the 2017 off-season but again failed to fix. Opponents have sacked Manning eight times and held the Giants to 3.7 yards per carry.
But the play caller can help things by finding ways to get the ball in the hands of the playmakers. In Week One, running back Saquon Barkley rushed for a 68-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter but touched the ball just once after that. In Week 2, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. had just four catches for 51 yards.
Manning can be blamed for the lack of catches for Beckham too, as he failed to target Beckham numerous times when he saw one-on-one coverage against the Dallas Cowboys. But Shurmur will have to ensure Beckham is more involved in Week Three against the Texans.
2018 Outlook: Shurmur faces a tall task to get the Giants to .500 if the offensive line play doesn’t improve. Another last-place finish seems to be likely.
Matt Patricia
There was quite a bit of preseason hype surrounding the Detroit Lions. Some of it was warranted, and yet it was still surprising. The Lions have proved why in their first two weeks.
While they are trying to be more committed to the running game under Patricia, teams simply can’t do that when they trail by three possessions in the second half. That’s been the case in both games this season for Detroit.
Offensively, quarterback Matthew Stafford has to be better. He threw four interceptions in Week One and while he experienced a better statistical game last Sunday, Stafford missed receivers open on deep balls four times last week. At least two of those plays appeared to be going for touchdowns.
Patricia can’t be blamed for poor quarterback play, but he can be for the performance of his defense and special teams. The Lions allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown against the New York Jets and a return into the red zone versus the San Francisco 49ers. Detroit also yielded three runs of at least 20 yards against the 49ers.
With the New England Patriots up next, the Lions are staring at 0-3.
2018 Outlook: Everyone in the NFC North is better. The pieces are there for Patricia to establish his running attack, but the Lions may fail to win seven games for the first time since 2012.
Steve Wilks
Boy, where do we begin? The Arizona Cardinals offense has been absolutely terrible, scoring just six points in the first two games. Arizona didn’t cross the 50-yard line until the final minute against the Rams last week.
Say what you will about Sam Bradford‘s career, but he’s better than what he’s shown in the first two weeks. He has been very inaccurate, which isn’t usually his problem, and that’s probably because he’s still unhealthy.
Wilks possesses a defensive background, so it’s hard to say how he has helped or hurt the offense in the first two games. The Cardinals defense has played hard, but they have been on the field for an average of 36 minutes in the first two games.
If this lasts any longer, Wilks will have no choice but to turn to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen.
2018 Outlook: The Cardinals have the offensive pieces to be much better. David Johnson is still a top-five running back, and Larry Fitzgerald has plenty left in the tank. But Wilks looks lost in terms of how to develop a game plan that ensures the offense maximizes its talent.
