Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. There, it’s been said in black and white. It’s also completely true while conversely having an outstanding chance of being completely false at the same time. To elaborate, Mahomes broke a record previously held by three different quarterbacks. Charley Johson (1965), Drew Brees (2009) and Peyton Manning (2013) all threw nine touchdowns in the first two weeks of their respective seasons. Mahomes threw for ten in his first two weeks of 2018. Making him the greatest quarterback of all time, right? Well, let’s not get too carried away here.

He broke a record to start a season, very true. That does not necessarily equate to continued success in the same manner. If we simply extrapolate his current stats and project a 16-game season, he would end with 4,656 yards and 80 touchdowns. These are outlandish numbers that no one could rightfully expect to occur. That brings us back down to earth in saying that Mahomes is NOT the greatest quarterback to ever play. Although, he’s certainly off to an amazing start to his young career.

All this is meant to prove a point. With two weeks of the fantasy football season completed, we can start to formulate data in a projective manner. We cannot, however, run with that raw data and expect all possible projections to remain the same for the rest of the season due to an almost infinite number of variables. However, it’s a good place to start.

We’re going to take a look at week three matchups and project some key players that may be primed for some fantasy dominance.

Fantasy Football Week Three: Starts and Sits Featuring Patrick Mahomes

Starts: Quarterbacks

Pat Mahomes vs. San Francisco 49ers

We’ve already mentioned Pat Mahomes, and at this point, it’s beating a dead horse with a comically large mallet, to coin a phrase. Mahomes has shown the ability to get it done against some stout defenses. His perception of opposing defenses coupled with his rocket-powered arm has propelled him into fantasy wonderland. This week the Kansas City Chiefs take on a 49ers defense that has yet to intercept a quarterback and allowed five touchdowns through the air. The 49ers are currently allowing the 7th highest fantasy points to the position. Until he returns to earth, Mahomes should be started in all formats.

Alex Smith vs. Green Bay Packers

Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith is the model of safe quarterback play. Often labeled as a game manager, Smith has shown that when necessary, he can open an offense up. Playing at home and most likely playing from behind, Smith, and company may have to air it out to keep the game competitive. The Packers defense is currently allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.

Smith does not offer the highest fantasy ceiling. But, his rushing ability coupled with his typical lack of turnovers creates a very safe floor. In smaller leagues, he may not offer much of play. In deeper leagues or Superflex leagues, he’s a solid play in a negative game script.

Sits: Quarterback

Andrew Luck vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy owners have long awaited the return of juggernaut Andrew Luck. Luck has done all that anyone could hope for coming off a surgery and a long recovery. He’s had moments where he’s looked rusty, followed by moments of the quarterback we all know and love.

Entering a week three road game matchup against the reigning world-champion Eagles, it’s time to temper expectations. Luck is averaging 249 yards-per-game and has thrown for four touchdowns and three interceptions thus far. Quarterback Carson Wentz is expected back under center, and the home crowd should be vivacious for their Superbowl team. Philly knows how to pressure opposing quarterbacks and the Indianapolis Colts offensive line is nothing to be proud of. If there are other options, consider sitting Luck in a tough matchup.

Andy Dalton vs. Carolina Panthers

Andy Dalton has had a fairly solid start to his 2018 fantasy campaign. Through the first two games, he’s averaging 254 yards-per-game and threw for four touchdowns last week. This week, they take on a Carolina Panthers defense that has only allowed two touchdowns through the air. The Panthers know how to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The Cinncinati Bengals are also hampered by not having running back Joe Mixon due to injury. With this game relying on defense and Andy Dalton’s arm, it’s a good week to explore other streaming options.

Starts: Running Back

Jordan Howard vs. Arizona Cardinals

Two weeks into the season, the Arizona Cardinals look like the second-worst team in the NFL. The Chicago Bears, however, have shown ability on both sides of the ball with their stout defense leading the way. To this point in the season, Jordan Howard has disappointed fantasy owners.

In a game script where once again their defense can lead the way, Jordan Howard may play an integral offensive role. He’s averaging over 18 carries a game, and has been a little more involved in the passing aspect as well. Howard has yet to score a rushing touchdown or eclipse 100 yards rushing. Both could change this week.

Howard stands a good chance at putting up a respective fantasy game this week. He should be started and is a good buy-low candidate from frustrated owners.

Kenyan Drake vs. Oakland Raiders

The Miami Dolphins has been fairly split thus far this season. Both Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore have had marginal carries through two games this season. Neither has run away with the job, but the majority and production have favored Drake. In a matchup where the 2-0 Dolphins want to get the early lead, Drake may be featured heavily to start the game. The Raiders are allowing the eighth most fantasy points to the running back position and have had 100-yard rushers in both games this season.

While the game-script could flip if the Raiders take a big lead, Drake has seen eight targets to Gore’s one through the first two games. Drake is the better talent and that should shine in this matchup. Consider him an RB2 in this matchup.

Sits: Running Back

David Johnson vs. Chicago Bears

We all know the start-your-studs adage. Sometimes, exceptions apply. Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson is one of the premier pass-catching running backs in the league. One wouldn’t know that based on this season’s usage. Johnson is an incredible talent that’s not being utilized behind poor quarterback play from Sam Bradford, and poor offensive line play. Until we see some form of coaching to get the ball in the best player’s hands, Johnson is difficult to start in a tough defensive matchup.

Royce Freeman – vs. Baltimore Ravens

The preseason hype for Denver Broncos rookie running back Royce Freeman was intense. There is no doubt he’s talented, but the timeshare between Freeman and undrafted-free-agent sensation Phillip Lindsay is a cause for concern. Facing a decent rush defense in the Ravens, Freeman may again take a backseat. He’s a flex-worthy start, but temper expectations.

Starts: Wide Receiver

Geronimo Allison vs. Washington Redskins

So far the Washington Redskins are allowing the 3rd fewest points to offenses. A hobbled Aaron Rodgers is more likely to stay in the pocket for another matchup. If top corner Josh Norman focuses on Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison may be in line for an increase in target share. He’s had 14 targets through the first two games and could see an uptick this week. This one may be a deeper start but should provide a solid floor play with good upside especially in DFS games.

Will Fuller vs. New York Giants

The Houston Texans needed quarterback Deshaun Watson back. Deshaun Watson needed Will Fuller back. When these two are on the field together, good things happen for fantasy owners. The amazing part here is when Watson is playing well, he’s shown that he can support both Fuller and Deandre Hopkins. With Hopkins getting the top coverage, Fuller is always a threat for a big game.

Sits: Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson vs. Cleveland Browns

Through the first two games with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson only has four receptions on six targets for 68 yards and one score. Meanwhile, Quincy Enunwa has been a target monster. While the week three matchup is terrifying, the target share is. Anderson is someone that should be packaged in a trade or left benched outside of deeper leagues.

Michael Crabtree vs. Denver Broncos

With a suddenly crowded receiving core, Michael Crabtree is shaping up to be what he was in Oakland. Touchdown-dependent.  In his first two games with Joe Flacco he’s had 16 targets, eight receptions, and one score. Working with a 17.9% target share and only hauling in half of those targets, Crabtree almost has to get a score to maintain fantasy relevance. Squaring off against the Denver Broncos, he’s less likely to find pay dirt this week.

Starts: Tight End

Trey Burton vs. Arizona Cardinals

This may the game where Trey Burton breaks out for the Chicago Bears. The Cardinals have allowed one touchdown to the position in both games so far this season. With the Cardinals best corners covering Allen Robinson, this has the potential to be the big game Burton owners have been waiting for.

Sits: Tight End

Austin Hooper vs. New Orleans Saints

Austin Hooper failed to register anything close to fantasy production in week one. In week two, the Atlanta Falcons made it a point to get him involved and he finished with a 5/59/1 line. We’ve seen the Falcons and Hooper do this same dance before and shouldn’t have high expectations moving forward. The Saints have been decent at stopping the position and Hooper is too feast and famine to rely on outside of a bye-week-flier.

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