Many Atlanta Falcons fans were unhappy with the way Steve Sarkisian used Julio Jones in 2017. Unfortunately, his misuse of his best wideout continued in week 1 of the 2018 NFL season.
Julio Jones: Speed or Size Nightmare?
Julio Jones is a matchup nightmare. That part is indisputable. However, where exactly the nightmare begins and ends has been open to interpretation. For a lot of fans, his lack of receiving touchdowns has been a cause for concern. Whether your interests are in fantasy football or not, a top wide receiver is expected to score more often.
His coordinators have mostly agreed with this, and targeted him plenty. In an offseason study, I looked at Julio’s usage over the years and I basically split it into two separate universes: speed downs and size downs.
Speed downs are first downs and second and long downs (second and 10 or longer) that are outside the red zone. Here, a wide receiver’s speed is a really big factor, since the field is big enough for him to use it. The playbook is wide open.
Size downs are all the other downs: all red zone downs, second and medium and second and short, and all third and fourth downs. Here a wide receiver’s speed becomes less meaningful since the offense is playing in a compressed area of space. His size becomes important.
It actually is the speed that kills you
In 2017, some fans thought that the Falcons red zone woes were down to Julio not getting enough targets down there. But that wasn’t the case:
Contrary to popular belief, the solution is not target Julio more in the RZ: He got plenty of targets there last year, 1st on the team, 8th in the league.https://t.co/HPD38beYYBhttps://t.co/ELM1FVUd5R
— Marko Marković (@MarkoMarkonym) July 23, 2018
The main problem over the course of Julio’s career has been that he is so otherworldly good that offensive coordinators want to throw him the ball at every high stakes opportunity they can. It is only in isolating for his speed and size down usage that we can really see where Julio has excelled in his time in the NFL:
Isolating for Ryan strengthens the point I made about what Julio is:
Speed Downs TD%:
Julio 3.09%
Ryan w/o Julio 1.61%
Rest of NFL 1.63%Size Downs TD%:
Julio 6.38%
Ryan w/o Julio 7.4%
Rest of NFL 6.88%Julio = avg size WR, elite speed WR
Ryan= above avg size QB, avg speed QB— Marko Marković (@MarkoMarkonym) July 29, 2018
We see here that Julio is simply an average touchdown scorer on size downs. Where he actually is otherworldly is on speed downs, where he nearly doubles the NFL-wide touchdown percentage rate over the course of the last six seasons.
Kyle Shanahan’s Ingenious Usage of Julio Jones in 2016
The greatest offense Julio Jones has ever been a part of was the only one that really noticed that. From 2011-2015, under three different offensive coordinators, Julio had 323 speed targets to 325 size targets. He was seen as an all-around weapon.
In 2016, one year into his relationship with Kyle Shanahan, Julio’s usage changed drastically. He had 85 speed targets to only 45 size targets. Those include only 20 third-down targets, which ranked him 94th in the NFL.
The genius of Shanahan was to use Julio primarily as an early down weapon, where his speed can take over the game. Then, in compressed space and high leverage situations, while opponents are focusing on Julio, the other Falcons playmakers have easier matchups.
It is not a coincidence that the 2016 Falcons offense put up a record for how many different guys caught a touchdown (and how many caught multiple touchdowns). Shanahan figured out that actually diminishing Julio’s role in those situations and increasing his workload on speed downs was the best way to use him.
Steve Sarkisian: Back to the Old Ways
In his first year, Steve Sarkisian used Julio Jones again close to 50/50 in terms of speed downs vs size downs. It’s a natural impulse that Shanahan also fell prey to in his first year. If you are new to the team and have no idea about Austin Hooper’s route running or Justin Hardy’s catch radius, where are you going to throw the football on third down, in the red zone, or with the game on the line? Of course, you go to your Hall of Fame wide receiver.
The final sequence of 2017 encapsulated that strategy perfectly. With four tries to win the game, three targets were sent to Julio. The hope for 2018 was that Sark might have learned from his mistakes. More time with the offense should have allowed him to use the pieces in a more fitting matter. Unfortunately, in Week 1 against the Eagles, we saw none of that.
Thursday Night Meltdown
Against a very good Eagles defense, Sark called 12 size targets to Julio with seven speed targets. Only four of those size targets came in desperation mode on the final drive, which means even before that Sark was looking for balance. This is the Julio Jones usage pattern that Falcons offensive coordinators have used each year except 2016.
The production spoke volumes again:
- On size downs, Matt Ryan had a 42 percent success rate when throwing to Julio with a 50.3 passer rating.
- On speed downs, he had a 57 percent success rate and a 79.5 passer rating.
This excludes the 52-yard near-completion that was called incomplete on the field and upon review. If that is credited as a catch, those speed down numbers jump to a 71 percent success rate and 113.7 passer rating.
Now, this is not to say that Sark should simply leave Julio off the field on size downs. His presence demands attention, and that is why that first drive against the Eagles ended in a puzzling manner. Head coach Dan Quinn did insinuate that if you overuse Julio early, he cannot be there late:
Dan Quinn say he wasnt going to go the Julio for "75 straight plays" when talking about Julio not being in on the early red zone drive
— vaughn mcclure (@vxmcclure23) September 7, 2018
But he can still be on the field, without having the play be designed to go his way.
Keeping track of this particular problem might prove vital to understanding the struggles of the Steve Sarkisian offense in Atlanta. If he continues to misuse Julio Jones, this offense will have a hard time unlocking its full potential.
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
