Bengals’ Joe Mixon: Breakout Candidate or Potential Bust?

Fantasy football presents a large group of players who provide different levels of risk and reward. The goal for fantasy owners is to select players whose value outweighs the liability. For some players, the value and risk are challenging to determine. One of the most intriguing and unpredictable players available for 2018 is Cincinnati Bengals‘ running back, Joe Mixon.

Mixon’s rookie year was a mixed bag in terms of production. In Point-Per-Reception (PPR) leagues, Mixon finished the season as the 30th ranked running back with approximately 145 points and 10.4 points-per-game. While Mixon did not have the ground-breaking first year football fans witnessed with Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt, Mixon still finished 22nd at the position in touches and flashed play-making ability. Here are the positives and negatives regarding Mixon’s 2018 fantasy football prospects:

Reasons to Avoid Joe Mixon

On the offensive side of the ball, the Cincinnati Bengals were putrid in 2017. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals’ offense finished 31st in average yards-per-drive (25.81 yards) and plays-per-drive (5.3 plays), 32nd in time of possesion-per-game (27.17 minutes) and 25th in points-per-drive with 1.54 points. Cincinnati also ran the least amount of plays in the NFL with 927 – nearly 360 less than the league leader. On the ground, the Bengals’ running backs managed only 3.7 yards-per-carry and the offense totaled a mere 85.4 rushing yards-per-game. Not only did the rookie’s 3.5 yards-per-carry rank 42nd among ball-carriers, but Mixon was only able to manage a run of 10 or more yards 9.7% of the time (17 runs total).

The sputtering offense made it nearly impossible for Mixon to be consistent and his fantasy scoring reflected that. Last season, the Bengals’ runner failed to score 10+ points in 50% of the game he appeared in. Also, Mixon was only able to score higher than 14 points in one game all season. The offense regularly tailed away from Mixon as he failed to record 12 or more touches in six games while only averaging 41.2 total yards in those games. Despite totaling over 900 scrimmage yards, the inconsistencies in Mixon’s performances depleted fantasy owners’ faith in the running back.

Reasons to Target Joe Mixon

Throughout the off-season, reports have emphasized that the Bengals want Mixon to be a “workhorse” back in 2018. By featuring Mixon in that role, Mixon will have a very strong chance of receiving over 300 touches. While Giovani Bernard still remains on the roster, it can be assumed that he will be restricted to receiving duties to make way for his running back counterpart. Fantasy football is a volume-reliant game and it is safe to assume Mixon will have plenty of opportunities this season. What the Bengals’ new workhorse back does with those opportunities is what will separate him from other fantasy backs.

Luckily for Mixon, the team beefed up their offensive line during the off-season. Through trade and the draft, Cincinnati added veteran tackle, Cordy Glenn, and Ohio State center, Billy Price. To go along with the new lineman, the Bengals also hired former Dallas Cowboys‘ offensive line coach, Frank Pollock. While Pollock was in Dallas, the Cowboys averaged 134.5 rushing yards-per-game, a huge advantage over Cincinnati’s 2017 total.

While the offense was uninspiring in 2017, it was an anomaly for Cincinnati. Last season was the first time the Bengals’ offense finished with less than 1,000 plays on the season since 2008. With a predicted jump in volume, the Bengals’ offense is primed to be more fantasy friendly in 2018. After already accounting for 22.4% of the offensive touches in 2017, Mixon figures to benefit even more from the expected increase in offensive volume.

The #Bengals were 7-9 in 2017 but 5-1 when Joe Mixon had 15 carries or more. Mixon should be the focal point of the offense in 2018, along with A.J. Green.

— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) May 22, 2018

Conclusion

A final, and interesting, note on Mixon for the upcoming season is his reported weight loss. According to many sources, Mixon has shed about 15 pounds this off-season and is now down to 220 pounds. While it sounds more like a fun fact than fantasy relevant information, it is truly important as 84% of running backs to finish in the top-25 over the last five years have weighed less than 225 pounds.

In his rookie season, Pittsburgh Steelers‘ star running back Le’Veon Bell weighed approximately 240-245 pounds. That year, Bell accrued 3.5 yards a carry and 4.4 yards-per-touch. Coincidentally, those totals happen to be the same as Mixon’s first season. While Bell had more touches than Mixon (Bell 289 touches, Mixon 208), him and Mixon’s efficiencies and situations are very comparable.

In 2014, Bell’s sophomore season and the year of the weight loss, Bell ran for 1,361 yards on 4.7 yards-per-carry, caught 83 passes for 854 yards, and scored 11 total touchdowns. Not to mention, Bell scored the most points among fantasy running backs. Now, in no way am I saying Joe Mixon is the next Le’Veon Bell, but the signs of weight loss and expected increase in volume are very encouraging for 2018.

Whether your league has already drafted or is drafting the final week of preseason, Joe Mixon deserves to be an option for all fantasy teams. While it is not recommended to have him as an RB1, Mixon is among the best breakout candidates in fantasy. Mixon’s current ADP (average draft position) has him going late second-round in 12-man leagues and third-round in 10-man leagues. Currently being drafted as RB14, Mixon has a very good chance of meeting or exceeding his ADP. Mixon remains a risky option but without risk, there is no reward and as a fantasy owner, you are going to need the reward to win your league.

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