Mike Evans has been a beast since he came into the league. He finished as a top-ten receiver as a rookie and has since been one of the top receivers off the board. However, year-to-year he is not as consistent. He has finished as the number one overall wideout, but he’s also finished outside the top 25. This season, he is ranked as the WR9 on many big boards. While he certainly has the potential to outperform that, it is more likely he finishes worse than his ADP suggests.
Fantasy Buyer Beware: Mike Evans
Yo-Yo Fantasy Finishes
Mike Evans can best be described as a yo-yo fantasy football player. He is awesome one year and disappears the next. Since his rookie season in 2015, he has had the following finishes in standard format: WR10, WR26, WR1, and WR20. This is interesting because he has never had a season where he has gone under 1,000 yards receiving. His wildly inconsistent finishes are based on touchdowns.
For both of his top ten finishes, Evans reeled in a ridiculous 12 touchdowns, serving as the basically the sole red-zone threat for his quarterback. As any seasoned fantasy player would know, touchdowns are one of the most fickle stat in fantasy from year to year. Relying on touchdowns to increase the value of a player is not the best idea.
Opposing Teams Pulling Out All the Stops
Still, there could be a reason behind Evans’s lack of red-zone production last season, and reason to believe that it will continue. For one, after his huge 2016, when he put up over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns, he put the league on notice. After that, teams started putting all their resources into stopping him. The strategy seemed successful last year. The Buccaneers went 5-11, and Evans had his worst statistical season in the league.
Too Many Mouths to Feed
Another logical reason for Evans’s drop in production could be the fact that the Buccaneers added a lot of new weapons in 2017. Prior to that, Evans was sort of a one-man show in Tampa. In 2016, only two players (Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries) other than Evans went over 400 yards receiving for the Buccaneers. That number increased to five players in 2017, showing a significant increase in competition for targets. Humphries and Brate were two of those players, but the others, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard were new arrivals. All five of these players return to the Bucs this season, so this trend will continue this season.
Other Options
The best option for players in that position would be Doug Baldwin. While Baldwin doesn’t have the potential to be a number one receiver in fantasy like Evans, he has a history of consistency. Since 2015, Baldwin has finished as between WR7 and WR11 in fantasy. His outlook is actually looking even better this year since the Seattle Seahawks are projected to struggle on defense this year. This means more potential shootouts and garbage time stat padding for him and quarterback Russell Wilson.
Another option would be to go after another position like running back and look for a wideout later. Marvin Jones and Brandin Cooks were top ten fantasy receivers last season. Currently, Jones and Cooks are rated as WR20 and 21 respectively.
Admittedly, a lot of Jones’ fantasy production came from his nine touchdowns, and it was his first season over 1,000 yards. The year before was his first season in Detroit, and he had 930 yards receiving and four touchdowns. This is probably his floor though, which is about the same as Evans’s. Yet, he can be had a few rounds later in drafts.
Cooks low ranking is a bit more surprising. Aside from his rookie season, he’s been a model of consistency. The past three years he has had over 1,000 yards receiving and at least seven touchdowns. The fear is that he may take time to adjust to his new team, and many wonder what his role will be. Still, the Los Angeles Rams gave him a hefty extension soon after he was traded, showing that he will be heavily involved in the offense.
Last Word (or Warning) on Mike Evans in Fantasy
Baldwin, Jones, and Cooks are much safer options that have lower ADP, but higher outlooks than Evans. The facts are that Evans may have seen his peak in fantasy. He is not in a position to put up those kinds of numbers, at least for this year. Other options should be considered.
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