This is the season for hot takes, deep sleepers, and bold predictions. From the big-time analysts to the small-time writers and number-crunchers, we all want the inside track on who’s going to break out and impress. Fantasy football is in full swing with drafts, dynasty start-ups, and deposits on DFS sites. It’s like Christmas season with less decorating and music.
Bold prediction articles are like elbows and opinions, everyone has them. I get it. Instead of just pumping out some hot takes, I tried to provide some solid reasoning, a pinch of math, and even a smidge of history to the formulation of these predictions.
We’re going to look at four players that have a strong chance of exceeding expected value for a variety of reasons this season.
Four Bold Predictions for the 2018 Fantasy Football Season
Leonard Fournette Leads the NFL in Rushing Yards
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette finished the 2017 season as the RB9 in PPR formats. What’s impressive about this isn’t just the fact that he accomplished this feat in his rookie season. It’s also the fact that he accomplished this in 13 games.
Fournette was eighth in rushing yards with 1,040 and he finished with nine rushing touchdowns. In five of those games, he rushed for more than 100 yards. As a receiving option, he had 48 targets and hauled in 36 of them for 302 yards and one more score.
He finished the season averaging 20.61 rushing attempts and 3.69 passing targets-per-game.
The Jaguars have made it abundantly clear that Fournette is a focal point of this offense. While quarterback Blake Bortles will most likely never ascend to elite status, he manages the offense well enough to earn himself a contract extension. They brought in Austin Sefarian-Jenkins at tight end and Donte Moncrief at wide receiver. The most important signing of the off-season was Andrew Norwell to play left guard. Norwell was first-team All-Pro last season with the Carolina Panthers and he fills a need on the interior of that offensive line. He was the top lineman available, and the Jaguars rewarded him handsomely to protect Bortles and pave the lane for Fournette.
2018 Projections
Entering the 2018 season health concerns are the primary risk factor for Fournette as a high draft pick. He represents one of only a handful of true workhorse running backs in the league. The additions at wide receiver and the improved play of Bortles in the second half of the season could mean a decrease in stacked boxes. That coupled with the improvements to the offensive line mean that Fournette should be in line for as much work as he can handle. The Jaguars have the seventh-easiest schedule for running backs.
I’m projecting Fournette to lead the NFL with 330 rushing attempts for 1,305 yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns. Further projection, 45 receptions for 384 yards, and 3 more scores.
Cooper Kupp Leads the Rams in Receiving Touchdowns
There were very few players that I targeted as heavily last season than Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. As a rookie, he showed immediate rapport with quarterback Jared Goff. Kupp finished the season with 869 yards on 62 receptions and hauled in five touchdowns. His 23 red zone targets more than doubled any other receiver on the team. Kupp led his team in targets and receiving yards in 2017. To be fair, Robert Woods did miss four games.
I know what most of you may be thinking; “But they added Brandin Cooks!” Yes, they did. The fact is, Cooks and Kupp play completely different roles in this offense. Cooks represents a more polished version of Sammy Watkins that can stretch the field. Kupp, however, has the slot/possession role on lockdown in this offense and that worked wonders for his fantasy value last season. The player that suffers the most from the Cooks signing is Robert Woods.
2018 Fantasy Projection
Kupp entered the league looking polished and settled in immediately in head coach Sean McVay’s offense. There was a visibly apparent connection between Goff and Kupp. I expect that to continue. We may have seen Kupp perform very near his ceiling in terms of total targets and yards, but he has room to grow in the touchdown department. While I do believe that Cooks leads all Rams receivers in receptions and yards, Kupp is the preferred go-to target in the red zone.
I’m projecting Kupp to finish with 61 receptions, 786 yards, and eight touchdowns, beating Cooks in the touchdown department.
Sammy Watkins Outscores Tyreek Hill
This may be the boldest take among the others listed here. Especially since the preseason 69-yard bomb from Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill made its way around Twitter. There is a lot of speculation about the top two wide receivers for the Kansas City Chiefs. So let’s start with Hill. No receiver in the NFL has put up the type of crazy efficient numbers that Hill has over the last two season. In 2017, Hill finished with 1,183 yards and seven scores on just 75 receptions. Not one of those touchdowns was a result of a red zone target. Every touchdown Hill scored was from at least 20 yards out. That type of efficiency is difficult to replicate and there have been changes that factor in as well.
Alex Smith had an MVP-caliber season in 2017 that led to Hills yards-per-target increase from 7.1 to 11.3 which is a huge jump. Smith is gone and now Mahomes steps in as the starter. The Chiefs brought in Watkins and apparently have plans to use the well-traveled receiver.
Despite having very little time to learn in the playbook, Watkins finished 2017 with eight touchdowns for the Rams. The Chiefs brought him in for a large contract and have plans to use him in this offense. With opposing defenses focused on Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, it should leave room for Watkins to operate. I believe Watkins is the more talented receiver and could emerge as the number one receiving option in this offense. While this isn’t strictly a declaration of how good Watkins is, it is also assuming regression in the unsustainable numbers that Hill put up last season. Hill is going to have some boom weeks, but Watkins should emerge as a reliable fantasy producer in an offense that projects to be playing from behind often.
Watkins will finish the season as the Chiefs highest scoring fantasy wide receiver and beat his ADP as the 35th receiver off the board.
Anthony Miller Enters WR3 Territory in His Rookie Year
The Chicago Bears made some noise in the off-season. Step one was saying goodbye to John Fox and honestly, it keeps getting better from there. After bringing in Matt Nagy, the Bears began to make some moves. They brought in tight end Trey Burton and wide receiver Allen Robinson. They also finished it up with a solid draft on both sides of the ball. One of those picks was rookie wide receiver, Anthony Miller.
The Bears are all in with sophomore Mitch Trubisky and have surrounded him with the talent required to be successful both in the real football and for the hordes of fantasy football faithful. The Bears were targeting Miller and moved up in the draft to get him. The reports coming out of camp have been high praise and hype-train worthy.
Miller has certainly passed the eye test thus far. He stood out in training camp and has only exceeded that by a solid preseason. Miller looks to have done enough to earn a starting nod and may find himself lining up in the slot more often than not. Trubisky looked to that area of the field often last season and this bodes well for Miller heading into the season.
The big question marks here are not based on Miller’s skill set or talent, but on how many targets are there to go around in this offense. With Robinson, Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and even Tarik Cohen, targets are going to be valuable. The Bears were towards the bottom of the league in pass attempts under John Fox. With Nagy’s creativity and the depth of the roster, we may see Miller immediately step into fantasy-viable production despite being buried in target share to begin with. Cream rises to the top, and Miller is an exceptional talent that will shine through early if given the opportunity.
Expect Miller to become more fantasy relevant as the season moves on, and finally settle down to being an upside flex-play and creep into a WR3 finish by the end of the season. He’s well worth a last pick stash-and-hold.
