With drafts coming up, everyone is looking for value. To most people, value is a “sleeper,” or a player that is likely to explode onto the scene. Usually that does not happen, and instead that player is dropped a few weeks into the season. Houston Texans running back, Lamar Miller, is a different type of value. He is not going to somehow blow up and become a top five running back. Where he gets his value is in his consistency. Miller will be a great back because he has a stacked offense around him. His touches will be stable and easy to predict throughout the season.
Consistency in Lamar Miller’s Game Gives Value at His ADP
The Deshaun Watson Effect
Miller was on track for pretty good season while Deshaun Watson was under center. Before Watson went down with his ACL injury in week eight, Miller was ranked as the RB11 in standard leagues. Once Watson went down, Miller might as well have too. From week nine to the end of the season, Miller plummeted all the way to RB27. His strong start averaged him out to a RB14 finish, but who knows how high he would have gone had Watson stayed healthy.
Competition
Although Miller’s touches have supposedly been in jeopardy since last season, no other back has really materialized as a threat. The biggest buzz has been around D’Onta Foreman, but it looks like he will start the season on the PUP list. He tore his ACL in week 11’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. Foreman was hot-and-cold last season, but didn’t seem like a real threat to Miller’s workload even when he played.
Aside from Foreman, the only other projected back on the roster is veteran Alfred Blue, he is not even close to being starting quality. Blue has filled in for injuries to Texans backs for years, and been unspectacular. The job and touches are Miller’s to lose, and he won’t give them up easily, even after Foreman comes back.
Volume
With Watson back and no other backs threatening to cut much into his workload, Miller is guaranteed to have the volume to produce in the Texans offense. Though his YPC last season (3.7) leaves a lot to be desired, he still gets consistent volume to make him a solid RB2 week after week. Miller may not be spectacular, as he never had a 100 yard rushing game last year, but he also only had less than 50 rushing yards three times. In one of those games, he made up for it with three receptions for 40 yards. Another of those games was week one, when Watson only played the second half.
Comps to Other Backs
Admittedly, it is highly unlikely that Miller ends up a top-ten back in fantasy. Still his current RB21 ranking should be easy to outperform. Backs like Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, and Jay Ajayi are all going right ahead of him. Ranked as the 42OVR on Fantasy Pros, Miller can likely be drafted about a half-round later than Ajayi or Drake.
While Ajayi had a better overall YPC, he was a lot more inconsistent. He had two games where he went over 100 yards, and four games with over 20 carries. But, he also had six games where he went under 50 yards on the ground. He also only had one rushing touchdown the entire year. Consistency is much more valuable than an occasional blow-up game.
From there Drake has not secured the starting job. The Miami Dolphins brought in Frank Gore to split carries with him. Though Gore is as old as dirt, he has remained oddly consistent, falling just 40 yards short of a 1,000 yard rushing season with the Indianapolis Colts last year. Henry seems to be getting by on name value alone, but will also share the backfield with new arrival Dion Lewis.
If given the choice of between the four, Miller is the safest bet to perform. With Watson back in the fold, proven consistency, and no real threat to his carries, Miller is a great value running back at his ADP.
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