The clock starts for fantasy football drafts very soon. Every year there are usually a few reliable options at the top but there’s always a chance for a misfire. However, there’s a bevy of sure-fire talent available at the top of the draft this year. That being said, this year owners should pick David Johnson first in fantasy drafts in 2018.
Johnson is one of the favorites for being the top player chosen this year. His competition this August will be running backs Le’Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams.
The top pick of the draft should have the strongest potential of scoring the most points while holding a high floor. In this case, there are at least the three aforementioned players in the running for the top spot. All of which are supremely talented players but have varied situations.
The Case for Drafting David Johnson First in Fantasy Football
Johnson Has Done It Before
The “Humble Rumble” dominated fantasy leagues just two seasons ago when he gained 2,118 yards from scrimmage and scored 20 times. He finished as a top-12 fantasy back 14 times in PPR formats.
Johnson had a massive share of touches with the 2016 Arizona Cardinals and that shouldn’t change. His 373 totes comprised a whopping 44 percent of the offense. His injury a season ago isn’t a cause for concern since it was his wrist and not a more crucial body part like a knee or ankle. The 26-year old back is in the prime age group for his position and has only 573 career touches. His mileage is relatively low and with Arizona’s quarterback situation, Johnson could be used a ton. One could easily paint a scenario where Johnson duplicates his success of 2016.
It’s important to remember that this is not a lock as we cannot definitively predict usage. One could also paint a scenario where that offense is terrible due to the lack of weapons. Johnson would still put up excellent numbers due to his immense talent, but an RB1 season would not be a total guarantee.
He still has the best opportunity to finish as the number one running back due to the potential situations of his contemporaries.
His Talent Is Top-Notch
Johnson is the best receiving back in the league and backs it up by showcasing excellent body control, vision, and hands. In 33 career games, Johnson made 122 receptions for 1,403 yards and eight scores. He’s an exceptional talent in the passing game in spite of his large frame at 6’1″ and 224 pounds. He had the highest average depth of target among running backs in 2016 at 4.6 yards. In fact, he was Pro Football Focus’ top overall receiver of 2016.
Congrats to David Johnson for being named PFF’s best receiver of 2016.
All awards: https://t.co/9qPuwqfJ5Q pic.twitter.com/TnbhrxyvU4
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 25, 2017
As a rusher, Johnson possesses excellent vision, burst, and his cutting ability is among the league’s elite. He has above-average speed and becomes a freight train on long runs. Johnson has a unique combination of athleticism and power, which makes him a scary weapon in any offense.
Because Johnson is one of the NFL’s best rushers and the best receiving back, it’s a no-brainer that he’s the most complete running back. He’s the closest we have to a current-day Thurman Thomas.
Johnson’s Consistency Is Elite
Over the course of the 2016 season, you could count on Johnson to have an elite effort every game, apart from Week 17 when he departed early with a leg injury. Fantasy league schedules shouldn’t go past Week 16, so for argument’s sake, let’s remove his final performance that year from the equation. His lowest fantasy output of the season was in Week Four when he gained 124 total yards on 21 touches and lost one fumble. That was still good for 10 points. Johnson scored more than 20 points in nine different weeks and averaged 20.21 points per game over the first 16 weeks. Johnson was a week-winner in 2016 and ended up being the MVP of a lot of championship teams that year.
The Other Guys
The consensus number one pick in fantasy this year is Gurley. We still don’t know if the Rams’ dynamic offense will repeat its 2017 performance. Could we see a step back from quarterback Jared Goff? Gurley’s target share could also decrease, as the Rams traded for star receiver Brandin Cooks this past off-season. We can’t legislate usage, but we can concoct a scenario in which Gurley’s involvement in the passing offense decreases. This is in stark contrast to Johnson’s situation in Arizona, where the only proven receiving option is receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
When it comes to Bell, we have to be concerned with his usage rate and durability. Bell pulled his anterior cruciate ligament after hyperextending his knee in a week 17 game against the Bengals in 2014. The following season, he missed eight games after tearing his medial collateral ligament. The heavy workload took its toll once again after the 2016 campaign when he had surgery to correct a sports hernia. Bell is coming off a year where he recorded 406 touches and has a career total of 1,541. Compare that to Johnson’s 573 career touches despite the two being the same age. Could we see Bell finally break down? It’s doubtful that he will, but his effectiveness could be limited.
The Best Case Scenario for 2018
Johnson is coming off of a non-crucial injury for a running back in that it won’t affect his ability to produce this year. He’s the best all-around running back in the league and doesn’t have a ton of tread on his tires.
There’s an excellent chance that Johnson is once again the focal point of the Cardinals offense in 2018. We could see some touchdown regression from two years ago, but he should still produce at a high level.
His offensive line is not what it once was, and they have looked suspect in pass protection so far this preseason. The quarterback situation in Arizona is also cloudy. The oft-injured veteran Sam Bradford hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2012 with the Rams. Rookie signal-caller Josh Rosen is pro-ready and has looked in command this preseason, but is still a relative unknown due to being wet behind the ears. These potential issues paired with a first-year head coach could cause concern but should be offset by Johnson’s steadiness, talent, and heavy usage.
The Cardinals have also decided to go with more fullback-sets this year after signing Derrick Coleman. This could signify a “ground and pound” mentality which would give Johnson a safe floor as the focal point of the offense.
Johnson is a great player, and his talent alone will warrant spending the first pick on him. Rest assured that he’s a safe pick and that he’ll be the catalyst of that offense this year barring injury.
