The Kansas City Chiefs meandered around for four quarters, wasting opportunities and being definitively uninspired on offense. The 16-10 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills was a foray in dwindling inefficiency and stubbornness, encapsulated by a forced pass from Alex Smith that Tre’Davious White intercepted to end the game. The Chiefs have deteriorated not only to the mean, but below the mean as they statistically attempt to maintain institutional bewilderment.
The Bills may have only outgained the Chiefs by 32 yards, but the ultimate statistical tell-tale sign was the pitiful two third-down conversions on 13 attempts. Juxtaposed to the Dallas Cowboys loss, where the Chiefs offense was abandoned in the second half, Andy Reid stubbornly followed patterns of ineffective plays. In a blunt notion, the Kansas City Chiefs week 12 stats reveal a team that played boring, inefficient, and forced football. Above all, the statistical outliers might give hope for a resurrection on innovation. Relying on explosive plays is not a methodology the Chiefs can sustain. Five losses in the last six games make this fact obviously sickening.
Kansas City Chiefs Week 12 Stats and Charts – Opportunity Wasted
Chaos Theory
(At this point in the season, it might be a good time to revisit the concept of chaos theory. In week one, the mathematical debauchery was explained as essentially a fractal graph that assigned value to outcomes in a game, defining which team had more momentum or chaos control.)
Arrowhead Stadium is connotated with home field advantage, a place where the defense usually plays with more conviction behind one of the proudest stadiums in the NFL. That notion hands off the chaos model to the Chiefs, and the defense took full opportunity.
Possibly the most tragic fact about this game is any model shows the Chiefs could have won this game on a coin flip up to the very end. After weeks of the defense allowing opposing offenses to run away with games, they initiated chaos and completed their portion of the task.
The Bills and Chiefs opened with six combined punts. The surprise was not the exchange of punts – both teams have shown flashes of good defense in the first half – rather the lack of purpose in the Chiefs offense. Typically, Smith’s poor performance (read: game-manager) leads to the defense and special teams units giving the offense a shorter and shorter field until they can begin to kick a plethora of field goals.
Yet, the yards to put Harrison Butker in field goal range did not come until 1:44 left in the second quarter. At that point, the chaos theory model was in favor of the Bills, but only by a minimal fraction. Tyrod Taylor poked a hole in the Chiefs with a Zay Jones touchdown reception, but the defense responded. The Bills subsequent missed field goal followed the trend model that the Chiefs should garnish momentum for a score.
The momentum continued into the second half when Smith led the Chiefs for the sole touchdown of the afternoon. Chaos was back at equal, and slight relief performance was shifting might have been had.
Fortunately for the Bills, Daniel Sorensen committed a face mask penalty on top of a 33-yard Charles Clay reception. Despite Justin Houston sacking Taylor, Steven Hauschka had the leg to knock in a 49-yard field goal. The Bills had manipulated chaos in their favor and never gave it back.
Despite Frank Zombo and Reggie Ragland playing phenomenal defense over the remainder of the second half, the Chiefs offense was predominately boring. Even with Sorensen sacking Taylor in crowd-roaring fashion, the Chiefs offense shrugged their shoulders and rode the carousel of dysfunction.
Again, at no point did the Bills control enough of the game for a clear win. Smith had even worked his way up to the Bills 36-yard line (with the help of a pitiful penalty the Bills did not deserve). The Bills defense even changed their modus operandi and transitioned out of cover two for the final drive as Reid’s tinkering began to work. Yet, that forced pass to Tyreek Hill was emblematic of the frustrating desperation the Chiefs had fallen into on the afternoon.
From Bad to Worse
The Chiefs have suffered from game-managing offenses and pandering frustration in the past. After all, the inevitable adjustment to the norm was expected during some games for Smith. In fact, this is his 76th career game under 200 yards and 25 completions. Even in the managerial position, he is 41-36-1. The flip side of that stat line, over 200 yards and 25 completions, has led to a 9-15 record. Smith being an intrinsic manager is not the problem – the problem is the lack of support and innovation from his decision making.
Further delving into Smith’s managerial stat line, 25 of those games have been during his tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs, a 17-8 record. The common theme is one of two factors: rushing attempts at 20 or below (five of the eight losses) or putting the ball in Smith’s hands late and forcing him to take the team to victory. The loss to the Bills was closely representative of the early 2016 loss to the Houston Texans.
Place the ball in Smith’s trust late, and the outcomes are mixed. Considering Smith has led 23 game-winning drives in his career (11th on the active leaderboard) is not wholly bad. However, for his career tenure, that puts him on level with Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson – all franchise leaders who arrived after the turn of the decade. Further implicating these games is the fact only six of the 23 game-winning drives have been in a game where he threw for two or more touchdowns, while nine of those games featured no touchdown outings.
Contextualizing these statistical points, and the fact Smith is not a fourth-quarter monster, the question falls on why Reid would design an offense intrinsic on explosive passing to sustain success. Smith only threw three deep balls the entire game, just as he did in the early season resounding victories. Nothing has changed – the problem is not Smith.
The problem lies in what the short yardage passes are turning into. Built early into the Chiefs system was the modus operandi of getting the ball to Kareem Hunt and Hill on short, high-percentage throws, and then letting their athleticism escape tacklers. However, once defenders figured this scenario out, the offense became one dimensional. If linebackers play up and tackle Hill and Hunt upon reception, then the rest becomes commonly easy. Yes, those two are dynamic talents, but their utilization has been stagnant and consist – both run the same route concepts.
More proof is aligned when considering where the short yardage targets are coming. In week 12, Hill received nine of his 11 targets in either the short left or right of the field. Hunt received only one pass to the flats left. During the wild run of fun, the most successful target came when linebackers emptied out the middle of the field based on a motion, leaving Hunt more operating room.
Now, linebackers float in the middle zone and negate any passing option short. Only three passes went to the short middle of the field; all three were caught, one for 15-yards, the second for 13-yards. Hence, the middle still works when the lane is open.
Yet, all of this could be mitigated by a strong running game – an element of the Chiefs offense that is now imaginary. After Hunt’s dominating start to the year, the Chiefs have witnessed the offensive line turn into a brick wall. Smith was the rushing leader on the day with five attempts for 35 yards. The remainder of designed runs were split between Hunt, Hill, and Akeem Hunt, garnering an abysmal 14 attempts for 20 yards (30 between Hunt and Hill; Akeem Hunt’s run went for negative 10 yards).
In totality, the Chiefs offense is not only not working, it has grown from bad to worse. Their performance left no positive trends to highlight; everything is downhill. Most concerning, this comes after the bye in which the Chiefs usually evolve.
For comparison, the Chiefs struggled with the run late in 2016, owning a five-game streak with yards below 100. However, they still netted 406 yards in that streak, scoring 116 points. In 2017, the Chiefs went on a four-game slide below 100 yards, and magically escaped that fate last week. However, they had only 83 rush attempts compared to 116, while scoring dipped to 89.
In synthesis, when the Chiefs do not control the ball early, the offense falters and forced to inevitable failure. This is not exclusive to a Smith issue; this is an institutional issue.
A Quiet Correction
The Chiefs defense for most of the season has been the object of scrutiny. However, the data line points to a defense that had an anomaly of a good game. The fact ‘anomaly’ ought to be used to describe a good performance is a problem. But, to take the positive and manipulate it into pure ‘anomaly’ would be dismissing any notion players may have taken responsibility and received a bigger role.
The meta notion of the defense was truly ‘bend but do not break.’ The Bills drove into scoring range for five straight drives, but scored only one touchdown while missing another field goal. The Bills owe a bevy of credit to Hauschka for nailing long field goals. Repeating the opening statement, the Chiefs defense adhered to principles and alleviated explosive plays, providing opportunity for a win.
The most positive outcome was LeSean McCoy being held to 49 yards on 22 attempts, while his longest gain was 13 yards. Travaris Cadet managed a few exquisite third down runs in the middle of the field, netting 28 yards on six carries. Fortunately, the box was kept in front of them and Cadet’s longest carry was eight yards. Mitigating egregiously long runs prevented the Bills from gaining momentum.
The one true knock on the Chiefs defense, however, was the lack of turnovers. Taylor protected the helm of the pocket and turned into check-down Charlie when under pressure. Despite two-sacks, he was able to escape the pocket nine times for 27-yards, thus not forcing any passes into poor coverage. The lack of turnovers had more to do with Taylor managing the game instead of the corners playing poorly – they held him to a mere 183 yards passing.
(Note: analyze the quarterback line, and the difference between Smith and Taylor was one forced pass at the end of the game.)
Delving into the micro notes on the game, the play of Ragland and Zombo from linebacker synthesized and sparked the Chiefs principles in the middle. Statistically noting the improvement the two players had is difficult. Ragland led the team with eight tackles, while Zombo came away with three crucial tackles in the second half, all on third down.
Ragland’s tackles came in the short pass and run game, stopping McCoy for negative yardage thrice. His one missed assignment came against tight end Nick O’Leary, in which he allowed a 15-yard reception. Ragland has had trouble against bigger, technical targets in the past, a trend that may continue.
Sorensen also stepped up into a demonstrative role for the defense, landing seven tackles and a sack. He played an important role in tackling receptions and runs that escaped downfield, negating any opportunity there. Despite several weeks where he has been unprincipled, Sorensen played up to the type of safety the Chiefs need to fill for Eric Berry.
However, that missing communication link may haunt the Chiefs longer than they ideally would like. To dampen some of the excitement around the Chiefs defensive performance, Taylor was tuned to a managerial role. He threw only three deep passes the entire game. While none were completed, the lateral and backward speed without Berry is still missing.
Stopping explosive runs is step one for this defense. Much is left to be seen, however, in downfield progressions. The core crew who held the Bills to minimal opportunity need to show up all game long for the remainder of the season.
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