Finishing an NFL season with consistency and marked improvements is the model every championship team follows. The first seven weeks might be fun and jovial, but if the latter half fall off into the mundane, inevitable let down occurs. Being able to mitigate cold weather, division rivals, and the avid home crowd of opponents marks teams who will be competitive throughout the month of January.
The Kansas City Chiefs might have jumped out to a 5-2 record on an offensive high, but unless the second half of the schedule is met with the same enthusiasm, all the effort is for naught. Simply because the Denver Broncos or New York Giants offense has gone quiet does not mean they will be an easy opponent. “Any given Sunday” has become a saying for a reason. Instead of analyzing each opponent as a hurdle, the Chiefs ought to analyze each week as a way for themselves to improve on the marathon to an AFC first round bye, and playoffs in Arrowhead Stadium. That marathon, however, comes one mile at a time. Observing the Kansas City Chiefs second half schedule and finding the nuanced points of how the Chiefs roster can prime themselves for a championship run refocuses expectations.
Kansas City Chiefs Second Half Schedule Analysis
October 30 – vs Denver Broncos
The next game on the docket feels as if the Chiefs have had an unglorified bye week. Since losing the Thursday Night Football match against the Oakland Raiders, the Chiefs will have 11 days of rest to brew, game plan, and improve for another AFC West showdown. The Broncos will be coming into Arrowhead Stadium off two tragic losses due to their offensive let downs.
The Broncos are an opponent all about defense, presenting Andy Reid and Alex Smith a chance to shine on national television again. Smith will be playing arguably the best (second best by stat line) secondary on the schedule. While it may be too smug to come out throwing on Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, throwing to tight end Travis Kelce will provide the Chiefs a fantastic and markable improvement.
Kelce has had trouble handling deep balls the past two weeks, dropping a crucial catch on Thursday night. The Broncos have had the reverse problem, giving up big plays to Giants tight end Evan Engram and Los Angeles Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. Kelce is poised for a big game that dismisses the pedantic and worrisome analytics display.
Furthermore, this will be a homecoming game for Jamaal Charles. The beloved former Chiefs running back still has a knack for explosive plays, and the Chiefs are defensively anemic at giving up explosive runs. The Broncos game will be more about the defense getting right under studied coordinator Dave Toub than it will be about beating the hated Broncos.
November 5 – at Dallas Cowboys
Welcome to Jerry Jones land! The Chiefs will be traveling to the young and enthusiastic Dallas Cowboys in their final game before the bye week. The Cowboys present the Chiefs defense huge problems, but, problems that could result in great benefit for a bounce back game.
Twice through seven weeks, the Chiefs defense has allowed wide receivers Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper to permeate their secondary for their “get right games”. The Cowboys would like nothing more than have Dez Bryant “get right” against the Chiefs.
Marcus Peters has a chance to reinforce the shut down corner title while Terrance Mitchell can play his physical bump and run style. The addition of both might result in one or two Dak Prescott interceptions.
The dramatic air of Dallas may just end in whomever is most explosive out of the backfield. Fireworks often dictate the Cowboys games, and this game schematically will be a test between Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott’s fireworks (barring Elliott’s suspension being enforced). While the Chiefs defense has a chance to improve themselves by mitigating explosive runs, Hunt can continue his search for the rookie MVP award by eluding Cowboys defenders for most of the afternoon.
Or maybe Reid’s creativity will see more Albert Wilson and Tyreek Hill jet sweeps attack where the Cowboys are weak.
Week Ten – Bye Week
The Chiefs will be taking November 12th off. The bye week comes later, but as the Chiefs have been healthy early in the season (less Eric Berry) a late bye week comes with good fortune. Trainers will be able to heal up wounds, players can study, relax, and get ready for the final seven game stretch.
November 19 – at New York Giants
Coming fresh off the bye, the Chiefs will be making their first of two trips to the New Jersey Meadowlands; this trip features a fight against Eli Manning and the New York Giants. However, by week 11 the Giants trajectory could look even worse than it currently does.
Having started the season 1-6 while losing star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and their other three main receiving targets (Sterling Shepard may be making his return by week 11), the Giants offense is truly sad to watch. Their defense is good, but not the juggernaut of turnovers from 2016. No game should be a “must win” game due to the lack of production from an opponent, but if the Chiefs want to be regarded as dangerous, they must beat the lackluster Giants.
This matchup serves two main purposes. First, if the Chiefs pass rush cannot get past Ereck Flowers and the rest of the Giants turnstile offensive line, then serious questions need to be asked. To take serious what was a wrecking force in 2016, Dee Ford and Justin Houston need to have multiple sacks. Championship teams do not leave doubt in areas meant to be excellent, and the Chiefs pass rush has been paid and crafted to be excellent.
An appropriate term for November 19 might be “no excuses.” The offense needs to march into the Meadowlands, grind the clock by running, avoid turnovers and execute. The Giants secondary can still enforce; one errant throw from Smith may result in a momentum turning Landon Collins or Eli Apple splash. Reid needs to take the Giants serious and not retort to old habits of inefficiency amid attempts to be uber efficient.
November 26 – vs Buffalo Bills
Happy Thanksgiving! The game most people will be watching with family after a fun week of festivities will also be featuring Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy looking to lead an enthusiastic Buffalo Bills squad into Arrowhead for a hopeful wild card berth. The Bills have had ups and downs, but more ups through seven weeks on their way to a 4-2 record. Play may regress to the mean by then, but that doesn’t mean the talent won’t be there.
Continuing a theme of stopping explosive running backs, the key to beating the Bills is stopping McCoy and Mike Tolbert from running. As the Chiefs have done in years past, stopping the Bills run game forces Taylor to pass, which usually results in Derrick Johnson forcing a highlight reel turnover. Allen Bailey and Bennie Logan can make statement plays against McCoy, a hard-nosed competitor himself.
Taylor, however, is not always the Taylor of battles between Chiefs past. His opportune and explosive runs still exist, providing apt opportunity for the Chiefs middle linebackers to show their importance. Furthermore, he is making more with less. The Bills traded Sammy Watkins before the season, and have seen newly acquired Jordan Matthews find the injury tent on a recurrent basis.
Charles Clay has become the Bills go to target, indicating Daniel Sorensen and Ron Parker can have a big play game. Both have been great at times, and both have been tragic at other times. If they are the safeties the Chiefs think they are, then physical football against Clay is a great opportunity for growth.
The Bills also provide a learning lesson for the Chiefs offensive line. Behind Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson, a poisonous pass rush has developed. Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif should both be back for this game in order, providing a chance for them to get their legs healthy against a great pass rush.
December 3 – at New York Jets
There are three NFL teams in New York; the Chiefs will be playing all three of them in a row, making their second visit to the Meadowlands take on the latter of the three in the New York Jets. The Jets, a team historically mired in controversy and disappointment, are still wallowing disappointment. However, the disappointment is due to losing close, but winnable games.
The Jets game leading up to the Chiefs is a brutal onslaught of difficult teams – they may be tired out and injured due to a lack of depth. However, the Jets are also pesky. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is having a breakthrough season, and shaping himself as a competitive tight end. Sorensen and Parker will face a second, physical mid-field battle.
Offensively, the Chiefs face another game all about execution. The Jets have allowed over 115 yards rushing in all but two games this season, a trend that will probably continue. They also force turnovers behind hard hitting linebacker Darron Lee. Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye are two rookies in over their heads, but to take that youthful enthusiasm lightly is a mistake as both can battle around the compass of the field. Implication: give the ball to Hunt, rely on Kelce, and clean up with Hill’s explosive speed.
December 10 – vs Oakland Raiders
Raider week round two at Arrowhead Stadium may turn out to be the game of the year for the Chiefs. If all goes to plan for the Raider trajectory, then they will be catching wind in their sails and riding Derek Carr into December for a AFC West title push. To take back the AFC West, the Chiefs need to win round two soundly.
Winning, even winning ugly, is priority for Smith and crew. Everything that went wrong on Thursday night will need to be flipped. The offense was efficient and victorious for 55 minutes, until giving up a sack to Khalil Mack to end the potential icing drive. Stopping an emphatic pass rush needs to occur again, this time, as part of the highest leverage moments.
Hunt excelled in the passing game, but running the ball to keep the ball away from Carr needs to become another priority. Nothing would be as humiliating for the Raiders as to see Hunt take an opening drive run to the house. Which brings up momentum; for a sound win, the Chiefs need to finalize that they have the momentum behind a passionate Arrowhead crowd.
Revenge on behalf of Mitchell and Peters would be opportune as well. Both struggled in giving up big plays to Cooper, Jared Cook, and Michael Crabtree. If Houston can get to Carr, an electric interception party may be coming soon to Kansas City.
December 16 – vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers and Rivers return for their vengeance game against the Chiefs in a bout on Saturday Night football. Rivers is one of the pettiest quarterbacks when it comes to revenge; his usual aggressive streak will be tuned in against the Chiefs.
Toub needs to get his pass rush just as passionate for Rivers, however, as the Chargers could look a lot different come mid-December. After four straight losses, head coach Anthony Lynn has turned the boat the right way up river and won three consecutive games. None of them have been pretty, but a win is a win in the NFL.
Which brings up the peskiness of the Chargers offense and defense. With the heavy use of Henry and Antonio Gates, this will be another week of tests for mid-field coverage. More recently, Melvin Gordon has been used as better in the flats receiving than a running back. But, Gordon’s best game of the year did come against the Chiefs in week three. His explosive nature will haunt a defense that leaves the interior of the field open – hence, Bailey and Logan can send their defense up the right river again on the way to sacking Rivers.
Offensively, the Chiefs struggled against the Chargers in week three. While not bad, they did not execute. 12 weeks later should have Smith and company clicking in full force. Against a marginal Chargers defense, the Chiefs need to feature the full extent of an efficient and thriving offense by stringing together drives.
December 24 – vs Miami Dolphins
Peace, love, joy, and a plethora of sacks – Merry Christmas Chiefs Kingdom, this year will beget the gift of a Sunday afternoon wrought courtesy of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are best described by the facial expression of Jay Cutler – sleepy. Come week 16, the Chiefs can execute a game of perfection and practice, all the while improving themselves.
Cutler has not had the year expected, Jay Ajayi has struggled rushing through seven weeks, and the Dolphins secondary got their first interception against a Matt Ryan duck in week six. All of that said, the Dolphins are 4-2 and have a change of life in backup Matt Moore replacing the now injured Cutler. No coach gets his players up for games like Adam Gase; the week 16 Dolphins could be playing for a wild card with Gase’s college football-esque enthusiasm.
Ajayi is the first point to stop in this game. After struggling to show up in the first seven weeks, a change in game plan may revolutionize the Dolphins. Furthermore, they have deep threats developing in DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry – cue Peters and crew for an interception laden day.
December 31 – at Denver Broncos
Per the usual end of season celebration, the Chiefs will be looking to end the hopes of the Broncos for a second time, possibly knocking them out of the playoffs and taking the AFC West. Time will tell whether the Raiders or Broncos game in December determines the trajectory of the AFC West, but this is the other likely game.
However, analytical trajectory currently does not favor the Broncos offense coming alive, especially if the Chiefs take care of business next Monday night. Trevor Siemian could be throwing more to Chiefs than Broncos, and Hunt could be securing a rookie MVP.
Avoiding hyperbole, the Chiefs will be facing a tough, grinding game that comes down to a last second field goal. To determine momentum into the playoffs. Recall that due to the loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, to claim a round one bye, the Chiefs need to finish with a better record outright. That can only come by Houston, Ford, and the defense finishing their season on a high note and alluding any essence of moral defeat.
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