Aggressiveness is a second nature effect of playing in the NFL. The willingness to put your neck on the line for the team, make dangerous plays, and leave it all out on the field. This is the personality the Kansas City Chiefs need to see from their quarterback room. Aggressive competition amidst unity must be the descriptor used for the Kansas City Chiefs quarterbacks to succeed in 2017. Not only must Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes, Tyler Bray, and Joel Stave take their commitment competing against each other to the next level; but they must become a family where Smith teaches Mahomes, Bray teaches Stave, and Mahomes conversely pushes Smith to get better. Most importantly, however, Alex Smith must embody aggressive confidence every single game in 2017.
Kansas City Chiefs Quarterbacks: Finishing for Success in 2017
A Split Season
The mentality behind aggressive confidence that Alex Smith must embody is reminiscent of the second half of week one against the (formerly) San Diego Chargers. (I wrote a week 1 retrospect last week, so now may be a good time to catch up on how Smith lead the Chiefs back for the largest comeback in franchise history.) After an awful start to the game, Smith ended the game 34 for 48 with 363 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winning rushing touchdown. Again, Smith took over games in wins against the New York Jets (Week 3), New Orleans Saints (week 6), Carolina Panthers (week 8), Oakland Raiders (Week 12), and again in week 17 against the San Diego Chargers.
However, Alex Smith also presented a strange dichotomy when he disappeared in certain games and let the playbook get away from him. Crucial interceptions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 9) and the Tennessee Titans (Week 13) in extension of disappearing against the Houston Texans (Week 2), Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 4), and Indianapolis Colts (Week 7) cost the Chiefs crucial games. Not to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers game in the Divisional Playoff round that featured a premium dink and dunk Alex Smith. What the Chiefs were left with was a quarterback who could turn it on when he wanted, but totally disappear when he lacked confidence. Without a rhythm in the game plan, Andy Reid opted to return to passes that Smith could not get a handle on. His confidence went, and so did his leadership.
The Playbook
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan did something last year that Alex Smith must do – he took over his playbook. Ryan took full ownership of the play book, understood the system he worked in, and was able to foresee a defense not because of the defense, but because of the play destination. Cheesy, but Matt Ryan was ‘one with the playbook’ and was able to make it to the Super Bowl.
At this point in his career, Alex Smith has some mechanical limitations compared to Matt Ryan; particularly a limitation for confidently shooting the ball downfield. Andy Reid’s hybrid west coast offense favors shorter passing routes. No, Smith will not put up the numbers Ryan does, but Smith can become an expert in Reid’s offense. Matt Nagy and Corey Matthaei can study and let Smith into the playbook to give him confidence. Smith’s confidence is going to be born game in and game out if the Chiefs can approach each game plan with a new target in mind. Playing the zone Steelers again? Hit Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Playing the blitz happy Buccaneers? Use new target Kareem Hunt in the screen game. It is not about remaking the playbook, but giving Smith confidence in what he can do, and not forcing him to play from behind.
Learning Through Teaching
One indication of how well the Chiefs quarterbacks may do this year might come in the pre-season performance of the backups. The breadth of the playbook Patrick Mahomes, Joel Stave, and Tyler Bray use in the pre-season will show how much they have learned in camp. More so than performance, this is an indicator of how much Alex Smith is teaching, and therefore, how much Alex Smith is asserting himself as a rookie.
Drafting Mahomes was a genius move by John Dorsey and Andy Reid not only for obtaining the quarterback of the future, but for how much a young player will demand of Smith and Bray. Smith is going to have to compete harder and become Mahomes’ big brother in teaching him the playbook. No longer will Smith be commanding players to move, but he will exemplify everything Mahomes should do. Smith may be known as a game-manager, but the best managers understand the game inside and out. This will be the chance for Smith to remove himself from being a ‘stale’ quarterback.
Bray is going to have to become a professional clip board holder. He is going to be pushed to understand more of the scheme to become a ‘second-coach’ of sorts. Although the NFL has radically changed from this thought format, Jon Kitna, Trent Dilfer, and Vinny Testaverde were all valuable ‘clip-board-holders’ because of the understanding they had for the game. Pushing Bray to this status would be invaluable to helping Mahomes grow.
Confidence in a Productive Finisher
No matter how he prepares in training camp, however, Smith must carry all of this rejuvenated mentality to do one thing: finish. Alex Smith was not able to finish all the time in 2016, and that is very well why so many drives ended in field goals, letting games slip to close.
Thus, the first sign of an improved Alex Smith starts looking at field goals. Cairo Santos made 31 field goals last year, while the Chiefs scored 42 touchdowns. Simply put, score 47 touchdowns and 27 field goals (making up for missed goals – Santos can improve as well!). Turning five drives into scores means one or two more wins, and the ability to score touchdowns in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl. When the ball is inside of the 30 yard-line, Smith must find a way to finish.
Getting into Smith’s direct stats – throwing for 3,300-3,500 yards is a good range. Realistically, this is what Smith can handle. However, there are three other stat lines that need to increase: touchdowns, interceptions, and yards per attempt.
Start off with touchdowns and interceptions. Wait, interceptions? Yes – interceptions. It is very hard to ask an NFL quarterback to increase their touchdowns without increasing their interceptions. Not everyone is the magical Tom Brady with only two interceptions in a season. It also comes with the type of throws Smith needs to increases: risky passes on third down.
Instead of settling for a third down draw or short dump off, Smith should be allowed to work the deep ball to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or Jeremy Maclin more often. The next play is a punt anyways, and with a stellar defense, there is little risk in opting to take a chance down field on third down conversions. Not every play is going to be an interception either, only an increase of three or four to the 12-interception mark. Brett Favre is the classic example of a gun slinger who could win with interceptions, and Smith has a better defense than Favre ever did.
Now the positive of throwing riskier passes: more touchdowns. Of those five touchdowns from field goals mentioned earlier, all five of those should be passing touchdowns. That puts Smith up to 20. Add in riskier throws to Hill downfield, Smith needs to set a career high in touchdowns at 25 this season.
Finally, Smith has had a four-year average of yards per attempt at seven yards. Standing at 7.2 last year, Smith needs to get this up to 7.8. That does not mean he is playing out of where he is best, but is indicative of him understanding the playbook more and being willing to take risks in the middle of the field.
Hit these lines and Alex Smith has transitioned the quarterback room from ‘game-manager’ to ‘confident finisher.’
