The New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC title game Sunday night. This is the second time the two teams will meet this season and the third time in the last two years. These teams know each other well and there won’t be many surprises. The game will simply come down to which team executes better in key areas. Below are the Patriots keys to victory and a Super Bowl appearance.
New England Patriots AFC Championship Keys To Victory
Offense
This matchup has been played enough times that most people can tell how the Steelers are going to attempt to defend the Patriots. Most of the time Pittsburgh will play their typical zone coverage. They will also defend the Patriots two and three receiver packages with their nickle personnel in most situations because of the Patriots ability to take the same personnel from a running formation and split them out five-wide. Their choice of alignment will leave their linebackers in coverage against Julian Edelman when he sets up in the slot which will force Tom Brady to target him often. The trade-off is that the Steelers will try to limit the deep shots taken by the Patriots by playing their safeties deep on the field. With that said, here are the Patriots keys on offense offensive keys.
Avoid Negative Yardage Plays and Penaties
At halftime of this season’s Week seven game Mike Tomlin was asked about how much Edelman getting open frequently over the middle concerns him. Tomlin responded.
“It doesn’t. We can’t allow them to have explosion plays. If we minimize the explosion plays it will give us a chance to keep the score down and win the game.”
That is the Steelers game. They are willing to live with the underneath throws as long as they can rally to the ball and tackle for a short gain. The problem with this strategy against the Patriots is they are the masters of checking the ball down and finding the underneath receiver.
That is why it is imperative the Patriots avoid negative plays. If they do they can methodically march down the field and the Steelers will (mostly) let them. This means New England must avoid giving up sacks, but, more importantly, it means limiting holding penalties that put their offense in long yardage situations. Sacks are a concern, of course, but Brady gets rid the of the ball so quickly that they are rare. In the last game between Pittsburgh and New England Brady was not sacked but his offensive line was guilty of four holding penalties. Holding penalties end drives, but if the Patriots avoid them their chances of moving the ball Sunday are very good.
Red Zone
If the Patriots are able to drive the ball the next key will be to punch it into the end zone when they get the opportunity. This might be a tougher task than simply moving the ball down the field will be. In the previous two meetings between these teams the Patriots have a remarkable eight touchdowns and no field goals. Bill Belichick‘s team has scored nearly every time they have had a chance to do so.
But that might not necessarily be the situation this time around. Missing from this game is Rob Gronkowski. Gronk can make a big impact against every team but his performances the last two times the Patriots played the Steelers games were remarkable. Four of the eight Patriots touchdowns scored in the last two matchups belonged to Gronkowski. On top of that, in the game earlier this year Gronkowski added two huge red zone third down conversions that resulted in touchdowns shortly thereafter. This time around the Patriots are going to have to be more creative to get the ball in the endzone.
Defense
Defensively it is the same story for different reasons. The Steelers have scored a total of 37 points the last two times they played the Patriots, but that total doesn’t include three mid-range field goals that were missed. New England knows Pittsburgh is going to have success moving the ball against them. The Patriots have been unable to consistently generate enough pressure to get to the quarterback and the Steelers running game is next to impossible to shut down. The Patriots have just two sacks over their last two games against the Steelers. Unless they blitz often it is unlikely that number goes up. Here are the defensive keys to victory.
Stay In Your Gap
The Patriots were able to contain Le’Veon Bell in their first meeting this season thanks mostly to the huge effort given by defensive tackle Andre Branch. Branch has been the teams defensive MVP this season and this game showcased why. Branch was often lined up over center Maurkice Pouncey and he consistently won that matchup and disrupted nearly all of the inside runs the Steelers attempted.
The Patriots play a two-gap defense with their defensive tackles often. This means they take on their blocker and try to control him so that they can make a play in the gap either to their left or their right. This defense can be effective against the patient running style of Bell. The key for the Patriots is to not lose patience and jump a gap expecting to tackle Bell, he simply won’t be there anymore by the time they are. Instead they need to wait for Bell to commit to a hole before they engage. They were able to hold Bell to just 81 yards on 21 carries in the last game and that’s about as good as you can hope for against this lethal offensive line/running back combo.
Stop the Big Play
As great as Bell is the Steelers are still at their best when they are in the shotgun spread offense and Ben Roethlisberger is chucking it down field to their 4th receiving option. Usually once they hit one big play the Steelers go into the hurry-up, and then the defense is really in trouble. You can feel the power of the Steelers offense at times like these. It is best for a defense to shut this down before it even gets started. For the Patriots this means playing great man defense down the field on the Steelers secondary options Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates. With Roethlisberger on the field the deep shots are going to come and it will be up to the Patriots cornerbacks to rise to the occasion.
Last Word – Brady vs. Roethlisberger
These teams have their strengths and weaknesses but they are a match for each other physically. They also know each other very well, so outside of the odd trick play there won’t be any surprises in this game. Instead, this game could possibly come down to which quarterback performs better in the key moments. You can’t ask for more than that.
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