The New England Patriots (13-2) and Miami Dolphins (10-5) will square off in Miami this Sunday, the final day of the 2016 NFL regular season. Both the Patriots and Dolphins have already secured postseason berths, but each team still has something to play for in this Week 17 matchup. If New England wins they are automatically the number one overall seed and will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (they can also clinch the top seed in the AFC with an Oakland Raiders loss). If Miami wins and the Kansas City Chiefs lose the Dolphins will climb to the number five spot for the postseason. Below are the Patriots Week 17 keys to victory and a number one seed.
New England Patriots Week 17 Keys to Victory
Stay Focused and Have a Solid Game Plan
This might seem obvious, particularly for a Bill Belichick coached team. There’s no way New England would be unfocused or unprepared under Belichick’s watch, right? But the Patriots found themselves in the same situation, beat Miami in Week 17 and get the number one seed, last season. But defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer were all declared inactive prior to kickoff of the Patriots Week 17 game. Resting players (especially those who are nicked up) isn’t necessarily a bad idea, but if a team wants to win and secure the number one seed, resting some players sends the wrong message.
Even more curious than resting some players was the Patriots game plan against Miami. In the first half of the game against the Dolphins the Patriots ran only five passing plays, but 21 running plays. New England should have dispatched with the 5-10 Dolphins with relative ease, but that conservative game plan in the first half allowed the Dolphins to stick around. By the time Belichick and New England opened up the offense in the second half, it was too late and Miami won 20-10. The Patriots failed to secure the number one seed and ended up having to travel to Denver to face the Denver Broncos, who went on to win the Super Bowl, in the AFC Championship, where Tom Brady and company lost a heartbreaker of a game.
New England should certainly rest, or at least limit, players that are banged up, including Hightower, Martellus Bennett and Malcolm Mitchell. But if the Patriots want to win and secure the number one seed, regardless of what Oakland does, those who are healthy must play. The Patriots must also be focused on the task at hand and have a solid game plan to defeat the Dolphins.
Run the Ball Effectively
Ironically it actually makes some sense for the Patriots to run the ball against Miami this week. The Dolphins rank 30th in total yards allowed per game (381.7), but they are better against the pass. Miami is allowing 239.9 passing yards per game (13th), but they are giving up 141.8 rushing yards per game (30th). Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount has 285 carries for 1,110 yards and 17 touchdowns (team record) this season. Blount needs to get carries on Sunday.
This doesn’t mean the Patriots should abandon the pass for an entire half like they did in last year’s regular season finale. But the Dolphins struggle to stop the run and New England should find a way to exploit that, especially with Blount in the red zone, while also allowing Brady to do what he does.
Win Time of Possession, Get Out to an Early Lead and Limit Jay Ajayi
On average the Patriots possess the ball for 31:13 per game while the Dolphins have the ball for 28:22 per contest. If Brady and the rest of the New England offense can sustain drives that end in points, that will go a long towards hampering what Miami likes to do offensively. The Dolphins rank 26th in passing yards per game (219.7) but ninth in rushing yards per game (116.6). If the Patriots eat up clock and put points on the board early, the Dolphins offense will have to try to keep up with them and Miami will be forced to throw the ball more than they’d like to. Patriots fans would much rather see Miami airing it out, particularly with backup quarterback Matt Moore under center, instead of a steady dose of Jay Ajayi.
Ajayi has run the ball 244 times for 1,213 yards (5.0 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns this season. In the Dolphins five losses this season the former Boise St. Bronco has only 36 carries for 150 yards and one touchdown. In their 10 wins he has 208 rushes for 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns. In the Patriots Week one win over the Dolphins, Ajayi had five carries for 14 yards and four receptions for 31 yards, with no touchdowns and one lost fumble. Miami’s offense relies on production from Ajayi and if New England can control the ball, force the Dolphins to pass more and limit Ajayi’s effectiveness that could go a long way towards helping the Patriots get a win.
New England securing the number one overall seed might not be as important as it was last season because no AFC playoff team this year has as tough a defense as Denver did last season, but the Patriots have better success in the playoffs when the road goes through Foxborough. A win on Sunday will get the Patriots that added security of home-field throughout the AFC playoffs and they would avoid the Pittsburgh Steelers until a potential matchup in the AFC Championship game.
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