As Derek Carr looks to wrap up his third season as the starting quarterback of the Oakland Raiders, a lot of things are falling into place. He’s had a decent 2016, and at points was a viable MVP candidate. More importantly though, he’s helped the 2016 Raiders break the curse and return to the playoffs. His career has just begun, but believe or not, he’s closer to breaking some franchise records than you might think.
Derek Carr and the Franchise Records
Carr versus “The Snake”
Pro Football Hall of Famer Ken Stabler still holds just about every career record in Oakland. Even though he left the Raiders back in 1979, he still holds the franchise marks for game-winning drives, yards and touchdowns as a Raider.
Game Winning Drives
Ken Stabler: 20
Derek Carr: 12
Is this a silly stat to record? While there’s no question that being able to play in close games is a good thing, but shouldn’t good quarterbacks have the game locked up early? What were they doing during the first three quarters that they have to take their game to the next level late in games?
Well, it’s not fair to blame the quarterback all the time. Sometimes they get off to a slow start, but sometimes bad things happen; the rushers fumble, the offensive line stumbles and the other team rumbles. The reality is Tom Brady, Dan Marino and Peyton Manning have the most game-winning drives in NFL history. That’s pretty good company.
Derek Carr is well on his way to breaking the Snake’s franchise record. It took Stabler 10 years to set the record, and Carr is more than halfway there after less than three campaigns. Carr is averaging four comeback drives a season, with six in 2016 alone. If Carr maintains this pace, he’ll pass Ken Stabler in about two years.
Yards
Ken Stabler: 19,078
Derek Carr: 10,962
This record is a lot easier to track, and frankly, a lot easier to break. Quarterbacks are throwing more than ever, and franchise records are falling by the wayside. Once upon a time, you could get in the Hall of Fame for throwing for 4,000 yards. In 2015, 12 quarterbacks pulled that off. With quarterbacks throwing more than ever, it’s not a matter of if, but rather a matter of when.
As of December 22nd, 2016, Carr is on pace to finish the 2016 season with 4,199 yards. That means he’ll enter next season trailing the Snake by 7,622 yards. Considering that Carr is averaging 3,819 yards a season in this scenario, he should easily surpass Stabler in less that two years. Especially when you consider that Carr’s average will only get better.
Touchdowns
Ken Stabler: 150
Derek Carr: 78
Passing touchdowns are very similar to passing yards in that the number is a bit inflated. More attempts mean more completions mean more touchdowns. Just like with passing yards, this article assumes that Derek Carr will continue at his current pace. At this pace, Derek Carr will only throw for three more touchdowns this year, ending his total at 28.
Considering the pass-happy Indianapolis Colts are coming to town, this is unlikely, but alas the average is the only science available. Carr has done as he’s already done, and it’s fair to assume he’ll continue that trend.
Assuming he finishes this season with 28 passing touchdowns, he’ll trail Stabler by 69 touchdowns. Carr is averaging 27 touchdown passes a year. Strangely enough, following that average, Carr will surpass Stabler, yet again, in about two and a half seasons.
Interceptions
Ken Stabler: 143
Derek Carr: 31
Yes, as great as the Snake was, he also holds the franchise record for most interceptions in a Raiders jersey. Just because it’s a record, that doesn’t mean it’s one that you necessarily want a quarterback to break. It’s not necessarily a bad thing. Going to back to inflation, if a quarterback has more pass attempts, he’ll have more yards and touchdowns. But he’ll also have more interceptions.
Carr is currently on pace to throw only one more interception this year, giving him a season total of seven. That means he’ll have thrown 31 interceptions through his first three seasons, giving him an average of 10 interceptions a season. Unlike the other stats on this list, it’ll take Carr quite some time to catch up. In fact, at this pace, Carr won’t pass Stabler until 2027.
The Law of Averages
The worst thing about this article is that it relies heavily on the “Law of Averages.” Carr’s career average is being weighed down by his rookie season. In his first year, Derek Carr only threw for 3,270 yards and 21 touchdowns. As good as Carr has been since, his rookie numbers are keeping his career average very modest. Averaging the last two seasons, Carr would pass Stabler in all three categories in early 2019.
So at this rate, Derek Carr would become the Raiders all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns by the age of 28. He wouldn’t break Stabler’s interception record until 2027, at the age of 36, if he even plays that long.
Carr’s career is off to a excellent start. All he has to do is keep playing the way he has, and he’ll be number one in the positive stats in a matter of three years. However, most people believe this is just the tip of the iceberg. Carr’s star is burning bright and fast, and it’s up to him to see how great he can be.
