With two weeks left, the permutations and maths required to see what needs to happen for certain teams to make the playoffs and in what seed starts to get easier.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Permutations
It’s probably easier for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their week 16 game against division rivals Baltimore Ravens should not only decide the AFC North, but it will be played after the majority of their AFC playoff chasing rivals play that week. I’m going to look at two scenarios – what happens if the Ravens win, and what happens if the Steelers win on Sunday; and how this is going to change what could happen to the Steelers football in January.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Baltimore Ravens:
The math is very simple. If the Steelers lose to the Ravens and the Cleveland Browns, there is no possible way for them to make the playoffs. That’s because, at 9-7, they would have a worse record than Kansas City and Miami do right now, and Miami has the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.
So for the Steelers to stay in the playoff hunt after losing on Christmas, they need to start 2017 the right way – with a win.
There are two ways that they can still sneak into the playoffs with a 10-6 record.
1. By winning the AFC North
The Baltimore Ravens will be on the same record as the Steelers with the tiebreaking going into the final week, but should they lose away to the Cincinnati Bengals- not a foregone conclusion – then the Steelers would claim the division title.
If this happens, they would be the third seed, because at 10-6 and holding the tiebreakers over both Houston Texans(strength of victory), and Tennessee Titans(better conference record), couldn’t overtake them.
2. By sneaking the 6th wildcard spot
Assuming that Kansas City should beat one of the Denver Broncos or the San Diego Chargers, only the sixth wildcard spot is up for grabs, with the other one going to second place in the AFC West.
The Steelers would need some results to go their way, but thankfully hold the tiebreakers over the Texans and Titans (as mentioned previously) – and they hold the tiebreaker over Denver because of a better AFC conference record.
The only team that would be ahead of the Steelers would be the Miami Dolphins who are currently at 9-5. A single win would be enough for Miami to claim the wildcard spot, but their schedule is far from easy. They face the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, and then the New England Patriots in Miami in week 17. Miami could have the wildcard spot sealed before the Steelers even play against the Ravens, or they could be facing a New England team notorious for resting their starters in week 17 after they’ve wrapped up the top seed in the conference and tend to struggle in Miami.
Essentially, the Steelers need the Ravens to lose in either week to make the playoffs. It’s probably best to do your own dirty work and beat them on Christmas Day to be sure
If the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens:
With the AFC North secured, the Steelers have the chance to finish as the second seed – with a bye and a home playoff game in the divisional round. The worst they can do is finish as third seed thanks to holding the same tiebreakers as discussed above.
To finish with a bye, the Steelers will need to win the remaining game against the Browns at home, and rely on results from the AFC West to help out.
The good news, the Steelers hold the tiebreakers over the Kansas City Chiefs (head to head record), and the Oakland Raiders (AFC conference record), should the teams finish with the same win/loss records. The problem is getting to that point.
Pittsburgh is two games behind the Raiders and one game behind the Chiefs. This means that the Raiders need to lose both to the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday, and Denver in the final week; while the Chiefs need to lose to either Denver or the Chargers – both of the Kansas City games take place after the AFC North clash on Christmas.
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