The New England Patriots Super Bowl chances took a huge hit with the announcement Thursday of Rob Gronkowski‘s back surgery. It is reported that the team expects to officially shut Gronkowski down after the surgery by placing him on injured reserve. The move would end his season and might end the Lombardi Trophy aspirations for the Patriots also. That may seem like an overreaction but the Patriots have been down this road before without Gronkowski and it has never paid off for them with the ultimate prize.
New England Patriots Super Bowl Chances
Since Gronkowski was drafted in 2010, the Patriots have been perennial Super Bowl favorites, but when he isn’t in the lineup they have consistently come up short. In 2011, in the middle of a Patriots Super Bowl run, Gronkowski suffered an ankle injury at the end of the AFC Championship game. He was ineffective in their follow up Super Bowl loss versus the New York Giants and received only three passing targets all day. The 2012 season saw Gronkowski suffer multiple injuries to his arm which has resulted in the arm brace he wears while playing to this day. He was ultimately shut down prior to the Patriots AFC Championship game loss to the Baltimore Ravens. In 2013, he tore his ACL and MCL in a brutal collision that caused him to miss the latter portion of the season – the Patriots again fell in the AFC Championship game. With a healthy Gronkowski in 2014, the Patriots were finally able to get over their decade long title drought.
This shows just how difficult it has been for Gronkowski to make it through an entire NFL season. But a closer look at the numbers reveals the otherworldly impact that Gronkowski has had on this team when he is in the lineup too. Between his rookie year in 2010 and 2014 the Patriots carried a record of 20 – 1 in December and later (including playoffs) with a healthy Gronkowski – and that single defeat was in his rookie season! Read that statement over again and realize how ridiculous that is. In other words, between 2011 and 2014, the time when Gronk officially became Gronk, the team was a ridiculous 15-0 in the season’s most important games. Again, that is including playoffs. Over that span when the weather is cold and scoring often drops they averaged nearly 35 points per game, too.
The Patriots always grow stronger as the season moves along. Once they understand who they are as a team they adjust their scheme and personnel and they become very tough to beat. With Gronkowski, they become nearly unstoppable. Over that same 2010-2014 time frame when Gronkowski is out of the lineup (or hobbled as in the 2011 Super Bowl) the team has a December and later record of only 8 – 6, and average just over 27 points per game.
Last season was the first time since Gronkowski’s rookie season that the Patriots ever lost a late season game with him at full strength. Recall that they lost 20-18 to the Denver Broncos when they failed on two-point conversion in yet another AFC championship game. Gronkowski’s unbelievable fourth quarter effort was the only thing that allowed the Patriots to nearly pull even with the Broncos, including twice converting on fourth down with the season on the line.
Gronkowski might not be the best player in the league, but the way he is employed by the Patriots he is the biggest weapon in the league, and the numbers show he is their winning edge. They consistently have a team able to play with anybody come December, but Gronkowski has been what puts them over the top. With him, they are the Super Bowl favorites. Without, they are just one of 12 teams with a slim chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
