If you’ve been watching the New England Patriots over the past few weeks, you know that they haven’t been playing their best football. It all began with a home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who are one of the best teams in the NFC. Uncharacteristic mistakes and turnovers allowed Russell Wilson to make all the necessary plays en route to a thrilling finish and it hasn’t looked much better since.
Although the Patriots have rebounded with two consecutive wins and have corrected the turnovers, those wins came against some of the worst teams in the NFL – the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets. The wins weren’t pretty either. For having one of the best records in the league, the Patriots sure haven’t been playing that way. Here are the keys to victory if New England wants to get back on track against the Los Angeles Rams this week.
New England Patriots Week 13 Keys to Victory
Find Defensive ‘Mojo’
Aside from ranking third in points allowed, the Patriots defense has been pretty lackluster all season. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia‘s squad has struggled to get off the field on third downs, allowing opponents to move the chains 41 percent of the time. Luckily for the Patriots, the Rams only convert on 34 percent of their third downs. This has to be a motivator for Devin McCourty and the rest of New England’s defense playing at home again for the first time since losing to Seattle.
Passing the ball will likely be the Rams first choice of attack, as they have an anemic rushing game and the Patriots weakest defensive area is pass defense. If the Patriots can create pressure up front on early downs to bother first overall pick Jared Goff and limit Todd Gurley‘s running options, third downs could become the Patriots best friend for a change.
A third down would almost guarantee a pass from this Rams team, and any passing play includes a look at wide receiver Kenny Britt. Over the last three games, he has led the Rams in targets, receptions and receiving yards. To avoid back-to-back home losses, the Patriots will need to focus on Britt and control the line of scrimmage.
Run First, Pass Second
When it comes time for the Patriots offense to take the field, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should have a sheet full of running plays as page one in the playbook. In their last three games, the Rams have allowed 446 rushing yards. In week 12 the Rams gave up 209 rushing yards to the New Orleans Saints. McDaniels should call LeGarrette Blount‘s number early and often to continue the run-stopping woes of the Rams.
After the running game has been established, a steady mix of play action and spread formations should keep the Rams defense guessing as to what’s coming next. Quarterback Tom Brady also missed Wednesday’s practice for the second week in a row, leading many to believe the leg injury he suffered against the Seahawks is more of a problem than he is letting on. The best way to prevent Brady from taking hits would be to hand off the ball.
Minimize the Penalties
The number of penalties called on Sunday will be interesting. How they will affect the game is anybody’s guess. When New England has the ball, don’t expect many flags to fly. The Patriots offense ranks 27th in penalties and the Rams defense ranks 28th in penalties. This should result in methodical drives that put points on the board.
When the Rams have the ball, however, that’s another story. Not only is the Rams offense penalized the fourth most in all of football, but the Patriots defense also racks up the penalty yards. New England’s defense ranks eighth in penalties. This means several Rams offensive drives could either end quickly or be extended and result in points.
Speaking of points, the Rams offense scores the least amount of points per game (15.5). The Patriots defense, as mentioned earlier, ranks third in points allowed per game (17.9). It should be a fun one this weekend in Foxborough.
Prediction: New England 31 – Los Angeles 20
