It is a pleasant thought. It is the safe yell from the bleachers. Fire everyone. We all know better, right? The first thing everyone wants to do when their team starts to lose is call for the coach and they save equal rage for the general manager. There is a growing round of anger being directed at Ted Thompson as the Packers’ season is stuck in a death spiral. All that anger is misdirected. No matter what changes are coming, Ted Thompson should stay.
If Firings Come, Ted Thompson Should Stay
Draft Picks
Every season we hear about the hit and miss element of first round draft picks. Finding someone who can be a consistent starter in the first round is good value. Many teams have consistently failed at this. So what has Thompson found in the first round? Well, Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Hawk, Justin Harrell, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Brian Bulaga, Derek Sherrod, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, HaHa Clinton-Dix, Damarious Randall and Kenny Clark. There was also the 2008 season where the Packers had no first round pick and Thompson pulled out Jordy Nelson in the second round. Sherrod broke his leg and was never the same. Harrell had a crazy number of injuries. Several hits and multiple Pro Bowlers. Thompson has kept the cupboard full with young talent.
Fans lack patience. It is our thing. We love big name signings. Thompson is not big on throwing money at names. This is what fans will immediately point to the minute that the Packers have troubles. Further, Packers fans have not had to face those difficult seasons. Fans have had to wait years to jump into the attack. Since taking over in 2005, Thompson has only had three picks in the top half of the first round. Gathering consistent talent without getting a top ten player is the hallmark of Thompson’s run.
Injuries Do Matter
The Packers offense is tenth in passing yards per game and still 19th in rushing yards per game. The Packers started the season with Eddie Lacy who was averaging 5.1 yards per carry and was an pace for about 1,150 yards. All that with just 14.2 carries per game. Lacy was gone after just five games. All this made worse by the injury to James Starks. Not a lot of successful teams are still successful at running without their top two running backs. Would anyone seriously believe the Dallas Cowboys would be as good if Lance Dunbar was the best remaining option to carry the ball? Half the scheme of the offense is gone in one fell swoop.
Then there is the defense. A pass defense that ranked sixth in the league in yards last season has fallen apart. Sam Shields, the elder statesman of the defensive backfield, lost in the first game of the season. Damarious Randall has played in a total of just four games out of eleven so far. Even the nickel back, Quentin Rollins, missed four games entirely this year. The Packers have been playing games while starting their fourth, fifth and sixth cornerbacks. Imagine watching the Seahawks lining up with Neiko Thorpe, Deandre Elliott and Tyvis Powell and trying to stop a healthy receiving corps.
What we might look at is how the Packers have managed to carry on with a successful Nick Perry while Clay Matthews was injured, or watch how LaDarius Gunter held Julio Jones to his season low, or how Joe Thomas fills in for Jake Ryan. This Packers team is deeper than you imagine based on a review of a simple box score.
Talent is Still Showing Through
Nick Perry has been leading the Packers in sacks and is 13th in the NFL with his 7.0 so far. Perry has also been good on the edge in run defense and even intercepted a pass. That is just 2.5 sacks less than Von Miller, but four more passes defensed and the interception. Rodgers has had issues with his accuracy this year, but he is still is eighth in passing yards per game and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 25:7.
Both Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson are on pace for over 1,000 yards and over ten touchdowns. Adams and Nelson are tied at 23rd in the league in yards per game. The Denver Broncos are the only other team with two receivers in the top 23. Randall Cobb is 47th now in yards per game and is on pace for nearly 830 yards and 77 catches. Only three other teams have three pass catchers in the top 47 (New England, New Orleans and Washington).
The Packers also have one of the best offensive lines in football. If you have been watching this team play, you likely noticed that Rodgers is frequently given four to six seconds before he throws the ball. The Packers have 1,006 yards rushing this year with wide receivers playing running back (both Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery). Never mind that the Packers have had to use J.C. Tretter and Jason Spriggs repeatedly this year to fill in.
This team is still making plays and showcasing ability, but the Packers are into their second and third string. Losing can move people into dark places in the inner parts of their hearts, but it is making people call out for blood. There is likely blame, and it seems very likely something the stark January of 2009 is coming, but Ted Thompson needs to stay put as long as he is willing to serve. Clearly, not everyone will agree.
