Last Sunday, the New England Patriots (7-2), lost a close and thrilling game to the Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1) on Sunday Night Football. The bad news for Pats nation is that our team lost against a very good Seahawks squad and that lost came at home which could be a problem should tie-breaking scenarios come into play down the stretch. The good news is that the Patriots travel to the Bay Area to take on an atrocious San Francisco 49ers (1-8), so the team should (key word being should) right the ship this week and head into December on a roll.
New England Patriots Week 11 Keys to Victory
1. Defense Must Recover…Quickly
The woes of the New England Patriots defense has been something I’ve covered again and again and again during this season. Sunday night, their bend-but-don’t-break mentality finally caught up to this unit who has clearly been struggling for quite some time. All was groovy when the Patriots were facing sub-par teams like AFC East opponents or the Cleveland Browns or the Pittsburgh Steelers (without Big Ben). But when facing a team that has a healthy offense able to make big plays, the Patriots defense faltered and they did so on prime-time.
The Patriots defense had virtually zero pass rush against the Seahawks offensive line (which was thought to be the Hawks’ Achilles heel) giving Russell Wilson a clean pocket and ample time to find open receivers. While the Pats’ gameplan may have been to try to keep Wilson inside contain, he made them pay and exposed the secondary as receivers got behind their defenders for big yards. The Patriot’s run defense also imploded, especially in the second half, when (on one drive) the Pats defense gave up ten yards, eight yards and nine yards on three consecutive downs on the ground. All totaled, the Patriots run defense gave up 96 yards on the ground and was the big difference in the second half that forced Tom Brady and company to have to score quickly instead of running the clock out.
The Patriots defense must find a way to create some havoc at the point of attack and get to Colin Kaepernick. They must find a way to force some turnovers and fix their issues on the ground. The good news is that the 49ers are an offense that can’t seem to get out of the basement of the league. They are 29th overall averaging just 20.8 points a game, only 310.8 yards per game and they’re -3 in the turnover differential. But if there is one aspect of the Niners offense to fear its their rushing attack. They are seventh overall in the league on the ground averaging 119 yards per game. To win this game, the Patriots defense has got to step up and have a big day.
2. Blount Needs to Dominate
LeGarrette Blount is having himself a heck of a year. He is averaging 75.3 yards per game on the ground (not bad in an offense dominated by Brady) and averages 3.7 yards per carry. While those numbers may seem only average in a season dominated by Ezekiel Elliott, Jay Ajayi and DeMarco Murray, here is where Blount is different: he finds his way into the end-zone.
Elliott? Nine touchdowns. Ajayi? Six. Murray? Eight. LeGarrette Blount? Twelve. Yes, other rushers have had far more spectacular runs this season. Yes, other rushers have better statistics (Elliott is straight up balling this year and, as a former alum of The Ohio State University, I am enjoying every moment of it) but few can do what Blount does in the red-zone. He shakes tackles with ease, his big frame is able to burst through the wholes that his o-line makes and he makes defenses pay where it counts..on the scoreboard. With the exception of Tom Brady, no one on this offense is more of a consistent force this season than LeGarrette Blount.
Against the 49ers, Blount should have alot of fun on Sunday. San Francisco’s run defense is simply bad, worst in the league bad. They are giving up an average of 180.4 yards per game and 31 points per game, on the ground. They are simply unable to stop opposing rushing attacks giving up 12 plays of 20 yards or more on the ground and five plays of 40 yards or more on the ground. This sets Blount up to have a big day on Sunday and we should see his league-leading touchdown statistic increase after a trip to the Bay Area.
3. Brady Needs a Rebound
On paper, Tom Brady, had a decent game Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. He completed 68.8% of his passes. He threw for 316 yards. And he was only sacked for two full sacks (one full sack and two half sacks). Not bad, right? But, he also failed to find the end-zone for the first time since returning from his four game suspension (prior to Sunday, Brady was throwing an average of 2.4 touchdowns a game). He also gave up two turnovers (and interception and a lost fumble).
The Patriots receivers did a pretty good job as well. Julian Edelman had seven receptions for 99 yards. Martellus Bennett had seven receptions for 102 yards. Rob Gronkowski had only three receptions for 56 yards but he was injured during the first half of the game and will likely miss this Sunday’s game. But none of them found their way into the end-zone. They all came up short when it mattered most and Brady was forced to turn to LeGarrette Blount to score all three of the Patriots’ touchdowns on Sunday in Foxborough.
This week the Pats will likely be without Gronk (who missed today’s practice at Gillette with a reported punctured lung) which means Bennett, who has been a stud since coming to New England, Edelman, Amendola, Chris Hogan, et al will need to step up to help Brady find pay-dirt once more. Complacency is the enemy on Sunday: the Niners give up an average of 191 yards per game in the air 22 plays were for 20 or more yards and five plays of 40 or more yards. They give up big chunks a game and are near the bottom of the barrel as a passing defense in the NFL. The stars are aligned for Brady to find his way back this week and if his receivers can help him out a little bit, it will be a fun day for Brady’s visit back home.
Last Word
Bill Belichick simply does not lose two games in a row. The 49ers are looking like they will compete with the Cleveland Browns to be the #1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. And Tom Brady will want to have a big day against the team that he grew up loving. All of these facts seem to indicate that the New England Patriots will be 8-2 when this game is over with and on their way to securing their 15th straight playoff appearance. But the Pats must not overlook a hurting San Francisco and if they take this team seriously, it could be over early.
Prediction: New England – 30, San Francisco – 13
