It’s not a secret. The AFC West is the best division in football. When you consider that the defending Super Bowl champions have the second most wins in the league, and that they’re currently third, you know that’s a pretty good division. So who will win it? Who will be the AFC West champion?
Predicting the AFC West Champion
San Diego Chargers
The biggest roadblock for the San Diego Chargers is the San Diego Chargers. Halfway through the season, the Chargers are 4-6. It will take a lot of work for San Diego to even break .500, let alone challenge for the division. The Chargers are a lot like their quarterback, Philip Rivers.
Last week against the Miami Dolphins, Rivers threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw four interceptions. At points, they look look like the best team in the NFL. But then again, they also have moments where they look like the worst. Joey Bosa might win Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Melvin Gordon has finally found his footing, but it’s just too late. San Diego would need to win out and for the other three teams in the league to implode to even have a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have won five games in a row, and currently have control of the AFC West, but they just don’t have it. Dee Ford and Marcus Peters are having fantastic seasons on defense, and the unit as a whole is only giving up about 19 points a game.
However, if you look a little deeper, this team has problems. They’ve only allowed 19 points per game, but they’re giving up over 360 yards a game. They’re one of the worst teams in the NFL on third down, allowing their opponents to convert on 44% of their attempts.
Turnover Trouble
The key for Kansas City’s success is that they have the best turnover differential in football at +14. They’ve only given the ball away eight times, but they’ve taken it away 22 times. Big turnovers have given Kansas City the win in their games against the Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Jacksonville Jaguars. In fact, the Chiefs have forced at least one turnover in every win this season. Their biggest loss of the season came against the Pittsburgh Steelers, when they lost 43-13, in a game where they forced no turnovers.
With the 26th ranked offense in the NFL, only scoring the 17th most points in the league, the Chiefs can’t keep relying on turnovers to win games. Eventually, they’ll meet a team that doesn’t turn the ball over, and they’ll lose. The likes of Russell Wilson and Tom Brady aren’t going to throw the game away like Blake Bortles and Cam Newton have.
The Chiefs are good, very good even, but they simply lack the tools to win the big one. Alex Smith is not a championship quarterback, and unless Justin Houston comes back and turns in a historical performance, this team just lacks the intangibles.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are the reigning Super Bowl champions. Von Miller is still wreaking havoc on the NFL, and Trevor Siemian is getting better every week. However, they’re not going to repeat as AFC West champions. Despite winning the division in each of the five last seasons, their time is up.
Run Defense
As great as the defense can be, they have some huge holes. They can’t stop the run to save their lives, and their offense is atrocious. Denver’s passing defense is number one in the country, but their run defense is 28th. They’re giving up almost 130 yards a game on the ground, and they’ve given up nine rushing touchdowns all year. They have to face Spencer Ware and the Chiefs twice before the season ends, and they can run the ball all day if you let them.
Offense
On offense, they’re 27th in the league. They’re only averaging about 328 total yards and 24 points a game. They’re one of the worst passing and rushing offenses in the league, and they’re simply not a credible team. At least with the ghost of Peyton Manning at the helm last season, their offense had credibility. This year? Not so much. It will likely take 12 wins to take the AFC West and the Broncos are already a game behind Kansas City and the next team on this list.
Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders are the most talented team in the AFC West. The path to the playoffs has already been carved out for the Silver and Black, and Derek Carr is the best young quarterback in football. They can run the ball at will, they can make explosive passing plays through the air, and they’re currently tied with Kansas City for the division lead.
Sleeping Giant
Many people will argue that Oakland’s defense is so porous that they can’t possibly be taken seriously. And it’s easy to see why. They give up 398 yards and 25 points a game. At points this season, they’ve looked absolutely dreadful.
However, over the last few weeks, that has changed. Maybe it’s the emergence of Khalil Mack, who has six sacks in four games, or maybe the team has just gotten it together, but over the last few weeks, Oakland has only given up an average of 330 yards and 22 points a game. Over that span, they’ve registered six sacks, forced three fumbles, and picked off three passes. The defense has only improved, and they’re going to get better.
Aldon Smith and Mario Edwards Jr. will return soon, and they’ll only make the Raiders better. Their secondary has been their biggest weakness, but outside of Rives, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, the Raiders don’t really play another dangerous quarterback in 2016. The defense is starting to click at the best possible time.
Pick Your Poison
The defense has started to click, but the improvement of the offense is what’s scary. Oakland’s rushing attack demolished Denver on Sunday Night Football, and the Raiders didn’t even need to tap into their potent passing attack. If a defense manages to slow down Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree, they have to fight off one of the most physical offensive lines in football.
The only team that can prevent the Oakland Raiders from winning the AFC West is the Oakland Raiders. They are in charge of their own destiny, and as long as they stay healthy, they should be able to stay on track.
