The New England Patriots sudden trade of starting linebacker Jamie Collins comes as a big shock to many who follow the team. The compensation they are due to receive is even more surprising. The Pats agreed to trade Collins to the Cleveland Browns for only a 2017 third round compensatory pick (if Cleveland is awarded a third round selection – if not the pick becomes a fourth rounder). What stands out the most is that if the Patriots were to simply let Collins leave in free agency after the season it is likely they would receive their own 3rd round compensatory pick – albeit in 2018. Essentially all the Patriots have done is move a third round pick up by one season. That does not seem like a strong value for the three-down linebacker, there must be more to the trade.
Jamie Collins Trade Analysis
The Emergence of Elandon Roberts
Given the relatively weak compensation received it is clear that the Patriots wanted to get rid of Collins. If that is the case they did so with one thought in mind – get more playing time for emerging rookie Elandon Roberts. Roberts has seen considerable playing time so far this year, but it was a surprise when Roberts made the final roster coming out of camp. To do so he beat out returning linebackers Rufus Johnson and fellow draft pick Kamu Grugier-Hill.
Roberts first showed up for the Patriots against the Cleveland Browns in week five. Roberts had a standout game with seven tackles, including one stuff behind the line of scrimmage. He also did this. Roberts was effective again the next week against the Cincinnati Bengals while starting in place of the injured Collins. His performances in his spot starts were enough to make an impact, and to get his fellow teammates talking.
This past Sunday, in what was clearly a sign of things to come, Roberts was part of a linebacker rotation with Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower. This was unusual as both Hightower and Collins are usually viewed as three-down linebackers and play every snap while the games are still competitive. The willingness to rotate Roberts into the mix indicated they feel Roberts may be on par with his more experienced teammates and is now ready to take on a bigger role for the team.
More Flexibility in Free Agency
As noted earlier, by letting Collins walk at the end of the season the Patriots would be due to receive a compensatory selection in return. As noted by Mike Sando at ESPN, this is true only if the Patriots do not sign an equally big name in free agency themselves. By locking in their compensation now the Patriots leave themselves open to be able to dip into free agency without possibly losing a pick as a consequence.
A Message to the Defense
Going into week eight the Patriots rated first in the AFC with only 107 points against. Advanced statistics aren’t nearly as kind to the defense. DVOA had them rated as 17th overall but only 25th against the pass, and that is while facing the leagues 12th easiest offensive schedule. Former Patriots front office executive Michael Lombardi clearly believes that head coach Bill Belichick is sending a message to the team with this move.
This is an interesting angle, and it opens up the possibility the Patriots may not be finished trading. In recent weeks new acquisition Eric Rowe has found his way into the starting lineup at cornerback in place of Logan Ryan. Ryan, like Collins, has his contract expire after this season. If the Patriots have liked what they have seen from Rowe then they may be willing to move on from Ryan early if they are able to extract value from another team.
Returning Players
These moves could also be a part of a larger team consideration – roster spots. The Patriots have three players on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Running back Dion Lewis, and offensive linemen Sebastian Vollmer and Tre’ Jackson. Lewis has begun practicing, but the status of the two linemen is uncertain. The Patriots also have a deep roster and risk losing a developmental young player to make room for these injured players when they return. They may decide there is more value in trading a current roster player and atleast receiving some compensation in return.
