The New England Patriots travel to Buffalo this weekend to take on the division rival Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park. This match-up could be the most important game in the AFC this year. The Patriots have few remaining difficult games on their schedule. With a win Bill Belichick’s team will move to 7-1, be up three games up on the Bills in the AFC East, and they will have a clear path to the number one seed in the conference. The game is just as important for the Bills. A victory puts them effectively a half-game back of the Patriots by virtue of a season series-sweep since Rex Ryan‘s team defeated the Patriots 16-0 at Foxborough. If Buffalo loses on Sunday their postseason hopes will be relegated to a wild card battle with the Cincinnati Bengals and a strong group of competition from the AFC West.
The Patriots were not at full strength in the first game. They were missing Tom Brady (suspension) and Rob Gronkowski was still somewhat limited due to injury. The result of that first game cannot be completely thrown out, but fans can expect a different style of game this time around. Here are the New England Patriots week eight keys to victory.
New England Patriots Week Eight Keys to Victory
Establish the Lead
The Bills formula for victory in every game is no mystery: Feed the ball to LeSean McCoy on offense, attack the passer on defense. The best way for the Patriots to counter this is to establish the lead. If the Patriots fall behind then the Bills will look to unleash Lorenzo Alexander and his league leading nine sacks. Even worse would be the barrage of runs New England would see from McCoy and backup Mike Gillislee. The Patriots boast the league’s fifth rated run defense by DVOA. They are capable of limiting the Bills run game and not allowing it destroy them. But New England can tilt the field in their advantage by grabbing an early lead and limiting how many runs they have to face.
In their past two games the Patriots have managed only a single field goal on their opening possessions. In week six versus Cincinnati they opened with a field goal before the offense went through a brief dry spell. Last week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers the Patriots fumbled on their opening play from scrimmage. The game on Sunday is the perfect time for the Patriots to correct their early game hiccups.
Keep Tyrod Taylor in the Pocket
As effective as Gillislee has been in relief of McCoy (6.2 YPC), it is Tyrod Taylor who is second on the team in rushing with 271 yards on the ground and a 6.6 yards per carry average. Taylor is the key to the Bills attack, not just for his rushing, but for his passing outside the pocket also.
The New England pass rush has been anemic this season. They have 11 sacks so far in 2016, good for 24th in the league. But that is despite carrying the lead in almost every game this season. They have an adjusted sack rate of only 3.4%, good for 31st in the league and ahead of only the Steelers on the season. The good news is they don’t need to sack Taylor. The Patriots just need to keep him in front of them. They need to make sure he cannot escape the pocket around the edges, and they need to be ready to close down the lanes up the middle when they sense he is about to take off. In short, New England’s pass rushers need to rush with discipline. This is something the Patriots are capable of doing. In three games versus the Patriots, Taylor has only 72 rushing yards, just 24 yards per game.
As noted earlier the Bills had a strong game rushing against the Patriots in Week four, but they were not dominant. The Bills attack will get yards on the ground. The key for the Patriots will be to limit the damage Taylor does, and the best way to do that is to keep him in the pocket.
Get the Secondary Options Involved on Offense
Shane Vereen, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Martellus Bennett are all names of players who have led the Patriots in receiving in victories against Rex Ryan in the last few seasons. The focus of Ryan is going to be to take away Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The Bills have a secondary that is great in coverage and includes stand-out corners Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. The league knows that Gronk is going to get his yards no matter what, but the Patriots will need secondary options to step up if they want to dominate this game on offense.
But that contribution cannot be expected to come from the running game. If anything is certain it is that Ryan led defenses shuts down the Pats run. In the last four seasons the Patriots leading rushers against Ryan’s teams are averaging less than 46 yards per game in seven games.
The keys to this game will be the impact Martellus Bennett, former Buffalo Bill Chris Hogan, and passing back James White can have. Bennett will play but he is still nursing an injury, and he caught only a single ball last week versus the Steelers. Hogan, who fumbled on his opening touch last weekend, received only one more pass the rest of the game. Expect to see a lot of White this week.
If the Patriots struggles against Ryan’s teams on the ground continue expect them to adapt quickly. They will move to more four and five-wide sets with White as the lone back or even lined up out wide. In White’s last eight games playing with Brady he has 457 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Over a full season that projects to 12 touchdowns and over 900 receiving yards.
Last Word
There are no mysteries in this match-up. The Patriots are coming to town to pass the ball all over the field. The Bills want to dominate on the ground and they aren’t going to let the Patriots feed their top targets all day long. It will be the Patriots ability to find secondary targets in the passing game that will decide the course of this game. New England lost the first matchup against the Bills this season, but expect the Patriots to make adjustments this time around.
Prediction
Patriots 26 – Bills 21
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