It’s hard not to get excited at the prospect of the Oakland Raiders ending their 13 year playoff drought. At 5-2, is it time get serious about their chances to make the postseason?
Examining the Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances
According to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo based projection system, the Raiders have a 37% chance to make the playoffs, up from 27% last week. Football Outsiders’ DVOA playoff odds are even more bullish; they give Oakland a 55% chance to reach the postseason.
There is a solid case to be made on the Raiders behalf. FiveThirtyEight allows us to view the Raiders win probabilities in each of their remaining games:
| Week | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | @ TB | 45% |
| Week 9 | vs DEN | 37% |
| Week 11 | vs HOU | 46% |
| Week 12 | vs CAR | 52% |
| Week 13 | vs BUF | 45% |
| Week 14 | @ KC | 23% |
| Week 15 | @ SD | 41% |
| Week 16 | vs IND | 60% |
| Week 17 | @ DEN | 22% |
While they are clear favorites in just one game, Week 16 against the Indianapolis Colts, they will only be heavy underdogs in two, Week 14 at the Kansas City Chiefs and Week 17 at the Denver Broncos. If there is one thing we have learned about the Raiders so far, it is that they have a propensity for emerging victorious from 50-50 type games.
However, there is no guarantee this trend will continue. In fact, there is plenty of evidence indicating it will not.
The Raiders have overachieved according to many metrics. Oakland’s expected record, calculated using the team’s +6 point differential, is 3.6-3.4. They rank just 17th in Total DVOA and 20th in Elo. Regression to their true level of performance is likely.
The AFC Best
To make matters worse, the Raiders play in the toughest division in the NFL. They have jumped out to an early lead in the standings, but are unlikely to maintain it. FiveThirtyEight gives the Raiders an 8% chance to win the AFC West, compared to 47% and 43% odds for Denver and Kansas City, respectively. Football Outsiders paints a similar picture, with the Raiders 20% odds trailing the Broncos at 45% and the Chiefs at 28%. Oakland has 4 division games remaining, and just one will be played at home.
Oakland will also face a pair of interesting scheduling quirks. Their Week 11 matchup against the Houston Texans, while technically a home game for the Raiders, will be played in Mexico City, over 2,000 miles from Oakland. In Week 14, the Raiders travel to Kansas City on short rest to play the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.
In Summation
The Raiders are not necessarily doomed in these games, though; they have proved themselves capable of overcoming travel disadvantages. Their 4-0 road record includes three wins in games with a 1:00 start time and two wins in the Eastern Time Zone.
Thanks to their hot start, the Raiders should remain in playoff contention for the remainder of the season. At the very least, Raider Nation will get to experience meaningful games in November and December.
