Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Wasted Luck and the NFL’s Real Off-Season Grades

Running down how Ryan Grigson has wasted Andrew Luck's potential and really grading the NFL's best and worst off-season moves.

Someone needs to save Andrew Luck. Seriously. His general manager, Ryan Grigson, is either massively incompetent or is secretly a Manchurian Texans/Titans/Jaguars Candidate. Here’s what Grigson said following their disastrous 1-3 start, “We have a defense that is work in progress. When you pay Andrew what we did, it’s going to take some time to build on the other side of the ball.”

WHAT!? Did Ryan Grigson just blame Andrew Luck for not being able to draft good defensive prospects or sign quality defensive free agents?

Since taking over, here’s how his defenses have finished: 2012 (26th), 2013 (20th), 2014 (11th), 2015 (26th), and 2016 (30th). That makes four out of the five years he’s managed the team, his defense has been horrible (20th or higher).

But wait! Maybe it wasn’t his fault. Maybe the defensive coordinator is at fault, right!?

Not so fast. Someone picks the talent. On Grigson’s watch only six defensive players have been selected to the Pro Bowl, BUT only three were a result of Grigson (D’Qwell Jackson in ’15, Vontae Davis in ’15, and Mike Adams in ’15 & ’16). Again. Only three Pro Bowlers in four years! Does he think he’s working for the Cleveland Browns!?

Putting that into perspective. The New England Patriots have had seven Pro Bowlers during that span – meaning Grigson isn’t even half as good as New England at scouting. And that’s not even factoring in Mike Adams being a late addition in 2015 and 2016 as a replacement.

Topping it off, he’s been gifted a horrible division to compete in and will most likely miss the playoffs again (this year) – like playing in the Mountain West Conference and not making a Bowl Game.

And let’s not get started on the abominable Trent Richardson trade, zero Indianapolis Colts offensive linemen not making the Pro Bowl for the last four years, and the awful three year, $21 million contract for a way past his prime Andre Johnson.

Case in point, general managers can be stupid. Anyway, it’s six games into the season; it’s time to officially start grading the off-season moves. Because well, who else is keeping track!?

*Note: Not every move was graded, just the more notable ones.

Wasted Luck and the NFL’s Real Off-Season Grades

 

NY Giants

Moves: Olivier Vernon – five years, $85 million, Jason Pierre-Paul one year, $10.5 million, Damon Harrison five years, $46.5 million, Janoris Jenkins firve years, $62.5 million

Forget the Super Bowl parade. $36.2 million this year for three players who’ve combined for a measly two sacks through six games. To make matters worse, Vernon is being paid more than JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, AND Calais Campbell. At what point during last season did Jerry Resse say to himself, “WOW! Got to get that guy!”

If it wasn’t for the Janoris Jenkins signing this would be a horrible haul!

Grade: D+

Washington Redskins

Move: Josh Norman – five years, $75 million

The skinny: Paid like the best cornerback but isn’t the best cornerback. Super solid and definitely top five at his position but Janoris Jenkins is more reliable. He dld hold Dez Bryant to eight yards and one reception, at $12.5 million. A playmaking Patrick Peterson or shutdown Richard Sherman for cheaper would probably be a better option.

Also. Spotrac.com has Norman’s market value set at $13.8 million. Seems about right.

Grade: B+

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Move: Traded DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford

Here’s Philadelphia’s haul: 2016 first and fourth rounder, and a 2017 conditional fourth rounder. Not bad if you quickly glance over it but doesn’t Murray’s throwaway ruin this!? The Eagles just gave away a top ten running back, who’s fourth in the league in rushing yards, for a 4th rounder because he didn’t fit Chip Kelly‘s offense and ran behind a horrible offensive line last year. Imagine Murray lining up behind Carson Wentz.

Grade: B

Chicago Bears

Move: Traded Martellus Bennett

Bennett’s projected to finish with 968 yards and 11 touchdowns while featured in a scarier offense than the Falcons. A fourth rounder was the best Chicago could get while perplexingly handing the Pats a sixth rounder too?

Also: this might be the second most significant 2016 trade right after the Sam Bradford deal.

Grade: D-

 

Minnesota Vikings

Move: Traded for Sam Bradford

Think about this. The Denver Broncos won last year’s Super Bowl because of their suffocating defense, a good running game, and a quarterback just good enough to win the big one. Can this year’s Vikings do the same? Tossing this in: for a 2017 first, a 2018 fourth rounder (conditional), plus only $6 million on the books while having Philly eat $11 million as part of the deal, that actually looks really good doesn’t it?

Grade: B

 

Atlanta Falcons

Moves: Alex Mack five years, $45 million, Mohammed Sanu five years, $32.5 million, Derrick Shelby four years, $18 million

So maybe the Shelby signing can be read as to be determined because of the Achilles injury, but Sanu’s just rounding into form, and Mack has been terrific. Now consider this. Sanu’s contract is valued as the 55th best receiver (super cheap!), he’s currently projected as finishing with 645 yards and five touchdowns, but most likely will end up with 750+ yards and at least eight touchdowns especially in that high powered Falcons offense. One more sweetner. Mack’s contract is valued as the the tenth best center, but actually should be higher – he’s on his way to the Pro Bowl this year.

Grade: A

 

Arizona Cardinals

Move: Traded for Chandler Jones

How much is Jones worth? An early to mid first rounder, most likely. But is Jones worth a late 1st rounder, absolutely. So giving away a late second rounder AND a underwhelming Jonathan Cooper, who just got released by the Patriots, was definitely a huge win.

Jones 2016 stats – four sacks, one fumble recovery, and 20 tackles. On pace for 11 sacks and 40 tackles.

Grade: A+

 

New England Patriots

Move: Traded for Martellus Bennett, Traded away Chandler Jones, Chris Long 1yr/$2 million

Already covered the Martellus trade (A++), and Chandler Jones (C), but Chris Long’s sack total is sitting at a lonely one through six games. Not a bad gamble though for just one year and a measly $2 million.

Grade: B

Baltimore Ravens

Moves: Eric Weddle four years, $26 million, Mike Wallace two years, $11.5 million

Always hard to figure out the effectiveness of a safety besides relying on the usual numbers but here’s this:

  • The Ravens are on pace to shatter their 2015 interceptions total (six interceptions/dead last) and have already surpassed it (2016: eight interceptions through six games for 3rd overall). 
  • Sacks are usually a reflection of good secondary coverage – Baltimore finished 2015 with just 24 sacks for 30th overall. Through 2016’s six games the Ravens have already clobbered the quarterback 11 times and are on pace for 29.
  • 2015 pass defense – 233 yards/game. 2016 – 225.
  • Weddle’s being paid as the 14th best safety ($3.75 million per year).

As for Mike Wallace, remember when Joe Flacco lost Steve Smith to an Achillies tear last year and suddenly deep bombing Joe Flacco regressed into scatter shot Joe Flacco? Well, deep bombing Joe Flacco is back. Coincidence? No. Flacco has always succeeded when paired with deep threats: Wallace, Steve Smith, and Torrey Smith. And at a bargain of $5.7 million (29th overall receiver salary) a year, how can the Weddle deal plus Wallace’s  not guarantee Baltimore a smash off-season!?

Grade: A+ 

Houston Texans

Moves: Brock Osweiler four years, $72 million, Lamar Miller four years, $26 million

Can everyone go ahead and call this a night and day signing? Lamar Miller, outside of his touchdown production, has been rock solid. He’s fifth in total yards (520), fifth overall in yards per game amongst workhorse backs (100+ carries), and first in my “quarterback hinders me so I have to carry a lousy offense” club. Seriously, here’s the pairings for the leading rushers:

  1. Ezekiel ElliottDak Prescott
  2. LeSean McCoyTyrod Taylor
  3. David Johnson Carson Palmer
  4. DeMarco MurrayMarcus Mariota
  5. Lamar Miller – Brock Osweiler
  6. Devonta FreemanMatt Ryan

For Osweiler though, he’s been atrocious. He can’t get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. He barely outlasted a Walking Dead-esque Colts defense. And he currently has Texans fans already wanting to press the do-over button on his signing. 

Grade: C

Tennessee Titans

Moves: Traded for DeMarco Murray

If this is what Tennessee got for swapping fourth rounders: 526 yards (fifth), four touchdowns (seventh), 87.7 yards per game (fourth), and 5.5 yards per carry for workhorse backs/100+ carries (fourth). HUGE win for the Titans.

Grade: A+

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