Week Four of the fantasy football season is the start of the bye weeks. Both Philadelphia and Green Bay can use this week to rest and get healthy. This marks the beginning of eight consecutive bye weeks. The next time we will have a full slate of NFL games? Thanksgiving weekend.
Now is the time to go deeper in the fantasy analysis. The critical component to winning during the bye weeks is maximizing the matchups. It is important to predict the contrarian plays many others will not see. Who are the top performers who will bust this weekend? Who are the underachievers who will break into the top positional rankings as well? This column will answer those questions.
Week 4 Fantasy Football: Boom or Bust
This is not just a “garden variety” fantasy football column. Recommending to start Andrew Luck, or sit a backup running back is not honest fantasy football journalism. The “Booms” will be those players that have under-performed this season, but will project to do well this week. The “Busts” will be players who have been quality fantasy producers, but will severely underperform. This column will provide contrarian plays from the typical canned fantasy advice.
Each week this column will give 20 Boom/Busts for fantasy lineups, including a full disclosure breakdown of the prior week. Please enjoy the balance of contrarian predictions and full accountability.
Week Three results:
Booms: LeSean McCoy (W), Charles Sims (W), Eddie Lacy (L), Michael Floyd (L), DeVante Parker (W), Jimmy Graham (W), Blake Bortles (L), Mark Ingram (W), Marcus Mariota (L), Miami Defense (L)
Busts: Ryan Mathews (W), Isaiah Crowell (W), DeMarco Murray (L), Carson Palmer (W), Demaryius Thomas (L), Vance McDonald (W), Matthew Stafford (L), Jordan Reed (W), Odell Beckham (L), San Francisco Defense (W)
Season Record: 21-19
BOOMS
Joe Flacco, Baltimore, QB
Matchup: Home vs. Oakland
Year To Date Positional Rank: 23rd
Projection: QB12 or better
Joe Flacco is tied with the sixth most passes among quarterbacks, yet is only ranked 23rd. That all changes on Sunday, when Baltimore hosts Oakland. The Ravens are 3-0 after gutting out road wins at Cleveland and at Jacksonville. Their high-powered offense hasn’t clicked yet, but will get a Raiders team on their second consecutive 1:00 pm East Coast start. Throw in the league’s worst pass defense (340.1 yards per game), and you have the recipe for a top 12 fantasy quarterback finish from Flacco. Start him with confidence.
Brian Hoyer, Chicago, QB
Matchup: Home vs. Detroit
Year To Date Positional Rank: 31st
Projection: QB15 or better
A Chicago Bears team returns home after a tough home drubbing from Philadelphia followed by a loss at Dallas. Hoyer replaces the injured Jay Cutler, and showed flashes of fantasy relevance both with Houston and Cleveland the last two seasons. He faces a Detroit team at home that allow the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Given the limits of the Bears defense, Hoyer will need to put up points to keep this close. Definitely worth of starting consideration, and could be top 12 at the end of the weekend.
Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota, RB
Matchup: Home vs. New York Giants
Year To Date Positional Rank: 66th
Projection: RB24 or better
Here is the Jerick McKinnon breakout game. The Giants have been very strong against opposing running backs (second fewest fantasy points allowed), but will face a very dynamic McKinnon on the road in a dome. Last week at Carolina, McKinnon received the majority of touches against a tough defense. Look for the Vikings to split him out wide, be active in the screen game, and be difficult to contain. Quarterback Sam Bradford does not like to throw deep, and will provide McKinnon with the perfect breakout opportunity on Monday Night Football.
Charles Sims, Tampa Bay, RB
Matchup: Home vs. Denver
Year To Date Positional Rank: 24th
Projection: RB12 or better
Second consecutive home game for Tampa, and second consecutive road game for Denver. Sims is now the lead running back in Tampa Bay, due to Doug Martin‘s injury. While the Broncos have a strong overall defense, they are only 27th against the run (127.7 yards allowed per game). On the road last year, the Broncos gave up eight touchdowns to running backs. Last week at Cincinnati? Jeremy Hill rushed for 97 yards and two touchdowns, with a 5.7 yards per carry average. Sims will be an RB1 this week.
John Brown, Arizona, WR
Matchup: Home vs. Los Angeles
Year To Date Positional Rank: 86th
Projection: WR24 or better
Last weeks big loss at Buffalo provided Cardinals fan with one silver lining: John Brown is back. After suffering a concussion in the preseason that lingered into the season, Brown saw 11 targets and caught six passes for 70 yards. The Cardinals will look to bounce back from last week against a poor Rams secondary. With fellow wide receiver Michael Floyd limited from a concussion himself, look for double digit fantasy points from “Smoke” Brown on Sunday.
Steve Smith, Baltimore, WR
Matchup: Home vs. Oakland
Year To Date Positional Rank: 57th
Projection: WR24 or better
Rationale: Smith has his first big breakout game against a putrid Oakland secondary.
Julio Jones, Atlanta, WR
Matchup: Home vs. Carolina
Year To Date Positional Rank: 25th
Projection: WR12 or better
Rationale: Owners are scared of Julio’s once catch performance last week, and a tough Carolina matchup. Start with confidence.
Tyrell Williams, San Diego, WR
Matchup: Home vs. New Orleans
Year To Date Positional Rank: 34th
Projection: WR18 or better
Rationale: Most targeted Chargers receiver since Keenan Allen injury, gets Saints as gift at home.
Jordan Reed, Washington, TE
Matchup: Home vs. Cleveland
Year To Date Positional Rank: 14th
Projection: TE8 or better
Rationale: This is Reed’s “get right” game. Visiting Browns allow production with volume.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
Matchup: Home vs. Kansas City
Year To Date Positional Rank: 29th
Projection: DEF12 or better
Rationale: Angry Steelers team has strong run defense. Chiefs will need to rely on passing game. Bad idea.
BUSTS
Derek Carr, Oakland, QB
Matchup: Away at Baltimore
Year To Date Positional Rank: 8th
Projection: QB13 or worse (Do Not Start)
Carr is currently the eighth best fantasy quarterback, with 867 yards, five touchdowns, and only one interception. The issue in this game is his opponent. The Ravens have the second best statistical defense in the league, allowing only 254.3 yards per game. The Raiders will travel across country for the second straight week, which has been a bellwether this year of a poor performances. This will be a bad spot for Oakland, who will struggle to run the ball against a now healthy Ravens front seven. Carr should find his way to the fantasy bench for owners.
Trevor Siemian, Denver, QB
Matchup: Away at Tampa Bay
Year To Date Positional Rank: 11th
Projection: QB15 or worse
Siemian has been very impressive in his first three career NFL starts. He played very well last week at Cincinnati, where he threw for 312 yards and four touchdowns. Traveling across country for the second week to Tampa Bay will prove to be a tough task. Much like when Jameis Winston traveled to Arizona in Week Two, Siemian’s performance will push him out of the top 12 quarterback performances. This will be the weekend Siemian comes back down to earth a bit, as Tampa Bay gets a big home win after a shocking loss to the Rams in Week Three.
Latavius Murray, Oakland, RB
Matchup: Away at Baltimore
Year To Date Positional Rank: 15th
Projection: RB24 or worse
The fantasy community needs to be worried about Latavius Murray. He is the 15th fantasy running back, yet has only received an average of 10.4 carries per game. Murray has been saved by having a rushing touchdown in each game this season. However, both DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard have received carries. Going against a Ravens defense that has only allowed 86 rushing yards per game, Murray will fall out of the top 24 fantasy backs this weekend.
Spencer Ware, Kansas City, RB
Matchup: Away at Pittsburgh
Year To Date Positional Rank: 12th
Projection: RB24 or worse
The luster is off the Spencer Ware Week One performance, and traveling to Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football will make it even worse. The Steelers boast the fourth best rushing defense (75.3 yards allowed per game) and are even tougher at Heinz Field. Ware’s fantasy production has dropped each week (25,9,7) and has to contend with the return of Jamaal Charles as well. The time has arrived to put Ware back on your bench.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants, WR
Matchup: Away at Minnesota
Year To Date Positional Rank: 10th
Projection: WR24 or worse
The Vikings defense is real, very real. Having faced a difficult gauntlet of quarterbacks (Mariota, Rodgers, Newton), Minnesota has already been battled tested. In comes the Giants, and quarterback Eli Manning who hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns against a Mike Zimmer coached defense since 2007. In a low scoring defensive battle, the rookie Shepard gets bottled up by the superior Vikings secondary.
Coby Fleener, New Orleans, TE
Matchup: Away vs. San Diego
Year To Date Positional Rank: 11th
Projection: TE15 or worse
Rationale: Snead return, trip to San Diego, puts Fleener back in WK1 & 2 production level.
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee, RB
Matchup: Away at Houston
Year To Date Positional Rank: 2nd
Projection: RB15 or worse
Rationale: Houston defense strong at home. Mariota forced to pass to generate more offense.
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis, TE
Matchup: Jacksonville (In London)
Year To Date Positional Rank: 3rd
Projection: TE13 or worse
Rationale: Doyle has been great this year, but Jacksonville only allows 4.9 fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Trips across the Atlantic Ocean are always hard to handicap.
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay, TE
Matchup: Home vs. Denver
Year To Date Positional Rank: 9th
Projection: TE15 or worse
Rationale: Denver’s linebacker T.J. Ward great in pass protection against tight ends, Brandon Myers presence also detracts.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense
Matchup: Away at Pittsburgh
Year To Date Positional Rank: 2nd
Projection: DEF13 or worse
Rationale: Steelers offense at home is lethal. Le’Veon Bell returns. Stash Chiefs D this week.
