After dismantling the Houston Texans in Week three behind a great performance from Legarrette Blount, the New England Patriots enter Week four as one of the five remaining 3-0 teams. They have looked impressive so far without Tom Brady, but this week may be different against Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills.
Despite Ryan’s 4-11 record versus Bill Belichick, the past five match-ups between the two head coaches have each been decided by eight points or less. With the Bills coming off an unlikely win over the same Arizona Cardinals team New England defeated in Week one, this game should be another competitive divisional test for an under-manned Patriots squad. Below are the Patriots Week four keys to victory.
New England Patriots Week Four Keys to Victory
Win the Running Game on Both Sides of the Ball
Without Brady, the Patriots have had to rely on running the ball to keep things simple for their young quarterbacks. Shockingly, the Patriots lead the league in rushing yards per game. They have used multiple running backs in different sets this year, but the workhorse has undoubtedly been Blount. He has 20+ touches and at least one touchdown in each game so far this year.
New England will need another big game from Blount, and it’s almost guaranteed he’ll get another 20+ touches this week. Buffalo’s defense has given up 98 rushing yards per game this season, which puts them in the middle of the pack. The Patriots will need to take advantage of the Bill’s average run defense in order to neutralize Buffalo’s pass rush. With 10 sacks through three games, the Bills are tied for third in the league in that category.
On the other side of things, New England’s defense has only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season and ranks 11th in run defense overall. This will be put to the test, however, when LeSean McCoy lines up in the Bills backfield. McCoy torched the Cardinals this past Sunday and the Bills rank 9th overall in rushing because of it.
For both coaches, successfully establishing the run game early on will be a key factor in determining in who wins this week.
Win the Turnover Battle
This is the area of the game where something has to give. The Bills have a +5 turnover ratio so far this season, while the Patriots have a +4 turnover ratio. If New England’s running backs can hold onto the ball, then they may have a chance of winning the turnover battle. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett have yet to throw an interception this season, and the Bills secondary has been less than impressive despite picking off Carson Palmer four times.
The Patriots secondary, however, stood tall against the Texans last Thursday and shut down DeAndre Hopkins.
Don’t Let the Bills Extend Drives
The Bills are last in the league in third down conversion rates. The Patriots will hope to keep it that way, but could struggle to do so. So far, Buffalo has converted 28% of their third downs, but the Patriots haven’t been the greatest at getting opposing offenses off the field. New England has allowed their opponents to convert on 46% of their third down attempts.
Getting Buffalo’s offense off the field will be very important for the Patriots. If New England can hold the Bills to their typical conversion rate this week, then expect a potentially lopsided score at the end of the game. If the Bills are able to extend drives and fully utilize LeSean McCoy, then the score could be much more competitive.
Last Word
This is New England’s last game before Tom Brady returns, and the team is very excited about going 3-0 in his absence. Getting to 4-0 in a home game against a divisional rival would be tremendous, even though the Patriots typically have success against the Bills.
An important factor this week is who starts at quarterback for New England on Sunday. With both quarterbacks seemingly healthy enough to play, it will ultimately come down to who Belichick thinks will give the team the best chance to win.
Expect a good game from New England’s defense, which seems to have figured things out and will face a Bills offense that ranks last in pass yards per game. The biggest issues the Patriots will face this week will be LeSean McCoy and the Bills offensive line.
The Patriots have struggled to sack opposing quarterbacks and the Bills haven’t given up many sacks. Look for a similar pattern on Sunday. New England will have to focus on stopping the run before they focus on getting to Tyrod Taylor.
Overall, New England looks like the clear favorite. With the depth of talent the team has on both sides of the ball and the extra time to prepare for Rex Ryan’s Bills, Belichick and the Patriots should have the upper hand come Sunday.
Prediction: New England 27 – Buffalo 19
Main Photo
