With the dust settled on the 2025 football season, it is accountability time here at Last Word. We plant our flag pre-season on which teams will exceed or fall short of Vegas’ expectations. Upon the review of the Big 12 winners, it started pretty ugly. The teams were listed in alphabetical order, and Last Word shout-out to a 0-5 start. But things turned around down the stretch. So which team did we undersell the most? Which Big 12 team were we correctly bullish on? And were we able to finish with a winning record against the Big 12 win totals from the 2025 season?
2025 Big 12 Win Totals Review
Worst Pick
Last Word had a good selection of nominees for the worst selection of the Big 12 win totals. We swung and missed on both Arizona schools. However, the best of the worst title goes to our pre-season outlook for BYU. The take looked like this:
“The Cougars have plenty of talent returning from the most nationally underrated team in 2024. However, the late transfer of quarterback Jake Retzlaff to Tulane left a significant void with little preparation. They will be starting a true freshman quarterback, and that is going to result in plenty of growing pains in Provo.”
BYU’s total was set at 6.5. Not only did BYU clear this in the minimum number of weeks starting the season 8-0, but the Cougars made a Big 12 championship appearance. Head coach Kalani Sitake, who was heavily courted by Penn State, has won 21 regular-season games in the last two seasons as a Big 12 member. Do not count on Last Word to undervalue the Cougars going into the 2026 season.
Best Pick
But enough about how badly that take aged. Let’s shift to the parts where we hit the nail on the head. Houston is a strong nominee for Last Word’s best Big 12 win total take. However, when we correctly identified the season Texas Tech was about to embark on, the Big 12 champs get the nod.
“It is time. The off-season crown belongs in Lubbock, but they don’t display trophies for that. Everyone from the coaching staff, boosters, and athletic directors has said it is Big 12 title game or bust. While a season-ending injury to running back Quinten Joyner stings, the high level of talent along both lines of scrimmage will carry this team to at least a 10-win season.”
With a 10-win season viewed as the floor, Joey McGuire delivered the greatest season in program history. The 2025 Red Raider defense is the greatest unit in school history, as it led the country in yards per play allowed (3.94), takeaways (32), pressures (16.6 average per game), and rush defense (68.1 yards per game). It also boasted two consensus All-Americans in David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez. While the ending of the season against the Ducks was a deflating way to close a historic season, Last Word was the first on the Texas Tech bandwagon before 2025 kicked off.
Overall Record for 2025 Big 12 Win Totals
Last Word mentioned how badly the review started. But we can say the totality of the Big 12 win totals work was a success. The 2025 record finished with a winning clip of 9-7. Some of the misses included giving Kansas State and Iowa State the benefit of the doubt. Additionally, Baylor’s end of the 2024 season set up for a successful 2025 season, and the Last Word bought into it. However, Baylor never came close to clearing its 7.5-win total.
Last Word correctly identifies the backslide for Colorado. Additionally, the first year starts for UCF and West Virginia in their second edition, with old coaches going exactly as expected. Finally, the last of our successes came from correctly identifying that TCU and Utah would be winning plenty of football games in 2025. It will be interesting to see how Vegas views the Big 12 for the 2026 season, given the changing landscape for many of the teams in the conference.
Main Photo: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
