The first of two MAC vs. Power 4 bowl matchups, this year’s Boca Raton Bowl has all kinds of fun narratives heading into Tuesday’s matchup. To start, Toledo lost head coach Jason Candle to UCONN, so interim head coach Robert Weiner will step up for this one. Louisville’s Jeff Brohm was a popular name in the coaching carousel, but he’s sticking with the Cardinals.
Let’s dive in!
2025 Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo Takes On Louisville
The Rockets head into this one 8-4 and 6-2 in the MAC. They started off the year with a 24-16 loss at Kentucky, a game in which plenty of fans picked Toledo to upset the lowly Wildcats. Toledo won two more out-of-conference matchups, then fell to Washington State later on. In conference, the Rockets were bested by MAC Champion Western Michigan and choked away the Battle of I-75 in a thriller to Bowling Green; it had a 21-0 lead over Bowling Green with 1:29 until halftime. Overall, it wasn’t the best season for the Rockets…but they hit eight wins for the fourth consecutive season.
This is Toledo’s third Boca Raton Bowl, and it has won the first two.
Louisville also enters this one 8-4 and 4-4 in the ACC. The Cardinals swept the non-conference slate of CFP-bound James Madison, Bowling Green, Eastern Kentucky, and rival Kentucky. The crowning achievement of Louisville’s season (aside from the 40-0 throttling of Kentucky), is its upset of CFP-bound Miami (FL). Yes, Louisville is one of the five teams with multiple wins over CFP teams (and one of two not in the CFP).
This is Louisville’s first Boca Raton Bowl, but it’s the ninth time the Cardinals are facing Toledo. Louisville owns a 5-3 record all-time, including a win in the most recent meeting…in 1981!
Tracking Opt Outs And Transfers
As of right now, according to 247Sports, Louisville has four players in the transfer portal. Those in the portal have not contributed much to the Cardinals this year. There are two opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft, however: defensive end Wesley Bailey and defensive tackle Rene Konga.
Louisville has been decimated by injury, as well. Chris Bell tore his ACL, and the running back room
As for Toledo, it’s a remarkably kept-together bunch considering the departure of its coach. Even then, as of now, three Rockets are not with the program, according to The Toledo Blade’s Dave Briggs: defensive end Malachi Davis, linebacker Chris D’Appolonia, and safety Braden Awls. Briggs noted that the team is “locked in” on the Boca Raton Bowl and any changes will have to wait until after.
Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason will be unavailable due to injury as well.
When Toledo Has The Ball
Gleason led the MAC with 21 passing touchdowns, so Kalieb Osborne will have to step up and fill that role. He was primarily used as a run-first option this year off the bench, even when he relieved Gleason in the season-ending win over Central Michigan. On the year, he’s run the ball 33 times for 205 yards and two scores. Through the air, he heads into this one 15-of-24 for 260 yards and two scores. The good news is the Rockets’ leading receiver, Junior Vandeross III, should be good to go. He led the MAC with 75 catches and 11 touchdowns, and was fourth with 947 yards.
On the ground, sixth-year senior Deamonte “Chip” Trayanum has been a godsend for the offense. The former Arizona State/Ohio State/Kentucky running back put up career numbers with 950 yards and 11 touchdowns on 166 carries.
Toledo’s offense enters the Boca Raton Bowl with a total offense ranked 31st, scoring offense ranked 38th, rushing offense ranked 44th, and passing offense ranked 53rd.
The Rockets will have to contend with a stout defense. Up front, Clev Lubin will be a force with his 11 tackles for loss and seven sacks on the year. This could be a big game for linebacker TJ Quinn. He led the way with 87 tackles. On the back end, if the Rockets have Osborne throw the ball, Louisville has done a great job at turning the ball over. In 12 games, the Cardinals have hauled in 14 interceptions, while forcing and recovering five fumbles.
The Cardinals come into this one with the 16th-best total defense, 22nd-best rushing defense, 26th-best passing defense, and 35th-best scoring defense.
When Louisville Has The Ball
This Louisville offense has been hurt. Against Kentucky, the Cardinals started a redshirt freshman wide receiver at running back, Shaun Boykins. He and true freshman Braxton Jennings both ran the ball at least 20 times and amassed over 100 yards. While they’re competent at running the ball, Miller Moss has been solid this year at quarterback. The USC transfer has thrown for 2,526 yards and 14 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his top receiver, Bell, will be unavailable.
Sixth-year senior Caullin Lacy will likely get one last crack at being the team’s WR1. Two years ago, he posted 1,316 yards and seven touchdowns for South Alabama. This year, he’s amassed 547 yards and two touchdowns.
Louisville’s scoring offense is ranked 45th, its rushing offense is 65th, its passing offense is 67th, and its total offense is 71st.
Defensively, the Rockets are led by safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and linebacker K’Von Sherman. McNeil-Warren, a potential first or second-round draft pick, could have opted out of this one, but he wanted to play once more with his brothers. Sherman led the way with 14 tackles for loss and four-and-a-half sacks. How Toledo replaces Awls will be something to watch. The Toledo-born (well, Sylvania-born, but for folks outside of the Toledo area, let’s say Toledo-born) safety led the MAC with five interceptions this year. Dylan Hohler will have his opportunity to make an impression.
Toledo enters the Boca Raton Bowl with an impressive defense overall. It boasts the third-best total defense, fourth-best scoring defense, eighth-best passing defense, and eighth-best rushing defense. Of course, the defensive coordinator who coached up this defense, Vince Kehres, is headed to Syracuse.
Last Word on the Boca Raton Bowl
Heading into this game, the MAC is a commanding 1-0 in bowls, thanks to its champion thrashing the CUSA champion in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. This is an interesting matchup, all things considered. Toledo could have been picked apart by the transfer portal, but, for the most part, it has stuck together. That could change in the coming weeks, of course, but the players may be buying into the new coaching staff (just as this author is).
Louisville should, on paper, be favored. It took down Miami (FL) and James Madison, so Toledo shouldn’t be much of an obstacle. However, those injuries stack up.
This could be a low-scoring game. Both of these defenses are solid. Of course, Toledo’s defense wasn’t tested quite as much as Louisville’s, so we will see.
Of course, Toledo took down Pitt last year in an insane six-overtime GameAboveSports Bowl, so it has tasted ACC blood
Bottom Line on the Boca Raton Bowl
Where: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida.
History: Louisville leads all-time series, 5-3
Last Matchup: Louisville won, 31-6 in 1981
Last Toledo win: 13-7 in 1958
Date and Time: December 23, 2:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch: ESPN
Spread: Louisville -6.5; O/U 44.5 (via FanDuel)
