LSU Looks to Derail Oklahoma’s Playoff Run

LSU is all set to finish its tumultuous regular season in Norman, Oklahoma, against the eighth-ranked Sooners. The two teams are on opposite ends of the SEC standings with one game left. Consequently, it’s easy to forget that LSU was considered more of a playoff contender than Oklahoma coming into the season.

The 9-2 Sooners would get a home game in the first round if the playoffs started today. SEC Championship or not, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which they would win on Saturday and miss the playoffs. Brent Venables has gone from the hot seat to a virtual playoff lock.

Playoffs aren’t on the table for the Tigers, but pride is. LSU is about to play its fourth game since parting ways with Brian Kelly, and results have varied both on and off the field. Even with all of the chaos that’s ensued in Baton Rouge, all is not lost. An LSU win would give the Tigers an 8-4 record in a down year so bad it could get its coach fired. Although not ideal, it’s not how most programs would describe a worst-case scenario season.

This matchup is not ideal for the struggling LSU offense. The Oklahoma defense has been almost singlehandedly winning conference games lately. What’s even worse for LSU is that the Sooner run defense is the best in the SEC. The LSU offense desperately needs balance to take pressure off Michael Van Buren as he continues to acclimate to the starting quarterback role. Unfortunately for the Tigers, nothing points to this being the game to get the run game going.

That doesn’t mean they won’t try. Run game coordinator and newly minted play caller Alex Atkins must be creative in doing so. Designed quarterback runs, misdirection, and receivers in the backfield are all in play. Regardless of LSU’s success on the ground, Van Buren must be more consistent as a passer. Oklahoma’s defense won’t give up much easily. Consequently, it’s critical for Van Buren to make the short to intermediate throws and keep the offense on schedule. Otherwise, the Sooner pass rush will have its way against an injured LSU offensive line.

Despite its success in the win column, Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either. The Sooners’ last three opponents outgained them in total yardage. We’ll give credit to OU for somehow getting wins in all three of these games, especially when Alabama outgained them by almost 200 yards. But the fact remains that Oklahoma has won recently despite its offense, not because of it.

LSU hasn’t been able to hang its hat on much in 2025, but the defense has been a bright spot. Besides the Texas A&M debacle, LSU’s defense has consistently kept games within reach for the Tigers. Oklahoma has dangerous playmakers, but has struggled to run the ball. OU ranks 11th in the SEC in rushing offense, and more passes plays into LSU’s strength. Oklahoma’s starting quarterback, John Mateer, has cooled off from a hot start since a midseason injury. He now has seven interceptions to go with his 10 touchdowns. Both defenses appear to have the upper hand in this game, so a blowout is unlikely.

Points have come at a premium for LSU all year, but the offensive output last week was a low point. The Tigers actually had more success on the ground against an SEC team, Arkansas, than they did against Western Kentucky. Unfortunately for LSU, this isn’t the ideal opponent to face while attempting to rectify offensive issues.

Oklahoma has the third-best total defense in the SEC while playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Sooners have won the turnover battle in each of their last three games, all of which ended in wins. Playoff positioning is on the line, and Oklahoma is at home. There are too many factors working against LSU in this one to predict an upset on the road. But we expect a tightly contested battle in which Mateer makes just enough off-schedule plays to lead the Sooners to a win.