Perhaps the best part of the 12-team College Football Playoff is likely the next thing that could be changed. As it stands, the Group of 5 gets one automatic bid for the highest-ranked champion. Technically, every team in the American Conference, Mid-American Conference, Conference USA, and Mountain West Conference has an opportunity to crash the party. When the Pac-12 expands to eight in 2026, it’ll be included in the Group of 6, essentially. There are some Group of 5 teams with easier paths to the CFP. 25th-ranked Boise State has the inside track, but Tulane, UNLV, Toledo, James Madison, Memphis, Liberty, Navy, Army, and Louisiana all start the season by receiving votes.
Last year, Boise State shocked the world by not only making the CFP, but it earned a first-round bye as the third-highest-ranked conference champion. This year, the Broncos have a winnable schedule and can make another run. However, of that group of Group of 5 teams with a little hype, Toledo might have the clearest path to the CFP.
The MAC has been one of, if not the worst, conferences in college football for a while. In the BCS and CFP eras, the conference has appeared in just two major bowl games, and it lost both. Naturally, it hasn’t been anywhere near the CFP. That could change.
The Path to the CFP for Toledo is Clear
Toledo, historically, has been one of the best in the conference. Recently, the Rockets have been among the most consistent programs in all of college football. Since 2010, Toledo has posted 15 consecutive non-losing seasons (it went 6-6 in 2019). Jason Candle has been the head coach since the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl, taking over for Matt Campbell after he left for Iowa State.
In that time, the Rockets have a 73-40 record with eight bowl appearances (three wins) and two MAC Championships. The next win by Candle will set a new program record for wins by a head coach.
Step 1: Make an Early Statement
The Toledo schedule shapes up nicely for a run. Right off the bat, the Rockets travel to Lexington to take on Kentucky. While the Wildcats are not among the SEC’s elite programs, winning on the road at a power conference is impressive. Just last year, the Rockets went down to Starkville and dominated Mississippi State, 41-17. Even then, last year’s team wasn’t as strong, and it lost five games.
Toledo has only faced Kentucky once before, in 2019. Getting off to a strong start with the aid of former Kentucky running back Chip Trayanum would do wonders for generating a little hype.
In Week 2, Western Kentucky visits the Glass Bowl for “The Biggest Party in Toledo.” Last year, the Hilltoppers won the first-ever matchup between the two, 26-21. WKU has to replace a lot from last year, so Toledo can get the better of the Hilltoppers. While WKU isn’t going to be one of the better Group of 5 teams, avenging a loss from last year would be another great win.
The other non-conference matchup against an FBS foe is in Week 9 against Washington State. Toledo has never faced off against Wazzu, so its trip to Pullman will be the prime opportunity to continue making a statement.
Step 2: Don’t Trip
Toledo is the favorite to take the MAC once again. Even then, Buffalo, the reigning champion Bobcats, and Miami (OH), led by former Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn, have compelling cases. Under Candle, Toledo has run the MAC table just once, in 2023. Only once more did it finish with fewer than two losses (2017). In most years, Toledo had the most talent and could have been considered the better team on paper.
This year, the Rockets have to face just one of the top four projected teams. That November 12 trip to Miami could decide a trip to Detroit. The other matchup that will be circled will be the game at Bowling Green. The Battle of I-75 is the most important regular-season game for Toledo each year. For a while, the Rockets owned the rivalry, winning 11 of 12 from 2010 through 2021. Over the last three seasons, Bowling Green has won two of three, and it took a last-minute miracle in 2023 for the Rockets to salvage a win.
A MAC schedule of Western Michigan, Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Miami (OH), Ball State, and Central Michigan is winnable. Akron, Ball State, Kent State, and Akron are expected to be among the worst in college football. Bowling Green is a wild card with its roster turnover and new coach. Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are expected to be middle-of-the-pack teams in the MAC, ideally no match for Toledo. Miami will be a challenge.
One loss in the MAC is not the end of the world for conference championship aspirations. For the CFP, however, the margin might be razor-thin.
Step 3: Pray for Chaos
Making the CFP as a team from the MAC is more difficult than it is for most of the other conferences. The belief that the MAC is the worst conference is not an easy one to shake. Even a perfect 13-0 season with a win at Kentucky and Washington State will not be enough to get past a 12-1 Boise State. Even if the Broncos lose to Notre Dame, returning as the lone Group of 5 team in the CFP from last year does wonders for goodwill.
If Boise State trips and the champion from the American ends up with 12 wins, it could get the nod. Toledo has to win and win convincingly.
When the conversation is splitting hairs between a handful of teams about which most of America doesn’t think twice, how you look matters. It took one Group of 5 team to get a first-round bye for the system to change. Imagine what happens if a blueblood is left at home in favor of a two or three-loss, unranked mid-major.
Toledo has to make sure there is no doubt. Thanks to the fact that seven AP Poll voters included the Rockets, there is a foundation to build upon. It all starts on August 30 in Lexington.
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