The SEC Championship Game is taking place this Saturday at the vaunted Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game features a rematch between two powerhouses from earlier in the season. The 2nd-ranked Texas Longhorns will face off against the only team that has handed them a loss this season in the 5th-ranked Georgia Bulldogs.
Both teams are likely to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome, but there is still a first-round bye and an easier path to a national title at stake. For Texas, there’s also the added motivation that comes with avenging their only loss of the season. With so much on the line, let’s dive into what to expect from both teams as they gear up for the SEC Championship Game.
Two Different Paths
Both Texas and Georgia have found themselves right where they, and just about everybody else, expected them to come championship weekend. In the annual preseason poll conducted at SEC Media Days, the Bulldogs and Longhorns were the favorite matchup. While both squads ended up where they expected to be, they both took very different paths to get there.
Georgia entered the season in the midst of one of the most dominant stretches in college football history. Kirby Smart’s team had as many losses in the past three seasons as national titles coming in. This along with th return of Heisman favorite Carson Beck signaled to many that the dominance was here to stay.
As the season began to roll though, it became clear to everybody that this wasn’t the same Georgia team or Carson Beck we’ve become accustomed to. Beck regressed massively early on, and the defense took a massive step back along with him. Meanwhile, the Longhorns started their season off with six straight dominant wins and appeared to be everything we assumed Georgia would be.
This all led to a primetime matchup in which a one-loss Georgia rolled into Austin for a meeting against the then-top-ranked Longhorns on the road. Many assumed that we would see the Longhorns roll against a clearly faltering Georgia squad. This wasn’t meant to be, however, as the Dawgs rolled despite Beck throwing three interceptions.
Coming out of the contest, Georgia appeared to have reasserted their status as the cream of the crop in the conference. This sentiment would be short-lived, however, as the Dawgs continued to struggle while Texas regrouped. A second loss to Ole Miss appeared to eliminate the Dawgs from conference contention entirely.
Several key upsets down the stretch allowed them to backdoor their way into Atlanta in the end. Meanwhile, Texas continued their dominance down the stretch to set up a rematch against the only team to beat them. This leads us to where we are now with a conference title on the line. With the paths that both teams took getting here covered let’s dive into what needs to happen for both to secure a win.
Can the Longhorns’ Offense Roll?
Texas ranks top 15 in the nation in just about every offensive metric you can name. This fact is reflected in the results of their games. Well, all of the games except for one that is. In their first meeting, the Dawgs held a previously unstoppable Longhorns offense in check. Texas recorded season lows in scoring, and total yards, and forced a season-high four turnovers.
It was clear that Texas had no answer whatsoever for the Georgia defense, who on a dime snapped back into the dominant form we’ve come to expect in recent years. The Dawgs played so well that it didn’t matter Beck had his worst game of the season.
Simply put, the Dawgs had Steve Sarkisian’s number the first time around. Now, some may look at the results of that game and say that it was a fluke. There may be some merit to this sentiment. After all that same Georgia defense allowed Georgia Tech to put up 42 points and 563 yards of offense on them just last week.
The thing about Georgia though, and this is something we’ll get into further down, is that you never know which team is going to show up. You could get the version we saw against Tennessee where they dominated in every facet of the game. Or you could get the version we saw against Ole Miss which was the exact opposite.
The point here is that Texas can’t simply rely on the assumption that what happened in round one was a mere fluke. They have to come out and establish their offense early, and force Georgia on the back foot. They can’t afford to give away possessions or make careless mistakes. If they want to win, they need the offense to roll.
Can Beck Come Through?
For Georgia, everything will likely come down to which version of Carson Beck decides to show up. Much like Georgia as a whole, Beck’s performance has varied drastically from week to week. Some days, like this past Saturday against Georgia Tech, he looks every bit the part of a Heisman contender. Others, like the first game against Texas, he looks utterly lost.
Much like the Longhorns can’t afford to assume that Georgia’s defense simply won’t play to the level they did last time, the Dawgs can’t afford to have Beck play poorly. Luckily for Georgia, the past several weeks have seen the embattled quarterback string together several of his best performances.
In the three games since the Ole Miss debacle, Beck is completing 65% of his passes. He has also thrown for 941 yards, 11 touchdowns, and most importantly zero interceptions. It’s possible we’ll see Beck peak at exactly the right moment. The rest of the team will need to play their part as well in order to have a shot though.
“Everybody needs to do their job beyond just receivers and catching balls,” Smart said when asked about what the team can do to support their quarterback. “You help the quarterback with a better run game. It might be read by our backs, and our backs running the ball better. It might be seeing the holes and reading things better.”
While the run game is certain to be an important factor in taking the pressure off Beck, pass protection will be the biggest key. The Longhorns have arguably the best pass rush in the country, and Georgia has struggled at times in pass protection. If Georgia wants to secure their third SEC title in the Smart era, then everybody has to play their part.
Final Thoughts
As simplistic as it may sound, the winner of this game is likely to be decided by which offense can move the ball more effectively. For Texas, that means avoiding costly turnovers and sacks which cost them in the last matchup. For Georgia, that largely falls on Carson Beck playing to the level he has the past several weeks.
Overall, it’s very hard to make a firm prediction on how this matchup unfolds. It could be a close hard hard-fought last-second nail bitter, or it could end up being a blowout. That’s the beauty of these matchups though. It’s best versus best, and the winner gets the inside track to a national title.
