This year’s college football season is flying by. We’re already at the halfway point of the regular season. But while that may be news that brings you down, the good news is that the slate doesn’t drop off at all. This weekend’s schedule is almost objectively the best weekend schedule we’ve had to this point in the season. And one of the best games of the weekend is Ole Miss vs LSU.
It’s a huge game for both programs for plenty of reasons. First, the two programs despise each other. Second, the loser’s College Football Playoff chances are going to take a huge hit. For the winner, those chances improve exponentially.
So can Ole Miss walk into one of the toughest places in the country to play, and leave with a huge win? Or does LSU hold steady at home, and find themselves back on the national stage this season?
Ole Miss vs LSU: A Series History
The LSU Tigers are Ole Miss’ most played opponent, apart from Mississippi State. Since 1894, the two schools have played each other 112 times. In those meetings, the Tigers lead the overall series 65-43-4. However, since Lane Kiffin arrived in Oxford, the series is split 2-2. In that time, the home team has won every matchup.
In last year’s matchup in Oxford, we were all given front-row seats to a classic. Albeit one where defense was less than optional. It was nonexistent. Ole Miss managed to sneak away with a 55-49 victory, in a game that had 1,343 total yards of offense.
Is this year’s edition of the Magnolia Bowl going to look similar to last year, or are we going to get more of a defensive slugfest this time around?
Where’s the Edge for LSU?
For the Tigers, things haven’t gone quite as planned this year. Over the offseason, there was hope the defense had become much improved. Currently, that doesn’t seem to be the case. They’ve still struggled through nearly every facet of the game. Against a good Ole Miss offense, that’s less than ideal.
However, on the offensive end, they’re still solid. Even if that doesn’t include the household names they’ve had in years past. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is a guy that’s going to play on Sundays. This year, he’s completing 70% of his passes, and throwing for 330 yards per game. Against a Rebel defense whose weakness is the secondary, this could lead to a big day from Nussmeier. He likely won’t beat you with his legs the way previous Tiger quarterbacks could, but there’s no doubt he can beat you with his arm.
Then, there’s the atmosphere. With it being a late kickoff, that gives LSU fans all day to get ready. Death Valley is already one of the most hostile environments in the country. When you then give those fans all day to pregame, it becomes downright unfair. Expect the Tiger faithful to play a huge role in this one.
Ole Miss Injuries a Problem?
For the Rebels, the key has to be the offense. However, dealing with numerous injuries, including to star receiver Tre Harris, doesn’t make things easier. Harris currently leads the nation in receiving yards but left last week’s game with a lower leg injury. He’s now listed as questionable for Saturday. If he can’t go, the rest of the Rebel receivers are going to have to step up in a major way.
Then there’s the running backs. Starter Henry Parrish Jr. has been banged up at multiple points this season, as well. And backup Matt Jones is currently listed as doubtful. So where does Kiffin lean in the rushing game? Is it transfer Rashad Amos, or does last year’s backup, Ulysses Bentley finally see meaningful carries?
Whatever ends up coming from these injuries, the Rebels are going to have to find production from guys who may not have seen all that many snaps so far to start the season.
Do the Rebels Have an Edge?
The offense, even with the injuries, should be able to take advantage of a struggling LSU defense. This is the biggest advantage Ole Miss will have all night. On that end, expect them to put up plenty of points, as quarterback Jaxson Dart is going to have a chance at a big night.
The Rebel defense is likely to be the bigger question. Can the secondary hold up against a solidified pocket passer? Can the defensive line get pressure on Nussmeier and rush things timing-wise? If they can, there’s a good chance Ole Miss gets out of Baton Rouge with a victory. If they can’t, the Tigers are going to be able to control the time of possession and keep the ball out of Dart’s hands.
Another question is discipline. In a hostile environment, discipline becomes its own category. On both ends of the ball, everyone is going to have to stay disciplined and block out the noise. Can the offense get plays in with no disruption? Can the defense stay on assignment and avoid coverage busts? What about penalties? Ole Miss has had penalty problems all year. Can they avoid those problems this weekend?
Obviously, that’s all easier said than done. Especially when there’s 100,000 people screaming at you.
Ole Miss vs LSU: Bottom Line and Prediction
From a talent standpoint, Ole Miss likely has the edge. However, they’re dealing with plenty of injury concerns. And the crowd noise could become a difference-maker. All of that should give plenty of opportunities and chances for LSU to flip the script in this one.
In the end, expect the Rebel defense to step up and make a play or two down the stretch. Both offenses put up good numbers and plenty of points. But the Ole Miss pass rush proves to be the ultimate difference maker, forcing a late mistake from Nussmeier, leading to a huge road win that also keeps their playoff chances alive.
Ole Miss 41, LSU 37
