Ohio State at Oregon highlights the second top-four matchup of the college football season. The Buckeyes’ toughness and grit are going to be challenged. In a moment that continues to live in infamy, Ryan Day yelled into a camera, “I wonder where Lou Holz is right now” after his Buckeyes narrowly defeated Notre Dame in the game of the Ohio State season. Holz challenged Day and his team’s perceived lack of toughness leading up to that matchup with the Fighting Irish. Considering Day’s Ohio State career to that point had been marred by back-to-back losses to Michigan where his teams were out-physicalled, among other things, it made sense for the two-time National Champion coach to call out.
Now, Day and his squad have the opportunity to get back to where they believe they belong with a win at Oregon. This marks the first of two potential top-five matchups on the Ohio State schedule (at Penn State on November 2). That is assuming the Buckeyes take care of business in Autzen Stadium.
Ohio State at Oregon: Buckeyes Must Set the Tone
Ground and Pound
To this point, Oregon has faced four FBS programs. Two of those teams, UCLA and Michigan State, were held to 47 and 59 yards on the ground, respectively. Those two programs have the third-worst and 27th-worst rushing attacks in the nation. Meanwhile, against the second-best and sixth-best rushing attacks in Boise State and Oregon State, the Ducks surrendered 221 and 131 yards, respectively.
Ohio State comes into this game with the 15th-best rushing attack. Of course, considering Ohio State has been in five blowouts, the offense was routinely watered down in the fourth quarter, humbling those stats.
Either way, Ohio State at Oregon will be decided off the backs of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Ideally for the Buckeyes, they replicate what Heisman Trophy front-runner Ashton Jeanty was able to do. The Broncos fed Jeanty 25 times and he went for 192 yards and scored three times.
This year’s rushing attack from Ohio State has been words better than anything it attempted last year. Through five games in 2023, Ohio State ran for a total of 658 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year, Ohio State has run for 1,111 yards and 16 touchdowns. Judkins and Henderson have contributed 805 yards and nine touchdowns.
Jeanty is an incredible running back and was able to gash the Oregon defense for four big plays including a 70-yard touchdown. His success was predicated on the Boise State offensive line manhandling the Ducks defensive line.
It does not take a massive cognitive leap to say that the arguably best offensive line of the Day era should be better than Boise State’s. If the offensive line can get that same push and give Judkins and Henderson running lanes, they have the ability to get chunk plays as well. Henderson is averaging eight yards per carry and Judkins is averaging 7.8. It’s that kind of home-run-hitting talent that the Buckeyes will have to lean on.
Protect 18
Doubling down on the offensive line, the passing game of Ohio State at Oregon will have to be efficient. While it would be nice if Chip Kelly just had to run the ball, it’s not realistic to expect.
This year, Will Howard has been almost perfect to start games. Against Akron, each of his first four passes was incomplete. However, over the last four games, Howard started 10-for-10 against Western Michigan, 11-for-12 against Marshall, 12-for-13 against Michigan State, and a perfect 10-for-10 against Iowa.
Oregon’s pass defense is significantly better than anything Howard has faced as a Buckeye. The Ducks have allowed 162 yards per game thus far. At the same time, Ohio State’s passing offense is significantly better than anything the Ducks have faced. Ohio State is 23rd in the country with 288 yards per game. The best passing offense to face Oregon to this point was Boise State’s 63rd-ranked offense. For reference, Michigan State is 70th, UCLA is 95th, and Oregon State is 125th out of 134.
Oregon has recorded 17 sacks through five games, led by Jordan Burch. The South Carolina transfer is in the midst of a breakout with three-and-a-half sacks and four-and-a-half tackles for loss in his last two games.
Howard, on the other hand, has been sacked three times. Something has to give.
Josh Simmons has made incredible strides as the left tackle. Donovan Jackson was out for the first two weeks but has come back and regained his All-American form. Seth McLaughlin has been the best center to suit up for the Buckeyes in a long time. Those snap issues evidently have not followed him from Tuscaloosa to Columbus. The weakness is certainly on the right side with Tegra Tshabola/Austin Siereveld splitting time at right guard and Josh Fryar at right tackle.
If there is a weakness on this offense, it’s Fryar. He struggled against Marshall’s Mike Green. He will have his hands full with Matayo Uiagalelei.
If the offensive line can keep Howard upright long enough to find Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, they will be fine.
Keep Everything in Front
Remember that 2021 matchup where Oregon’s CJ Verdell ran for what felt like 500 yards all on outside runs? Hot take: don’t let Jordan James do that.
James has run for 552 yards and five scores off 88 carries thus far. However, Ohio State’s run defense is third-best in the nation. Jim Knowles’ defense is going to work to take away the run game and force Dillon Gabriel to beat them through the air.
Considering Gabriel is sitting at fourth in career passing yards and third in touchdowns in the history of the game, he can sling it with the best of them. However, just like with Bo Nix last year, Oregon’s offense is very YAC-focused. That is neither a good nor a bad thing, Ohio State’s passing offense is similar in that regard.
The biggest key for Ohio State at Oregon on defense is to limit those YAC yards. Tez Johnson was one of the best YAC receivers in the nation last year and has picked up where he left off. Gabriel leads the nation with a 77.6 completion percentage, just as Nix led with 77.4 percent a year ago. The Oregon offense is full of quick, high-percentage throws. Ohio State’s pass rush is likely going to be all but neutralized so they will have more opportunities to get their hands up and wreak havoc that way. Jaylahn Tuimoloau was able to take over the 2022 Penn State game in that way, perhaps he can be trusted to do the same this weekend.
Gabriel will likely end this game with an impressive completion percentage. It will be up to the Buckeyes’ NFL-bound defensive backs to be as sure-tackling as can be. One missed tackle when selling out could be the difference.
The Best The Buckeyes Have Faced
Much has been made about the low-quality schedule for Ohio State to start the 2024 season. The criticisms are fair, albeit short-sighted considering the last few seasons of non-conference foes and the future slate. Nonetheless, Oregon poses a much bigger threat than Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, and Iowa combined.
The Buckeyes own a 9-1 advantage over their waterfowl foes. That impressive record did not help Ohio State in 2021 when the Ducks marched into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes despite being outgained 612-to-505. Ohio State had three 100-yard receivers for the first and only time in program history.
None of that matters this week. Two of college football’s best will decide who has the inside track to the Big Ten’s automatic bid for the College Football Playoff. There is a non-zero chance this is round one of two or three.
A win does not coronate Ohio State or Oregon. A loss does not derail the season.
Ohio State at Oregon. This is Big Ten football!
Imagine saying that 20 years ago.
