Suddenly a must-win for both programs, this is a pivotal point in the season. Coming off a bye, the Gators will be well rested to take on their instate opponent. Already having one loss to the Miami Hurricanes, the Gators are desperate to prove they aren’t the worst in the state. UCF now comes into this matchup fresh off a brutal wake-up call. Losing by 27 at home to Colorado, the Knights were 12.5-point favorites in that matchup. Allowing over 400 yards of total offense, they showed that they are certainly a beatable opponent. For Florida, head coach Billy Napier will be coaching for his job. With this game in the Swamp, anything less than a victory could leave Napier unemployed. Not only for bragging rights in the state, the Gators also need this win if they want any chance at a bowl game.
Stopping the Run
The run defense has been a struggle for the Florida Gators to start the season. Now going up against a run-first offense, UCF could present some problems. Running back RJ Harvey enters this matchup with over 500 rushing yards and eight touchdowns through 4 games. Averaging over 100 yards per game, the Gators will have to be physical up front. With quarterback KJ Jefferson also a threat to take off, the Gators defense could be stretched thin. The defensive line will have to hold their own and push back the UCF front if they want to be successful. Too often getting bulldozed for chunk runs, UCF lives and dies by the run. It is imperative that the Gators stack the box from the start. Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks will have to have a big game on the interior, erasing any run lanes for the dynamic Knights.
Let the Offense Loose
In their last game against Mississippi State, Napier finally opened his play book. Spreading out the offense, he showed some creativity, getting the ball to his playmakers in space. Not simply trying to run the ball all day, the offense showed signs of life. Quarterback Graham Mertz, now moving forward as the starter, had his best game of the season. With 10 different players logging in a reception, the Gators showed some versatility. Now taking on the UCF Knights, the Gators got a good read on them last weekend. With Colorado going into Orlando and stomping the Knights, the Gators are now able to key in on how to beat their instate foe. Not as stout a defense as once thought the Gators offense could have a big day. Even with injuries at key positions, the Gators showed last weekend that they are deep at the skill position level.
Rise of the Young Players
Due to injuries along both sides of the ball, the Gators were forced to play some of their younger players. Having plenty of success against Miss State, we could see them even more involved now. On offense, quarterbacks Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway spread the ball around to different playmakers. Unheralded receivers Marcus Burke and Aidan Mizell had a big day, combining for over 80 yards and a touchdown. With number one receiver Tre Wilson recovering from a minor knee surgery, the young receivers will have to step up. Scheming ways to get them the football, Napier has shown that he trusts them to get the job done. At running back, the Gators saw four different players get involved, showcasing their depth at the position. Defensively speaking, players like safety Bryce Thornton showed their coaches that some changes may be near.
Revenge on the Mind
Florida fans are all too familiar with UCF quarterback KJ Jefferson. Facing him last season while he was at Arkansas, the Gators’ defense was embarrassed. Allowing Jefferson to throw for over 250 and run for 92 yards, the Gators defense gave up 39 points. Arkansas had entered that matchup with a 2-6 record, unable to get going offensively. However, they were able to do whatever they wanted against a surprisingly porous defense. Not only that but the last time the Gators faced their instate opponent, they were dominated in a bowl game loss. Looking for revenge now on two fronts, this game means something different to the Florida Gators. Still as dynamic as ever, the Gators cannot allow Jefferson any free space to run the ball or extend the play. Keeping him contained will be their key point as if he gets free, we could see a repeat affair.
Final Thoughts
UCF started their season fast, running their way to a 3-0 record, including a win over TCU. However, last weekend the Knights were flat out embarrassed by an upstart Colorado team. Were they simply looking ahead to this matchup, or were they exposed for all their flaws? Fans will soon figure out what kind of team this Knights squad is. With a crucial in-state matchup against the Gators, all bets are off. This game will define the season for both squads, as a loss will leave either team reeling. From Florida’s perspective, they must continue the creativity that they showed against Miss State. For this matchup, neither defense has been very impressive to start the year. It will come down to which offense makes a mistake first. Due to this game being played in the Swamp, I am inclined to lean the Gators way, in what should be a shootout.
Prediction: Florida 38 UCF 27
