UCF plays its first conference game of the season in game number three. The Knights travel to Fort Worth, Texas to play the TCU Horned Frogs. The game will take place on Saturday, September 14th at 7:30 pm ET at Amon G Carter Stadium. The game will be on primetime television on Fox. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Opening the Conference Slate
As the first official Big 12 conference game of the season, UCF and TCU get the royal treatment by playing in primetime on Fox and against multiple unimpressive non-conference games. With Georgia at Kentucky on ABC being the best other game on at that time, this allows the Knights and Horned Frogs to garner a larger share of the television audience. It also helps that both schools have opened their respective seasons 2-0.
UCF’s 2023 Big 12 season was full of missed opportunities. The Knights blew a 29-point lead at home against Baylor, failed to hold on to the lead at Oklahoma, missed on a game-tying two-point conversion, and kicking woes cost them the game in Lubbock against Texas Tech. The Knights still managed to win three conference games and were the only one of the freshman four to qualify for a bowl game. The slate is now clean for 2024 and outside of Cincinnati and West Virginia, UCF will be playing all new conference opponents.
Who are the TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is a school UCF has modeled itself after, rising from the realm of the non-BCS AQ schools and up to the power conferences. The schools were nearly members of the Big East together. In 2010, the Big East announced it was expanding from eight to 10 football-playing schools. TCU was invited to become the ninth school with UCF rumored to be in play to be the 10th. What followed was a calamity of errors that ultimately led to the conference falling apart. Shortly before UCF received its invitation to the Big East in 2011, TCU backed out and joined the Big 12. A dozen years later, they’re now conference mates.
In 2022, TCU surprised everyone by getting to the CFP National Championship Game. This was after the Horned Frogs went through a bowl-game dry spell from 2019-2021. Unfortunately, TCU fell back to earth in 2023 with another season with no bowl.
Comparing the Offenses
Similar to 2023, UCF’s offensive strength comes from the running game. RJ Harvey continues to run at a torrid pace, carrying the ball 30 times for 268 yards and six touchdowns. His just under nine yards per carry average is top among UCF’s four horsemen running backs. Myles Montgomery, Johnny Richardson, and Peny Boone all currently average at least six-and-a-half yards per carry. While the first three have seen more action against the opposing first-string defense, Boone saw more action against Sam Houston’s second-stringers. Both Montgomery and Boone have carried the ball 17 times so far.
After a rough first game, UCF’s passing game behind KJ Jefferson bounced back against Sam Houston. He’s up to 333 yards with two touchdowns and an interception on 19/29 passing. His favorite target is unsurprisingly Kobe Hudson, who leads the team with seven receptions for 165 yards. No other receiver has more than 55 yards or five catches. Both games were at home against weaker competition, so we will see how well that momentum carries on the road against a conference foe.
TCU and UCF are polar opposites offensively. While the Knights like to focus on the run, the Horned Frogs concentrate on the pass. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has started red hot, going 48/67 for 620 yards and four touchdowns. His 71.6% completion rate currently leads the Big 12. Last year, he split time with Chandler Morris, who has since transferred to North Texas. The team has three players with at least eight receptions each with two of them among the team leaders.
Leading the way is Savion Williams, who led the team in receiving yards last year and currently leads 2024 in receptions with 16 and yards with 154 yards and a touchdown. John Paul Richardson is also back. He was second in receptions and yards last year. This year, he’s tied for second with eight receptions and is third in yards with 132. To round out the trio is Jack Bech, who also has eight receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown. UCF’s defensive backfield will be busy keeping these three in check. TCU’s running game isn’t very strong. Cam Cook is the primary runner, tallying 139 yards and four touchdowns on 33 carries.
This will be the first time UCF and TCU will meet on the football field.
UCF Knights vs TCU Predictions
After two games against inferior competition, UCF sees more of an equal in TCU. Despite the game being in Fort Worth, the Knights are slight two-point favorites. This will be a battle of opposing offensive philosophies. TCU struggled to put away Stanford despite outgaining the Cardinal by 171 yards. The key will be UCF striking early and keeping the game close to continue using the running game. The Knights’ running game will wear down TCU’s defense while the Horned Frogs’ reliance on the pass will allow the Knights’ defensive line to stay in attack mode. UCF 31-27.
