Week eight of the college football season brings another opportunity for Scott Satterfield’s Cincinnati Bearcats. Satteffield’s first season at the helm in Cincinnati has not gone to plan thus far as the Bearcats sit at 2-4. There were always going to be some growing pains with this program shift in leadership and transition into the Big 12, but it’s still been difficult for the team and its fans. There’s a grand opportunity for Cincinnati to get its first conference win on Saturday with Dave Aranda‘s Baylor Bears visiting Nippert Stadium.
Bearcats vs Bears
Baylor’s Season So Far
When taking a look at how Baylor has faired in the 2023 season to this point, it’s actually a bit similar to the way Cincinnati’s season has unfolded. Losses to a group of five teams and multi-score losses to top Big 12 contenders Texas and Oklahoma. Each team has an early season FCS victory. The Bears enter this match-up at the same 2-4 record Cincinnati owns, but it does have a conference win. It was the highlight of the season so far for Baylor as it overcame a 35-7 deficit in the last quarter and a half of the game to beat UCF 36-35 on the road.
Conference wins are still gold for both of these programs who both sit at the bottom of the standings. If either team hopes to play in the postseason this year and make a bowl game, they’ll have to finish at least 4-2 in their last six. Saturday’s matchup is a huge one for both programs. Here are some things Baylor brings to the table and how Cincinnati can snap a four-game losing streak and get one up on the win column.
The Baylor Passing Attack
The Bears are the 111th-ranked scoring offense in the country with just 20 points per game. They’re led by Junior quarterback and first-year starter Blake Shapen. Shapen got injured late in week one’s loss against Texas St. and missed the next two games. He’s been back and healthy since week five. On the season, he has 920 yards, and four touchdowns while completing 62% of passes. Shapen has yet to throw an interception this year in three games played. The Bears are clearly at their best when he’s healthy and on the field.
His most reliable weapons include number 80 Monaray Baldwin who has 17 grabs for 404 yards and two scores this year. Baldwin is quickly approaching his total numbers from a season ago. Ketron Jackson and Hal Presley are two more receivers with 15 or more catches and over 220 yards. Baylor only has five passing touchdowns on the year, two went to Baldwin and the other three went to tight end Drake Dabney.
Baylor will look to throw it against Cincinnati this weekend. It comes in at 12th in the country in pass attempts per game and 15th in passing yards per game. However, they do find themselves ranked 100th in completion percentage.
The Run Game
Baylor is very much a by-committee backfield as two guys have almost 50 carries or more and over 200 yards. Richard Reese and Dominic Richardson both will get their touches on Saturday. Freshman Dawson Pendergrass is not far behind these two as he has 37 carries for 176 yards and a couple of scores. This isn’t a lethal rushing attack, as Baylor is 118th in the country with just 92 yards per game. The weakness of Baylor is the clear strength of the Cincinnati defense. Shapen might throw it 40+ times on Saturday.
Baylor Defense
To go with the 111th-ranked scoring offense, Baylor has the 112th-ranked scoring defense that allows 35 points a game. It gives up 431 yards per game (108th ranked), 193 on the ground (113th ranked), and 238 through the air (64th ranked). That is a lot of numbers, but the Bears clearly aren’t getting it done. There’s a prime opportunity for the Cincinnati offense to get on track against this Baylor defense.
The defense is led by veteran linebacker, number two, Matt Jones. He’s been around the program for several years and has 41 tackles and two sacks on the year. Freshman cornerback, number 19, Caden Jenkins has two of the team’s four interceptions to add to 15 tackles. Baylor has 12 sacks on the year, no individual has more than two.
Keys to the Game
Get After Shapen
Baylor ranks 119th in the nation with 3.6 sacks allowed per game. Cincy’s defensive coordinator, Bryan Brown, is known for an aggressive style but it hasn’t been overly effective this year. Linebacker Daniel Grzesiak got home last week for the first time in several games and registered two sacks. He, Eric Phillips, and Dontay Corleone will have to make life difficult for Shapen when he drops back. With the Baylor rushing game being non-explosive, these guys shouldn’t have much trouble keeping that true. If the front four can cause chaos in the backfield it really could halt the whole Baylor offense. These guys can also really aid the back half of the Cincinnati defense but will be tested mightily after a shaky performance a week ago.
Churn the Run Game
It seems like every week establishing the run is a key to the game. But this remains true for all Satterfield-coached teams. The numbers speak for themselves, Cincinnati is a top 20 rushing offense in many metrics and Baylor is a bottom 20 rushing defense in the same stats. It’s yet to be seen if Ryan Montgomery will be ready to go for the Cats in this one but Myles Montgomery has been a nice reserve to Cory Kiner in Ryan’s absence. Kiner should carry the load again and could have a big day.
Another Test for Jones, Henderson Could Help
Last week against Iowa St., wide receiver Xzavier Henderson didn’t record a catch. There were some poor attempts and throws to him when he was open several times. He’s emerged as the best and most reliable target for a struggling Emory Jones. Not involving Henderson was a large reason why Jones only had 93 yards a week ago. A good way to get Jones on track a little bit is to do a better job of finding Henderson. It seems like all of his targets are deep downfield, the whole offense could benefit from him getting some quick shots and underneath chances. Jones needs to be better in this one. If he continues to play the way he has, a conversation will need to be had about the position.
Recap
Baylor travels to Cincinnati for the first-ever match-up between the two programs. With both teams sitting at 2-4, if there are any chances at a bowl game they both really need this one. Cincinnati comes in as 3.5-point favorites at home and looks to finally break the losing streak and get the monkey off its back in Big 12 play.
