What Are the Expectations?
The temperament of a fanbase will vary based on the performance of a team compared to the expectations of that team. The average Indiana fan would be ecstatic with a 10-win season, whereas “only” 10 wins is a failure for an Alabama fan. Now that we’re at the halfway point of the 2023 regular season, it’s a good time to evaluate LSU’s expectations vs. reality.
One way to adequately gauge what the expectations should be is to examine the results at other programs with similar resources. Kirby Smart went 13-2 in his second year at Georgia, but Jimbo Fisher went 8-5 in his second year at Texas A&M. Nick Saban went 12-2 in his second season as head coach at Alabama. Dabo Swinney struggled to a 6-7 record in his second season at Clemson. Considering the wide range of results from coaches with similar pay, it would be fair to expect a two or three-loss season from LSU this year.
Returning talent and a top-five preseason ranking likely raised the expectations for LSU. The ranking itself is positive publicity for the brand and recruiting, but it adds pressure as well as a bigger target for the opposition. Some expected LSU to win the SEC West. Now that we’ve discussed anticipated wins and losses, let’s closely consider both sides of the ball.
Offensive Expectations vs. Reality
Most fans and analysts alike expected LSU to be better offensively in 2023 than in 2022. The Tigers returned their entire offensive line, a wealth of receiving talent, and even added talent at the running back position.
Tiger fans hoped that Jayden Daniels would be more decisive and more aggressive passing the ball down the field. Some even thought he could be the best quarterback in the SEC.
In reality, Daniels has ascended from solid to phenomenal. In fact, LSU is third in the country in total offense, and Daniels has more total yards than any other FBS player. Daniels’ statistics are so impressive that his toughness can be overlooked at times. His lack of regard for his body is startling at times, but it reinforces that no moment or obstacle intimidates him.
Thanks in part to Daniels, Malik Nabers is second in the country in receiving yards. Brian Thomas is first in receiving touchdowns. As the season progresses, it grows more apparent that this LSU offense is in rare company and should be appreciated.
Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs has established himself as the bell cow running back in a room with eight scholarship players. Diggs has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last two games. He’s displayed decisiveness, acceleration, wiggle, and vision. There’s no wasted motion with east-west movement in Diggs’ running style. Although his production has been vital, it’s just as important that he does not lose yards.
LSU has exceeded expectations offensively by any measure one could devise. Many expected improvement, but none expected to witness the second-best offensive season in the history of LSU football.
Defensive Expectations vs. Reality
The general consensus coming into the season was that LSU would field one of the better front sevens in the conference, featuring a dominant defensive line. To be fair, there were concerns about the secondary. However, LSU’s success with transfer cornerbacks in 2022 likely fostered the belief that the group would be good enough to avoid being considered a major liability.
The Tiger defense has been inconceivably bad. Opponents have pushed around the heralded defensive line. The decision/experiment of moving Harold Perkins to inside linebacker failed. In a stroke of bad luck, All–Conference linebacker Omar Speights has been unavailable due to injury. As it turned out, the LSU staff shouldn’t have been concerned about their secondary. They should have been panicking. Every opponent besides Mississippi State has had its best offensive outputs against LSU. The ultimate condemnation of the LSU defense is that the Tigers are reduced to celebrating holding an offense to three points. LSU’s defense has not met expectations this year.
Overall
With two losses in September, one would have to say LSU has not met expectations to this point. Sure, the Tigers had a disappointing month, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have a season that is successful. The LSU coaching staff should be encouraged by the progress on both sides of the ball. As teams develop into better versions of themselves over the course of a season, that progress on a young team will likely continue to trend in the same direction. The chances of LSU running the table to the SEC Championship aren’t great. The same could be said for the 2022 Tigers, so it’s not impossible.
The offense is a proven commodity at this point. If Daniels’ body holds up, it’s unlikely that any team will completely stop him. Defensively, the freshmen and transfers have helped the unit to improve, but it needs more. Oregon transfer Bradyn Swinson continues to flash off the edge, and true freshman Dashawn Womack is earning enough trust to get more snaps at defensive end. Whit Weeks has been productive at inside linebacker. True freshman Ryan Yaites has increased his role at safety.
The 2023 season is at a mid-life crisis. Similar to life outside sports, the outlook can actually be better with the right mentality. Look forward. Embrace challenges. Grow. There’s no time to look back; there’s a lot left to play for.
