Cincinnati fans have been pretty spoiled over the last several years. With a trip to the College Football Playoffs and consistent top 25 teams over the past few years, they’d like to get used to it. With so much change from the top down in this Cincinnati program, it’s clearly projected by Vegas in their season-long win totals that the Bearcats will experience some regression this season.
LWOS’s very own Big 12 correspondent, Andrew McCleary, wrote an article a few weeks ago detailing all of the win totals along with his prediction for the entire conference for the 2023 season. He makes some interesting points and some that Bearcat fans might appreciate in his article that can be found here.
The consensus line across all sportsbooks for the total number of Cincinnati wins is 5.5. I’m sure that sounds low, and maybe disrespectful, to Bearcat fans. The last time the team came in under the five-win mark was back in 2017 for Luke Fickell’s first season when they went 4-8, missing out on a bowl game. That season was followed by a massive turnaround to 11 wins in each of the next two seasons. UC has had at least nine wins every year since that four-win 2017 season. However, the Big 12 is a different beast. It’s a rarity to have several cupcake matchups in a Power 5 conference. The Cats will need to bring their A-game every week in order to eclipse this projected win total.
Schedule Overview
The Big 12 actually welcomes Cincinnati very nicely with the conference schedule they’ve been given. They won’t have to play four of the five top favorites to win the conference at all this season. According to DraftKings, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St, Texas Tech, and TCU are the five favorites in that order. The Bearcats will square off only with Oklahoma and that game will be played at home in Nippert Stadium on week four, September 23rd.
Non-Conference Opponents
That conference draw is obviously incredibly lucky for Cincinnati and the hope to exceed their win total. They’ll play all three of the other rookie teams in the Big 12 as well. Truly easing their way into the Power 5. The non-conference schedule is not too challenging for the team either. Home against Eastern Kentucky week 1, expect to see them as at least two touchdown favorites.
The hardest non-conference match-up will be week two, the Bearcats’ first challenge of the year when they travel to Pittsburg for a rematch of old Big East fierce foes. That game kicks off at 6:30 on the CW Network on September 9th. The first three games are rounded out when the Miami Redhawks come to Nippert for a nighttime version of the 127th Battle for the Victory Bell. The bell has remained in Cincinnati since 2006 with the Cats leading the all-time series just barely with a record of 60-59-7.
Conference Home Games
Week four will begin conference play when the Oklahoma Sooners come to Nippert for a match-up before they exit for the SEC. The next home games will be weeks six and seven. The first is against Iowa St, a team with a pretty similar outlook for the season according to Vegas odds. Followed by Baylor coming to town with their projected 7.5 win total and sixth-best odds to win the conference. These are all pretty important games for Cincinnati when it comes to outlook on the season win total.
The final two home games will be when UCF travels north, in what has developed into a quality rivalry over the time in the AAC spent together. This could be another fun one late in the season between two new members of the Power 5. The home finale could be a big one for Bearcat fans and betters. The recently rejuvenated Kansas Jayhawks travel to Cincinnati on November 25th. This could be a game both teams need to win in order to hit their season win totals and become bowl eligible.
Conference Away Games
As mentioned, traveling to Pittsburgh is the first road matchup. For conference games, the first road test will be going out to Provo, Utah to play the BYU Cougars in a difficult environment to play. A 10:15 p.m. ET kick-off will be a big test for this new-look Cincinnati team. It should be a game where the team and fans learn a lot about them. After two home games in a row, the next road trip is to Stillwater, Oklahoma against the Cowboys. They are projected to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12, could be a big game for the Bearcats to steal in order to hit the win total.
Games at Houston and at West Virginia back-to-back weeks 10 and 11 will be crucial. If they’re sitting at four wins at this point they’d have to take at least one of these games on the road. If they do split those, it’ll be do or die in the season finale against Kansas. Winning both would mean cash for the over betters before the season’s final game.
Forecast
Yes, there will be some difficulties for the Bearcats this year. Expect some natural growing pains from this new staff, many new faces, and after the leap into the Power 5. The likes of Emory Jones, Dontay Corleone, Deshawn Pace, and Corey Kiner should be the guys who could lead this team to surpass Vegas’s expectations.
Assuming at least a 2-1 record in the first three weeks, we can see wins against Iowa St and UCF at home. Oklahoma at home and at BYU could be tough, winning one would likely help them soar to six wins. Having Baylor at home helps and makes that game very winnable, even though they will likely be home underdogs. Winning one of the games at Houston and at WVU, the Cats won’t even need to be under the pressure of needing to win vs Kansas in week 12, although that can be a win as well.
If you’re looking to make a win-total Over bet on Cincinnati, this will save you some work on finding the best lines. As of right now, Caesars Sportsbook is offering o/u 5. Not even 5.5. You can get over 5 wins at -115 odds there. If you’re a plus sign chaser and confident they should get to at least 6 wins, DraftKings is offering over 5.5 at +140. That’s probably the best odds you’ll find on that.
Photo courtesy: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
