Hello everyone, and welcome to our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week 11. At the end of the day, there weren’t a whole lot of changes to our top 12. However, we came really close. After being held in check for most of the game, Fernando Mendoza led a Heisman-winning drive, pushing Indiana over Penn State 27-24. Staying in the Big Ten, we said last week that Oregon and Iowa would be a good one, and we were correct. A late field goal pushed the Ducks to an 18-16 win.
Switching the SEC, Texas A&M dispatched Missouri while Alabama took care of LSU. Those two appear on a collision course in Atlanta, but we all know anything is possible, especially in that league. On the other end of the spectrum, much like the Tate McRae hit, the ACC champion has become a “Revolving Door,” as we seemingly have a different team each week. Additionally, we have a new Group of Five squad, as Memphis lost to Tulane. Furthermore, San Diego State’s chances took a big hit after losing to Hawaii. Now, to why you’re here, let’s get to this week’s picks. As always, if you’d like to see how things changed from last week, click here. One last note, we are up to 59 bowl-eligible teams and 19 others with five wins. We aren’t including Delaware and Missouri State because they aren’t bowl eligible. However, if we don’t have enough teams, they could be.
A Mostly Status Quo Week
College Football Playoff First Round
Friday, December 19th – (12) North Texas at (5) Georgia
As we just mentioned, the Tigers lost to Tulane and dropped out of our top 12. In their place, we are inserting the Mean Green. They should be favored in their last three games. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs took care of Mississippi State and host Texas in the weekend’s biggest game.
Saturday, December 20th- (11) Georgia Tech at (6) Texas Tech
With both Louisville and Virginia losing on Saturday, we’re cycling back to the Yellow Jackets as our ACC Champion. The Red Raiders got the weekend’s best win, beating BYU in dominating fashion. They move up a couple of spots.
Saturday, December 20th- (10) BYU at (7) Ole Miss
Despite the loss to Texas Tech, we’re keeping the Cougars in the playoff. Their game at Cincinnati on November 22nd could be for the other Big 12 Championship berth. The Rebels had no trouble with The Citadel and host Florida on Saturday.
Saturday, December 20th- (9)- Notre Dame at (8) Oregon
The Fighting Irish rolled over Navy and moved up a couple of spots this week. As we mentioned earlier, the Ducks nearly lost at Iowa and dropped a couple of spots.
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Wednesday, December 31st- (5) Georgia vs. (4) Alabama
We finally flipped the Crimson Tide and Texas A&M this week. Besides, it wouldn’t be a playoff without these two meeting, right?
Capital One Orange Bowl: Thursday, January 1st- (6) Texas Tech vs. (3) Indiana
We’re setting up what should be an outstanding matchup between two schools that’ve never played.
Rose Bowl Game: Thursday, January 1st– (8) Oregon vs. (1) Ohio State
The Buckeyes took care of Purdue and remain our top seed. Unless they meet in the Big Ten title game, these two don’t play during the season.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Thursday, January 1st- (7) Ole Miss vs. (2) Texas A&M
Another battle of teams that don’t meet in the regular season unless it happens in the SEC title game.
Semi-Finals and Final
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Thursday, January 8th- (4) Alabama vs. (1) Ohio State
The Crimson Tide leads the all-time series 4-1.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Friday, January 9th- (3) Indiana vs. (2) Texas A&M
These two schools have never met on the gridiron.
College Football National Championship: Monday, January 19th- (3) Indiana vs. (1) Ohio State
We’re going with an all Big Ten final this week.
That’s your breakdown of the playoff for this week. Continuing with our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week 11, let’s move to the games around the New Year.
Filling The Void
Once again, this season, legacy Pac-12 teams can be slotted to games featuring that league. However, that will change next year when the conference starts fresh. As always, we’ll try not to pair them with teams they’ve already played.
In addition, with it being 2025, the SEC plays in the Mayo Bowl while the Big Ten goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. Furthermore, for the second time in three years, the Bahamas Bowl won’t be played there. No word yet on what a replacement game might be called.
One other thing to note, we’ve now got three fewer SEC bowl-eligible teams than bowls. However, we’re looking at you, Kentucky, a team that’s gone from its season being DOA to a possible bowl-eligible team. They still need two wins, but if it happens, the Liberty Bowl is the most likely scenario.
Games Around The New Year
Music City Bowl: December 30th- Big Ten vs. SEC- Nebraska vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl: December 30th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- Houston vs. USC+
The Trojans go to San Antonio as a legacy Pac-12 member.
Radience Technologies Independence Bowl: December 30th- Big 12 vs. Conference USA- Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Tennessee vs. Iowa
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- California vs. Washington State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: December 31st- Big Ten vs. SEC- Michigan vs. Texas
As we mentioned earlier the Longhorns and Georgia meet in a huge one on Saturday.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- Big Ten vs. Pac-12- Illinois vs. Arizona State *
The Sun Devils go as a legacy Pac-12 team.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: January 2nd- Big 12 vs. American/Conference USA/Sun Belt- Army vs. New Mexico
Autozone Liberty Bowl: January 2nd- Big 12 vs. SEC- TCU vs. SMU*
With no SEC team available, we are sending the Mustangs to Memphis.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: January 2nd- ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC- Vanderbilt vs. Pittsburgh
Holiday Bowl: January 2nd- ACC vs. Pac-12- Virginia vs. Utah+
To quote the 70’s rock band Molly Hatchet, the Cavaliers have been “Flirtin’ With Disaster” for weeks. It finally caught up to them as Wake Forest knocked them off in Charlottesville. The Utes go as a legacy Pac-12 school. This will be the first time this game has ever been played in January.
Moving on with our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week 11, let’s look at the games right after the big holiday.
Post-Christmas Games
Game Above Sports Bowl: December 26th- Big Ten vs. MAC- Northwestern vs. Buffalo
Rate Bowl- December 26th: Big Ten vs. Big 12- Minnesota vs. Baylor
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: December 26th- AAC/ACC/Big 12- Arizona vs. Utah State
Go Bowling Military Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Navy vs. Wake Forest
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Duke vs. Rutgers
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- North Carolina State vs. Temple
Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- Miami (Florida) vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dog Arizona Bowl: December 27th- MAC vs. Mountain West- Western Michigan vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: December 27th- Mountain West vs. American/Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Boise State vs. Arkansas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC- Louisville vs. Oklahoma
Kinder’s Texas Bowl: December 27th- Big 12 vs. SEC- Missouri vs. Iowa State
JLab Birmingham Bowl: December 29th- American/ACC/SEC- Troy vs. East Carolina
Moving on with our 2025 Bowl Projections After Week 11, let’s move to the season’s initial games.
First Weekend Games
Cricket Celebration Bowl- December 13th- MEAC vs. SWAC- Delaware State vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk: December 13th- Mountain West vs. Pac-12- San Diego State vs. Washington+ Despite their loss to Hawaii, the Aztecs are still our projected Mountain West Champion. On the other side of the ball, the Huskies go to LA as a legacy Pac-12 squad.
IS4S Salute To Veterans Bowl: December 16th- Mid-American vs. Sun Belt- Central Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl: December 17th- Conference USA/Mid-American/Sun Belt- Toledo vs. Appalachian State
StaffDNA Cure Bowl: December 17th- American/Conference USA/Sun Belt- South Florida vs. UCONN
Myrtle Beach Bowl: December 19th- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Marshall vs. Jacksonville State
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: December 19th- American/ACC/Notre Dame/SEC- Memphis vs. Clemson- After dropping from our picks last week the Tigers (Clemson version) are back in.
Bowls Right Before Christmas
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: December 22nd- Mountain West vs. MAC- UNLV vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl: December 23rd- American/Conference USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt- James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech The Dukes are another team to watch down the stretch. Should one or more of the American teams falter, then they could grab the Group of Five bid.
New Orleans Bowl: December 23rd- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt– Western Kentucky vs. Southern Mississippi
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: December 23rd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/MWC/SBC- Texas San-Antonio vs. Old Dominion
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: December 24th- American vs. Mountain West- Tulane vs. Hawaii
To Be Announced Bowl Game-
Former Bahamas Bowl: Conference USA vs. MAC – Liberty vs. Miami (Ohio). We don’t know the title or where the game will be played, but we have a matchup.
What We’re Watching-
In addition to Texas and Georgia, we are closely monitoring several more games. Those include Pittsburgh hosting Notre Dame, Oklahoma at Alabama, and Iowa at USC. The results of those games could cause some changes next week. Thanks for checking out our Bowl Projections After Week 11 here at Last Word On College Football.
Main Photo: Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
