The road to the Big 12 championship has been the wildest this conference has seen in quite some time. So it is only natural that the teams picked to finish sixth and dead last in the conference are playing for a shot at a conference title and a playoff ticket. Iowa State has reached 10 wins for the first time in the Cyclone’s 133-year history and is looking to win its first conference championship since 1912. Meanwhile, Arizona State has performed one of the best turnarounds in college football after winning a combined six games in the previous two seasons. So who is Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark going to be handing the trophy to in Arlington on Saturday afternoon?
Big 12 Championship: Sun Devils and Cyclones Touchdown In Arlington
Worst To First?
Kenny Dillingham will be in the running for national coach of the year. He has really infused a different level of enthusiasm and life back into this program after it was gutted under Herm Edwards. This team is led by running back Cameron Skattebo. He has been the foundation of the Sun Devils offensive success. In 2024, he has amassed 1,398 rushing yards, 19 total touchdowns (two receiving), and 468 receiving yards. Even more impressive is he has done that in just 11 games. However, this offense isn’t just a one-man show.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt has played well enough to garner 1st-team all-conference consideration. He has thrown for 2,444 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just five interceptions in 11 games. Leavitt has also made timely completions when the offense has needed them the most. However, Leavitt will be down a significant receiver on Saturday. Arizona State star receiver Jordyn Tyson left last week’s win over Arizona in a sling and will not play in the Big 12 championship. Tyson leads the team with 1,101 receiving yards, with the next closest being Skattebo’s total. It will be up to Xavier Guillory and Chamon Metayer to step up for Leavitt in the passing game.
Defensively, Arizona State has been an above-average unit. They rank 27th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 115.5 yards per game. The passing defense was a modest 69th, allowing 219.8 yards per game. However, where this defense is most dangerous is in the turnover department. Arizona State boasts a turnover margin of plus-11, good for 11th-best among all FBS teams.
Is It Finally Campbell’s Year To Finish The Job?
Matt Campbell’s teams have always been know for their defense first. In the best regular season in program history, the story is no different. The Cyclones ranks first in the Big 12 and ranks 18th nationally in points per game, allowing just 19.6. The passing defense has been one of the best in the nation, yielding only 156.9 yards per game (third nationally). They have held a nation’s best four opponents to under 100 yards passing.
Just like Arizona State, the Cyclones also do an excellent job creating turnovers. The Cyclone defense has a +9 turnover margin, which is in the top 20 nationally. However, the Cyclones’ Achilles’ heel is their run defense, ranked 96th in the FBS with 173.7 yards allowed per game. In one of their only two losses, Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks was able to take advantage of this rushing for 122 yards on 25 carries and one touchdown. They will need to be better against Skattebo on Saturday if they hope to bring a Big 12 championship back to Ames.
But the offense for Iowa State has been more than productive in 2024. Their offense is headlined by their ariel attack led by quarterback Rocco Becht. The redshirt sophomore has thrown for 3,021 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Unlike Arizona State’s passing attack which has been operating primarily through one receiver, Iowa State has two formidable receivers on the outside. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are the first duo in Iowa State history and the only pair nationally with 1,000
yards each this season. In eight of 12 games this season, the duo has combined for at least 10 catches, 175
yards and a touchdown.
Big 12 Championship Prediction
As has been the case with many Big 12 games this season, Saturday’s matchup marks the first time the Sun Devils and Cyclones will face each other. Neither team holds an advantage over the other that makes them a clear-cut favorite in the Big 12 championship. In fact, the strengths of both of these offenses attack the weak link in the opposing defense. Even if one team were to get some fortunate turnover luck and jump to a 14-0 early lead, this game would be far from over. Both of these teams have been resilient all season, and there is no reason to expect anything less in the biggest game of the season.
One team is going to cap off their historical season with a ticket into the college football playoff. The deciding factor is one team has Skattebo and the other team does not. Even against a tough defense keying in on him, Skattebo will make game-changing plays throughout. It will also include one key first-down run in the fourth quarter that drains the clock and gives Arizona State the victory.
Arizona State 24, Iowa State 21
