Getting You Set: Washington vs. Eastern Michigan, Prediction

Last week will be the worst game they’ve played, according to Jedd Fisch and his players. Improvement week over week is the focus of Washington, and this week Eastern Michigan heads to Seattle. Both programs began the season with a win. But this time for the Huskies, it will be a new test. Eastern’s spread offense is built to stretch the field, and they pose a threat on the defensive front that will test the evolving Husky offensive line.

The Opponent

Head coach Chris Creighton is in his 11th season as the head coach in Ypsilanti, Michigan. His 192 career wins rank sixth among active head coaches in the FBS, and he’s the seventh-longest tenured head coach at his current school. The program that Eastern Michigan has built is one of a blue-collar mentality. They call their home stadium “The Factory,” and they break down a cinder block wall before taking the field at home. Creighton has instilled this mentality in his program over the past 11 seasons, and it has helped them become one of the consistent MAC programs year in and year out.

Eastern Michigan’s One-Man Advantage

On defense, Eastern Michigan will always have one more “core” defensive player than the personnel shown on offense. For example, in their game against UMass, the Eagles used four down linemen and three linebackers every time the Minutemen showed 11 personnel. Seven defenders in the box are one more than the five linemen and one tight end that 11 personnel brings. 

As such, the Eagles rely on pressure up front to generate success from their defense. It starts with the interior defensive linemen Peyton Price, Tyrell Martin, and Dylan Shelton. The three combined for 108 snaps last Saturday and got a consistent push on the inside of the line. At zero technique, Price registered 1.5 sacks last week and five tackles. Martin and Shelton had a half tackle for loss each and were consistently hitting their assignments up front.

This interior push is crucial, because it shrinks the pocket for the opposing quarterback, forcing him to move. That’s where Eastern’s EDGE rushers come into play. Justin Jefferson had a very solid game against UMass, tallying two sacks and repeatedly causing disruption in the backfield. The pieces continue to work together because, with an assignment-sound front, the linebackers have lanes to make tackles. James Djonkam led the team with 13 tackles in week one and earned 1.5 sacks on the day. As a team, Eastern tallied six sacks and nine tackles for loss against UMass. 

Versatility in Passing Attack

The Eastern Michigan offense will run a version of the spread attack with wide splits from the wide receivers. In an attempt to spread the field laterally, the outside receivers will line up just a few yards from the sideline. This pulls the cornerbacks away from the formation creating more room over the middle of the field. With this room over the middle, Eastern can then do a few different things. One of which is to attack it with mesh concept routes. The crossing routes can stress defenders in man or confuse zone coverage assignments. 

But the offense will also show bunch sets, and similarly use them to create confusion on defense. Against UMass last week, they showed a bunched trips set and ran them over the middle of the field in a mesh concept with an opposite receiver crossing. But instead of passing over the middle, they used it to disguise the running back coming out of the backfield on a wheel route. Eastern threw for 241 yards last week with an average of 14 yards per completion and 8.5 yards per attempt. It was an efficient day because of the ways they schemed players open.

Matchups to Watch

While Washington is on defense, the way the secondary responds to Eastern Michigan’s passing concepts is something to watch. Washington runs a base nickel and will have the personnel to cover pass catchers. But it will be tested for the first time of the year with an offense designed to spread them out and force in-play decision-making over the middle. Wide receiver Oran Singleton caught eight passes for 89 yards and a score last week. “That number two guy, he’s everywhere,” Fisch said in Thursday’s presser referring to Singleton. “He’s certainly one that we have to be prepared for.”

Singleton is their slot player and will be getting matched up frequently with Jordan Shaw of Washington. Shaw has the height advantage at 6’-1” compared to Singleton at 5’-7”. But for Shaw, it will be a test in playing disciplined coverage with all the ways the Eagles like to scheme their speedy slot receiver open. 

On the other side of the ball, Washington’s offensive line is going to get its first major test of the season. Price lines up at nose tackle, and will be a head-on matchup for the experienced D’Angalo Titialii at center. But the Huskies are going to be blocking at capacity on Saturday because of the numbers advantage Eastern will show on every snap.

Washington’s Opportunity

Based on the personnel that Eastern Michigan figures to show up front, Washington should have matchup advantages in the passing game. Adding an extra core defender to the front will leave the back end of the defense with less room for error against Washington’s pass-catchers. Last week we saw Denzel Boston haul in six catches while Giles Jackson had 10 on his own. The running backs had five catches out of the backfield for nearly 60 yards. But one player we didn’t see reach the stats column was Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter

Last week, Washington allowed eight quarterback pressures against Weber State. Defensive line pressure feels like it’s going to continue into this week given the Eagles’ tendencies up front. But there’s a chance that this allows Washington to get Will Rogers III into his comfort zone. That being delivering quick throws and stretching the field laterally to his receivers, much like he did in the Air Raid in Starkville. 

Hunter is a player who thrives in mid-range receiving, especially over the middle as a big-frame target. Last year, 41 of his 92 targets were in the center of the field. He caught four of his seven touchdowns in the middle third and had a 90.7 receiving grade on passes over the middle. If defensive pressure comes, look for Hunter to find openings behind the linebackers in the middle of the field. This could also open up opportunities to find other receivers in the second level of the defense and open things up for Washington’s passing game. 

Prediction

Week two brings the next step in competition as a quality MAC program headed to town. Washington did a tremendous job a week ago slowing down the passing game, allowing just 98 yards and a 34% completion percentage. But Eastern Michigan’s spread attack mixed with their abilities to scheme players open is going to be the next step for the Washington defenders. 

The Husky offensive line will also be tested at a numbers disadvantage against the Eagles. But the opportunity that Eastern Michigan’s aggressive front seven presents for the SEC’s second all-time leading passer in Rogers could prove to be the difference on Saturday.

Washington – 37

Eastern Michigan – 14

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

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