Does it feel good to be back (this must be what Texas feels like)?!? Even with all of the upsets last week in the Big 12, the Moneyline saw a winning record of 9-5. We almost batted .500 against the spread, going 4-6. But we had a good beat on the totals in week three posting a 7-3 mark. The total finally climbed back into the green for the season with the great showing. The season now shifts to all times (with the exception of two) starting conference play this week. So with these week four winners out of the Big 12, it is time to make up some ground against the spread. All lines/totals are reflected in the most common number across multiple sports books.
Week Four Winners From the Big 12
Season Record ML: 31-11
Season Record ATS: 11-19
Season Record Totals: 16-14
#16 Oklahoma At Cincinnati (+14.5)
Alright, Oklahoma. Let’s see it for real now. SMU has been its biggest test to date, and the Ponies were within one score last in the first quarter. The Bearcats dropped a bad one to its in-state rivals for the first time since 2005. Sooner’s head coach Brent Venables needs to see this team pass its first test while flying Big 12 colors. But for as down as this Cincinnati team is, this team should have a rowdy home crowd supporting a team looking to make a statement in its first conference game. There will be plenty of points in this one, and that pesky hook is going to be the thing that keeps Oklahoma from covering the spread.
Moneyline: Oklahoma ATS: Cincinnati Total 57.5: Over
SMU At TCU (-6.5)
The Iron Skillet rivalry doesn’t get much attention outside the state of Texas. And maybe it is because TCU’s record against SMU is 18-4 since 1999. But just as SMU is set to join a Power Five conference next season, TCU publically stated that they will be pausing the rivalry “indefinitely” after the 2025 season. Cowards. As much as SMU would love to start raining on TCU’s parade, the Horned Frogs are getting better each week since dropping their opening game to Colorado. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes, who was just on the other side of the field two years ago, will know exactly how to attack SMU’s defense and retain the skillet for a second consecutive year.
Moneyline: TCU ATS: TCU Total 63.5: Over
BYU At Kansas (-8.5)
Last Word can guarantee that the team with blue in their school colors will win this matchup. All dad jokes aside, this has some sneaky potential to be a back-and-forth game. The Cougars haven’t seen a quarterback as dynamic as Jalon Daniels is. But BYU just demonstrated last week, on the road in SEC country, that they can move the ball themselves with quarterback journeyman Kedon Slovis. This game is going to get pushed aside for lots of big games this Saturday. However, Kansas will pull away in the fourth quarter of what should be a very entertaining affair.
Moneyline: Kansas ATS: Kansas Total 54.5: Over
Texas Tech (-6.5) At West Virginia
These two teams are looking to make a statement in week one of Big 12 play. The Red Raiders need to stop the running attack of the Mountaineers if they want to prevail. Texas Tech will make the winning plays down the stretch to get a tough-fought road victory.
Moneyline: Texas Tech ATS: Texas Tech Total 54.5: Over
Oklahoma State (+3.5) At Iowa State
This game is the first of the week four winners where the under is going to be the pick. Which is significant since the number is so low. It’s also an early-season anxiety bowl for both teams coming off losses to G5 opponents. Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy had some interesting comments about the type of player that goes to a school like South Alabama that only highlights how his stubbornness to evolve might be the end of his time in Stillwater. There is not a lot to like about the Pokes right now, but there is even less to like about Iowa State. Time for everyone to hold their nose and stomach this nasty medicine that will result in a slight upset by the Cowboys.
Moneyline: Oklahoma State ATS: Oklahoma State Total 36.5: Under
Sam Houston At Houston (-12.5)
There is another rock fight brewing in these week four winners. Dana Holgorsen’s Cougar squad has had a very interesting start to the season. They haven’t left the city of Houston yet, have lost two games, and have played three very different games. Meanwhile, Sam Houston is making its FBS debut and has played outstanding defense. They have limited both opponents to 14 points in each of their two games. The problem is that the offense has scored a COMBINED three points this season. Houston won’t make this pretty, but this game has 21-7 written all over it.
Moneyline: Houston ATS: Houston Total 38.5: Under
#3 Texas At Baylor (+14.5)
The Longhorns travel to take on a Bears team that has two paws trapped in bear traps. Quarterback Blake Shapen is still out for Baylor and could be without their starting running back as well. However, if the Bears can just keep it competitive in the first quarter, they could build on that momentum. They need a similar start as the Utah game; high energy and physicality. Texas now starts its “Super Bowl” tour with every Big 12 team wanting to get their final shots in before they depart to the SEC. Just like the other soon-to-be SEC school this week, that hook will prove to be the difference against the spread. Baylor plays inspired to keep it close, but Texas remains undefeated.
Moneyline: Texas ATS: Baylor Total 51.5: Under
UCF At Kansas State (-5.5)
This could get ugly for Gus Malzahn and his team making their Big 12 debut. The Knights are without quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and have to go to the Little Apple. The defending champs suffered their first loss of the season last week against Missouri on a 61-yard field goal. The Wildcats will look to make a statement in this one. Expect Chris Klieman to have his guys looking crips in what Last Word is dubbing its lock of the week four winners.
Moneyline: Kansas State ATS: Kansas State Total 52.5: Under