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Tailgate Pick ‘Em Week 11 College Football Predictions Including USC-Washington

Week 11 doesn’t feature the strongest slate of the college football season, but there are some key conference matchups, and the remaining undefeated and one loss teams are looking to stay alive in the College Football playoff race. Our panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are on hand to offer their predictions once again this week.

#16 West Virginia at Texas (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line: Texas by 2

15 October 2016: Longhorn RB D'Onta Foreman during 27 - 6 win over Iowa State at Darrell K. Royal - Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
15 October 2016: Longhorn RB D’Onta Foreman during 27 – 6 win over Iowa State at Darrell K. Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Steen: West Virginia has been strong all season, and carries just one loss in large part due to the fact they have a defense, something most Big 12 teams lack. The Longhorns have won two straight and look to be improving, but they have been inconsistent all season. Playing at home should help, and I expect a strong running game to carry the Longhorns through. Texas 30, West Virginia 21

Yesh: Texas is on fire right now and Charlie Strong is moving towards keeping his job. West Virginia has a talented defense but Texas has an aggressive defense that can keep this game close. I expect a good one that should come down to the final possession. Texas 24, West Virginia 21

John: To say this season has been up and down for Texas would be an understatement. After what looked like an upset win over Notre Dame in the season opener, the Longhorns would lose three of their next four. Third-year head coach Charlie Strong was firmly on the hot seat. But they’ve gone 3-1 since and knocked Baylor from the ranks of the unbeaten in that span. And Vegas has them installed as slight home favorites against 16th-ranked West Virginia.

Both teams are fairly even offensively. The Mountaineers average 510.8 yards per game while the Longhorns are only 5.4 yards behind that total. The two quarterbacks, WVU’s Skyler Howard and UT’s Shane Buechele, have nearly identical pass yard numbers. But Texas running back D’Onta Foreman could be the X-factor. He became the first Longhorn running back since Ricky Williams to rush for over 300 yards when he had 341 against Texas Tech last week.

As long as Buechele can avoid throwing the ball into Mountaineer defensive back Rasul Douglas’ hands while Foreman continues to show why he leads the Big 12 in rushing yards, the ‘Horns should be able to get bowl-eligible on Saturday. Texas 38, West Virginia 31

Mike: Texas has done what it’s done the entire Charlie Strong era: live on the edge. Texas disappointed after an early season victory against Notre Dame, but since has three of four and sits one win away from bowl eligibility. Every time the seat gets hot for Strong, his teams respond. The Mountaineers are the lowest ranked one-loss Power 5 team in the nation. Why? Because they play in the Big 12? Out of conference schedule? Eye test? Who knows. Look for Texas to lean heavily on D’onta Foreman and the rushing attack to control this game. Austin – and this year’s edition of Texas football – stays weird on Saturday. Texas 38, West Virginia 30

Tulsa at Navy (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line:  Navy by 1.5

TULSA, OK - NOVEMBER 21 : guard Defensive tackle Bernard Sarra #77 of the Navy Midshipmen tries to make his way through the Tulsa line during the third quarter of a NCAA football game at the Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium on November 21, 2015 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images)
TULSA, OK – NOVEMBER 21 : guard Defensive tackle Bernard Sarra #77 of the Navy Midshipmen tries to make his way through the Tulsa line during the third quarter of a NCAA football game at the Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium on November 21, 2015 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images)

Steen: Navy and their run option attack is tough to face, but Tulsa probably has better loses (Houston and Ohio State) compared to Navy carrying losses against Air Force and USF. Neither team has a great defense in a matchup that will decide one half of the AAC championship game. I’m going with Tulsa to outscore their opponents and get a big win. Tulsa 45, Navy 38

Yesh: Who would have thought that Tulsa/Navy could determine the AAC West? Both are talented teams that could be in play for a New Years 6 Bowl if Western Michigan and Boise State slip up. Tulsa is one yard away from potentially being undefeated against teams not named Ohio State. Navy was the first to beat Houston, but lost a shocker to Air Force the week before that. Tulsa 35, Navy 31

John: Saturday’s clash between the Golden Hurricane and Midshipmen in Annapolis has the potential to be one of the more exciting games of the weekend. This matchup could potentially determine who wins the AAC West Division. Both teams are also dark horses to get a New Year’s Six bowl berth should they run the table and get help from teams like Western Michigan and Boise State.

Navy’s always been known for their triple option offense that puts a premium on the run game, particularly at the quarterback position. But senior Will Worth has shown he can do more than just run the ball. On two occasions this season has he thrown for over 250 yards. His predecessor Keenan Reynolds achieved that feat just once his entire college career.

Tulsa and Navy are 84th and 85th nationally in total defense. Expect a shootout with the home-standing Middies prevailing. Navy 41, Tulsa 37

Mike: This will be the best game you won’t watch this weekend. Tulsa is an offensive juggernaut and probably the most balanced offense in the nation. The Hurricanes average 42 points per game on 511 yards (259 passing, 252 rushing) per game. Not to be outdone, Navy is the nation’s best triple option offense. The Midshipmen are coming off a big win against Notre Dame, but they’ve been susceptible to high octane offenses this season, losing to USF 52-45 and giving up 40 to Houston. Whoever wins the turnover battle wins this game. Tulsa 48, Navy 42

#9 Auburn at Georgia (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: Auburn by 10.5

OXFORD, MS - OCTOBER 29: Auburn Tigers defensive lineman Carl Lawson (55) at the line of scrimmage during the football game between Auburn and Ole Miss on October 29, 2016, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS. Auburn would defeat Ole Miss 40-29. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).
OXFORD, MS – OCTOBER 29: Auburn Tigers defensive lineman Carl Lawson (55) at the line of scrimmage during the football game between Auburn and Ole Miss on October 29, 2016, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS. Auburn would defeat Ole Miss 40-29. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

Steen: Georgia survived Kentucky last week but Auburn simply looks like the much better team in this matchup. The Tigers have been consistently able to score, unlike the Bulldogs and have three key SEC west wins that have setup the opportunity for the Iron Bowl to matter for more than pride at the end of the season. Look for Auburn to keep rolling in this one. Auburn 35, Georgia 17

Yesh: How crazy is it that Auburn still controls its own SEC West destiny? This team keeps on getting better and better. Georgia is talented, but something is missing in its chemistry and rhythm this year. Auburn 31, Georgia 13

John: There’s a reason this is called “the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.” Saturday afternoon’s tilt in Athens marks the 120th meeting between the two programs dating back to 1892. Georgia holds the slimmest of edges, winning 56 games compared to Auburn’s 55 with eight ties. This means the Tigers, who are pretty significant road favorites, have a chance to even up the all-time series.

That said, Auburn comes into this game having dealt with myriad injuries to key players recently. Starting quarterback Sean White only played in the second half against Vanderbilt last week. Running back Kamryn Pattway is dealing with a muscle pull but should be cleared to play.

Kirby Smart is still looking for that signature win which will define the first year of his tenure as Dawgs head coach. With Gus Malzahn’s squad on a tear and getting healthier, it doesn’t look like it will happen this weekend. Auburn 27, Georgia 17

Mike: Two teams going in opposite directions. Auburn was left for dead after key off season departures and injuries, and people like me were talking about Gus Malzahn’s replacement. Now Auburn sits as the only other team in the SEC West other than Alabama that still controls its own destiny. They’ve done this with a potent rushing attack and smart play from Sean White. Georgia, meanwhile, after jettisoning Mark Richt, is in Week 11 and still searching for Bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs have two all-world rushers who can’t seem to get plays called for them and a young phenom quarterback still adjusting to playing at the college level. The sixth win will have to wait another week. Auburn 38, Georgia 20

#20 USC at #4 Washington (Saturday 7:30 P.M.)
Line: Washington by 8.5

BERKELEY, CA - NOVEMBER 05: Jake Browning #3 of the Washington Huskies passes the ball against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2016 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
BERKELEY, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Jake Browning #3 of the Washington Huskies passes the ball against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2016 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Steen: USC has gotten a lot better since some midseason changes were made, but a road test against Washington is tough. QB Jake Browning and company have shown the ability to score in bunches, and I don’t think the USC defense can hold up over four quarters. The Huskies should stay in the playoff hunt with a comfortable win. Washington 48, USC 31

Yesh: Can USC challenge Washington? USC has improved drastically since early in the season, but I’ve been bullish on the Huskies and coach Chris Petersen all year. I think that Jake Browning makes a Heisman statement at home this week. Washington 45, USC 14

John: For the first time in quite awhile, Seattle will be the center of the college football world this weekend. Undefeated Washington, now fourth in the CFP rankings after being snubbed a week ago, face a resurgent USC team who come into this game ranked 20th.

Huskie quarterback Jake Browning has established himself as one of the nation’s most efficient signal callers. Despite being ranked 33rd with 252.6 passing yards, Browning has 34 touchdown passes which is the second best total in the nation. Not only that, he’s thrown just three interceptions. It’s a reason his quarterback rating is an absurd 202.79.

On the other side of the field is Trojan quarterback Sam Darnold. Since replacing Max Browne in a close loss to Utah, USC is undefeated, knocking off five straight wins. This will arguably be his toughest test yet against a U-Dub defense allowing just 5.6 pass yards per game, the fifth-best total in FBS.

In front of an atmosphere that might rival that of the pro team in Seattle, Washington continues to roll towards a Pac-12 title and CFP appearance. Washington 45, USC 28

Mike: After starting the season 1-3, USC turned to Sam Darnold and has quietly run off five straight wins, scoring 41 points or more in four of the five. Not to be outdone is Washington, where it seems Chris Petersen is setting the foundation for long-term success. The Huskies are undefeated and in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve put up 66 or more twice on Pac-12 teams this season and have four additional 40-point-plus games. This will be Washington’s toughest regular season opponent remaining, with clearly more talent on defense than Arizona State or Washington State. It might also be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game. Washington’s defensive effort against a young Darnold will be the difference. Washington 31, USC 27

#3 Michigan at Iowa (Saturday 8:00 P.M.)
Line: Michigan by 21.5

ANN ARBOR, MI - NOVEMBER 05: Michigan fans cheer during game action between the Maryland Terrapins and the Michigan Wolverines on November 5, 2016, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MI – NOVEMBER 05: Michigan fans cheer during game action between the Maryland Terrapins and the Michigan Wolverines on November 5, 2016, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Steen: Iowa has been on a losing streak and got exposed against Penn State last week. Michigan has been rolling ever since their win against Wisconsin, and have dominated the Big 10 on both sides of the football. The Wolverines will make the playoff if they win out, and I don’t see Iowa stopping them in this one. Michigan 42, Iowa 14

Yesh: Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country this year, but Iowa will be fired up and will have a good defensive response of its own. Iowa doesn’t have the talent to hang with Michigan this year, but I think the defense can make this three-touchdown spread one that the Hawkeyes can beat. Michigan 31, Iowa 10

John: It hasn’t taken long for Jim Harbaugh to turn Michigan into not only a Big Ten juggernaut but legitimate national title contender. The undefeated Wolverines’ average margin of victory through nine games is an FBS best 37.3 points. To put that in perspective, Washington is second in that metric but six points behind Michigan.

On offense, Wilton Speight has been a pleasant surprise. The junior quarterback won the job over Houston transfer John O’Korn and hasn’t looked back. He leads the Big Ten in quarterback rating (157.98) and is second in completion percentage (64.5). And then there’s Jabrill Peppers on defense and special teams. His versatility has him as a bona-fide Heisman Trophy candidate.

Considering the Hawkeyes gave up 599 yards of total offense against Penn State last week, it’s hard to see them keeping up in this one. And Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard as well as running backs Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels will be hard pressed to get anything going against this extremely physical defense. Michigan 48, Iowa 13

Mike: Don’t think for one second that Jim Harbaugh didn’t see Ohio State’s 62-3 beat down of Nebraska last weekend. In the never-ending struggle to impress the CFP Committee, look for Michigan to keep up with the Meyers by putting pressure on the Hawkeyers early and often, and keep it there the entire game. Iowa has shown an inability to consistently score against good teams (Nine against Wisconsin, 14 against Penn State, and 14 against Minnesota). Michigan’s defense is better than all three of those teams. And the Wolverines have manufactures points all season long. Look for Michigan to continue to keep pace with Alabama and Clemson. Michigan 38, Iowa 10

Main Photo:

October 22, 2016: K.J. Carta-Samuels (11) and Taylor Rapp (21) run through purple smoke at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Christopher Mast/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
October 22, 2016: K.J. Carta-Samuels (11) and Taylor Rapp (21) run through purple smoke at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Christopher Mast/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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